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-- Posted Monday, 28 March 2005 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:00 AM:London Gold Fix $424.90 n.a. LME COPPER STOCKS 45,125 metric tons -1,575 tons COMEX Gold stocks 5.932 ml oz -225 oz COMEX SILVER stocks 102.4 ml Unchanged OVERNIGHT ACTION: A lack of direction in Asia following the extended holiday weekend. GOLD: While the holiday continues to influence the gold market, it would seem like Chinese spot gold was lower overnight and that the Dollar looks to open the new week right at or into new highs for the move. Therefore, we have to think that the bear camp will retain an edge in the near term. While the small spec and fund long in the COT report is probably overstated due to the slide following the mark off date, we suspect that the market remains vulnerable to more stop loss selling. In fact, we suspect that the net spec long position still stands at 130,000 contracts or more, and that certainly puts gold in a potentially weak posture. Therefore, we suspect that June gold is poised to slide toward consolidations support down around $424. In fact, on a rise above 84.31 in the June Dollar we suspect that the selling pressure will increase in gold and that the market will pick up where it left off early last week. In order to turn the tide around in June gold, the market will have to manage a close back above $429.1. SILVER: The silver market showed another downside failure in the early action this morning but did manage to reject part of those losses in the last hour or trade. However, the net spec long in silver was still overbought at 65,000 contracts in the last COT report but certainly that reading was overstated due to the 13 cent decline that took place after the COT report was measured. In other words, the silver market is still vulnerable to more liquidation and the fundamental setup would seem to favor the bear camp. Near term downside targeting in the May silver comes in at $6.88 but a decline to $6.80 would not be surprising when considering all the factors in place this morning. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS ANALYSIS - FUTURES & OPTIONS Mar 1 - Mar 8, 2005 LARGE SPEC COMMERCIAL NON-REPORTABLE NET NET NET POSITION NET CH POSITION NET CH POSITION NET CH SILVER 47284 2136 -70944 -4138 23660 2002 COPPER 37231 3088 -43158 -2785 5926 -304 GOLD 100019 14073 -143018 -18741 42998 4667 PLATINUM 3443 471 -4509 -429 1066 -42 METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 3/28/2005 SILVER (MAY) 03/28/2005: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside objective is 684.8. Some caution in pressing the downside is warranted with the RSI under 30. The next area of resistance is around 699.1 and 705.8, while 1st support hits today at 688.6 and below there at 684.8. GOLD (APR) 03/28/2005: The downside crossover (9 below 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term downtrend. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 422.9. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance is around 425.9 and 427.3, while 1st support hits today at 423.7 and below there at 422.9. To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation. There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Monday, 28 March 2005 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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