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-- Posted Tuesday, 27 July 2010 | Digg This Article | | Source: GoldSeek.com
Spotting the consensus buy at an event like the Agora Financial Investment Symposium in Vancouver last week is a good indicator of the way markets will move. Two years ago they got the stock market crash spot on. This year the consensus pick among this line-up of contrarian speakers was gold by a mile. The 1,000 attendees heartily agreed. Golden tip So does that make gold a certain winner over the next year? ArabianMoney finds it hard to flaw the logic that says it will be. The re-run of the mid to late 70s school of thought is right. We have had the financial accidents of 1973 and 74, and the gold correction of 75. We are perhaps in mid-76, another very hot summer or was that 75? The policy response to the financial crashes has not been so different this time. It took time in the 70s too for inflation to gather speed, and we saw a big deflation of house prices in 74-75. It is no different this time. However, by 1977-8 inflation was picking up speed and it topped out in 1980 with gold at $800 an ounce – eight times higher than its correction in 1975. Adjusted for inflation then that would put gold at $5,000 an ounce by 2013. We have not even seen the start of the ballistic up phase for gold. The past 10 years is only base-building for the rise to come. Gold bug Jim Sinclair has $1,650 by next February and this forecast looks perfectly possible after the usual summer down for the gold price. Remember when he made that prediction the gold price was nearer $400 and then it looked outrageous. Timeless classic Agora investors tend to be an older group and perhaps having a long memory helps in assessing the gold price outlook. Even the clash between Bill Bonner and Marc Faber over inflation and deflation can be rationalized. ArabianMoney caught up with the two gentlemen in the hotel bar and put them on the spot. Mr Bonner back peddled a little to present himself as a ’soft deflationist’, one who sees prices falling before real inflation lifts off. Dr Faber stuck to his inflationist thesis, noting how expensive a glass of wine had become and warning that the world is in the hands of the Fed money printers. It all adds up to gold as a buy in the world of Agora Financial, although it has become so accepted amongst this community that people hardly talk about it anymore. But they are right all the same and this is a consensus contrarian view worth following.
-- Posted Tuesday, 27 July 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
Previous Articles by Peter Cooper
About Peter Cooper:
Oxford University educated financial journalist Peter Cooper found himself made redundant by Emap plc in London in the mid-1990s and decided to rebuild his career in Dubai as launch editor of the pioneering magazine Gulf Business. He returned briefly to London in
1999 to complete his first book, a history of the Bovis construction group.
Then in 2000 he went back to Dubai to become an Internet entrepreneur, just as the dot-com market crashed. But he stumbled across the opportunity to become a partner in www.ameinfo.com, which later became the Middle East's leading English language business news website.
 Over the course of the next seven years he had a ringside seat as editor-in-chief writing about the remarkable transformation of Dubai into a global business and financial hub city. At the same time www.ameinfo.com prospered and was sold in 2006 to Emap plc for $27 million, completing the career circle back to where it began a decade earlier.
He remains a lively commentator and columnist as a freelance journalist based in Dubai and travels extensively each summer with his wife Svetlana. His financial blog www.arabianmoney.net is attracting increasing attention with its focus on investment in gold and silver as a means of prospering during a time of great consumer price inflation and asset price deflation.
Order my book online from this link
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Why Gold Is Still the Best Buy for Agora Investors
