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It's All About the Oil



By: Bill Ridley, Online Investors News


-- Posted Thursday, 3 June 2004 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

OnlineInvestorsNews Volume M 9-6, June 1st, 2004

 

www.jameswinston.com  

Today I have reviewed the situation Iraq in relation to how and why the coalition occupation will affect your current dollar, gold, and oil investments. The Bush administration is well aware that there is a global energy crisis looming and steps have been taken to secure oil reserves in the Mid East. Billions of dollars of new debt creation will be needed for this mission to be accomplished which will not bode well for the U.S. dollar. Holding gold and oil related investments remain a smart choice.

Iraq: It’s all About the Oil

Months before the U.S. attacked Iraq last year, I foretold readers that there is no way Bush would  not invade and the reason for the invasion had nothing to do with finding weapons of mass destruction (WMD’s) or any other excuses Bush and company were trying to sell us.

Today we know that there were never any WMD’s but the main stream media still doesn’t understand why U.S. forces are there and why they are unlikely to ever leave.

Iraq Invasion Planned Before September 11, 2001

Five months before September 11th, Vice-president Dick Cheney, chaired a National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG) study on 'energy security' from the Baker Institute for Public Policy, a think-tank set up by James Baker, the former US secretary of state under George Bush Sr.

The report, Strategic Energy Policy Challenges for the 21st Century, concludes: “The United States remains a prisoner of its energy dilemma. Iraq remains a de-stabilizing influence to ... the flow of oil to international markets from the Middle East . Saddam Hussein has also demonstrated a willingness to threaten to use the oil weapon and to use his own export program to manipulate oil markets. Therefore the US should conduct an immediate policy review toward Iraq including military, energy, economic and political/ diplomatic assessments.”

The NEPDG report described how America is facing the biggest energy crisis in its history and recommended the use of 'military intervention' as a means to fix the US energy crisis.

Michael Meacher, a former British Environment Minister (1997-2003) stated that in his view, the NEPDG report was a political smokescreen to cover up the fact that the U.S. and the U.K. are beginning to run out of secure hydrocarbon energy supplies. He went on to say that the 9/11 attacks gave the “ideal pretext to use force” in order to secure the region.

The report is linked to the usual gang of Washington insiders and also representatives of the oil industry. There has been some question as to who these oil industry representatives were and what they suggested their companies could do to solve the global oil problem.

In June of 2001, a political watchdog organization called Truthout filed a suit to demand the full disclosure of the NEPDG report but was blown off by the Bush Administration. Later the General Accounting Office (GOA) got involved and also filed a suit in order to get full disclosure on the report. The GOA had every right to know since Congress approved the budget to have the study done in the first place. However, they had no luck either and the GOA was eventually blackmailed into backing off. The congressional newspaper The Hill reported in February of 2003 that the GAO had dropped its suit after the administration made threats of heavy cuts to their budget.

This all seems very strange. Now after three years the matter is finally going before the Supreme Court who issued a statement in December that it would settle the fight over whether Cheney must disclose the details about the secret contacts he had with energy industry officials.

A ruling is expected by July however I doubt that we will ever find out any more then we already know. It seems that Cheney and his new friend, Justice Antonin Scalia, who will preside over the case, went duck hunting earlier this year. I can only imagine what they discussed.

Though there is much speculation on what else the NEPDG report contained, what we know for sure is that U.S. forces invaded for reasons which have proven to be false but corresponded to the NEPDG report recommendations. However Iraq which has 11% of the world’s oil reserves is just phase 1.

If you believe in the theory that the Bush administration is following the recommendations of the NEPDG report, then Saudi Arabia will be the next country to see a U.S. led security force around their prized Saudi oilfields. Saudi oil represents a whopping 25% of the world’s reserves.

As I have mentioned in the past, Saudi Arabia is on the brink of a revolution. There is in-fighting between the royal families for control and there exists within their population a group of hard core extremists who are bent on toppling the monarchy. One should remember that the money, leadership, and the participants of 9/11 came from Saudi Arabia.

All these facts haven’t been lost on the Bush Administration. The most obvious fact of all is that if Saudi Arabia self-destructs, not only will the U.S. economy go into a tail spin, but the whole world will be in a major economic crisis.

To be honest, the west doesn’t give a damn about the Mid East. If you take away their oil, what are you left with?

Think about it. If there was no oil, the U.S. forces would never have gone to Iraq because U.S. interests would not have been there. If there were no U.S. interests in the Mid East then we wouldn’t have had 9/11 or the ongoing terrorist alerts. Al-Qaeda would not exist because the power structure which has been built around the wealth of oil would never have existed.

It’s nice to dream but the reality is that the world is dependent on oil and one-third of it comes from a relatively small area of land bordering around Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

It’s always been about the oil.

What little we know about the NEPDG report tells enough of the story. Sure some big name oil companies are going to benefit from Mid East oil. What do you expect? U.S. forces haven’t been shedding blood there so China and India can benefit.

We won’t need the Supreme Court to find out which oil executives sat down with Cheney pre 9/11. Those companies will be named in the Wall Street Journal as new drilling and infrastructure contracts are handed out in the months ahead.

Of course for that to happen you would need a large army in place to secure the oil fields and the mass media is telling us that a transfer of power is scheduled for June 30th.

I wish this were the case but unfortunately, it’s not.

Despite the fact that the death tolls of U.S. troops in April were the highest since Vietnam in 1971, the Bush administration has no plans for U.S. troops to withdraw- ever!

Military Presence Maintained

The U.S. and coalition allies have asked the U.N. Security Council to endorse their plans to relinquish power to an interim Iraqi administration on June 30th. However the Bush administration is intending to keep control and command of the military and police forces including Iraqi troops.

With Iraq’s current but dilapidated oil network coming back on line, there is no way U.S. troops will be leaving Iraq anytime soon.

Ambassador Paul Bremer, the Administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq has stated that the U.S. intends to maintain 14 military bases in Iraq with over 100,000 troops which will represent a permanent American presence in the Middle East.

According to a New York Times article, "Top aides to Mr. Bremer have said in recent days that the American troops will act as the most important guarantor of American influence."

However this permanent presence will not be an easy task for the troops on the ground. Escalating violence has cost the lives of over 5500 Iraqis in Baghdad alone over the past few weeks according to the city’s morgue counts.

Military experts assembled by the Lehrer News Hour stated that the situation is dire and has turned into a political and strategic disaster. April saw the heaviest fighting since Hussein’s government was toppled a year ago.

One U.S. Major in Iraq stated “It’s the fight that never came last year. I guess these guys didn't really want to die for Saddam. But all this anti-American feeling is now uniting them.”

You can believe what you want about our involvement in Iraq but in my mind it was never about WMD’s, Saddam, or terrorists. It was always about oil. If it wasn’t – any sane government would get the hell out of there or better yet, would not have gone at all.

As time goes on more truth will be revealed about the oil situation and the Mid East situation. I told you about the Iraq invasion in advance so I’ll give you another heads up. Saudi Arabia is next. More on that later.

Conclusion

As far as the U.S. dollar is concerned, the Iraq situation will only continue to help weaken the greenback.  Many analysts are suggesting that Bush will have to go to Congress before the election in November to ask for a minimum of $70 billion additional funds to support the “rebuilding” effort. As the greenback slides, gold will go up.

 The coming oil and gas shortages are very real. With the U.S. having a growing dependency on oil imports which are estimated to hit 90% by 2020, our economic future is at serious risk. If supplies are not maintained to keep up with the huge increased global demand our already shaky economy will be quickly derailed. Having some exposure to oil and gas investments makes complete sense.

 

 

DISCLAIMER  

OnlineInvestorsNews is an independent electronic publication committed to providing our subscribers with factual information on selected publicly traded companies, politics, business, and economics. All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis, and other pertinent criteria with a view toward maximizing the upside potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible with the added aid of technical analysis.  

OnlineInvestorsNews and its editors do not accept compensation from public companies featured in this publication.  

All statements and expressions are the sole opinions of the editors and are subject to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a company in the newsletter is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein. The staff of OnlineInvestorsNews are not registered investment advisors and do not purport to offer personalized investment related advice. The publisher, staff, or anyone associated with, or associated to, OnlineInvestorsNews may own securities mentioned in this newsletter and may buy or sell securities without notice.    

The profiles, critiques, and other editorial content of the OnlineInvestorsNews may contain forward-looking statements relating to the expected capabilities of the companies mentioned herein. The reader should verify all claims and do their own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk. The information found in this profile is protected by copyright laws and may not be copied, or reproduced in any way without the expressed, written consent of the editors OnlineInvestorsNews.     We encourage our readers to invest carefully and read the investor information available at the web sites of the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") at http://www.sec.gov and/or the National Association of Securities Dealers ("NASD") at http://www.nasd.com. We also strongly recommend that you read the SEC advisory to investors concerning Internet Stock Fraud, which can be found at http://www.sec.gov/consumer/cyberfr.htm.    

Readers can review all public filings by companies at the SEC's EDGAR page. The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at its web site.


-- Posted Thursday, 3 June 2004 | Digg This Article





 



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