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Peter Spina, Founder GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC><center><font color=
A Great Investment in a Great Bull Market


By: Peter Spina, Founder GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com


-- Posted Monday, 19 November 2007 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

Record metal prices continue to dominate headlines as the great bull market in Gold & Silver Price Breakout!precious metals and resources marches forward.  Gold recently broke through the $800 milestone and silver $15.  I suspect these are just the beginning moves of the next major bull market leg higher.  I expect $1,000+ gold and $20+ silver as the next short-term targets, by the end of 2008, if not much sooner.

 

During this bull phase, mining stocks are going to be revalued quickly, greatly rewarding investors who select the top mining investments.  To outperform the markets you will then need an investment that will surpass its peers.  I have selected one that is on course to join an elite group of ultra low-cost producers.

 

Last year I introduced you to an IPO founded by the Reid brothers; co-founders of the very successful US Gold Corp.  I was very excited by the initial prospects of this $100/ounce future gold producer and with over a year of progress now completed, I believe the story is substantially more exciting today.

 

Just a few weeks ago Gold Resource Corp. [OTCBB: GORO] announced a 166% increase it its mineralized material estimate. Taking the April 11th gold equivalent ounces from nearly ¼ million to nearly ¾ million ounces!

 

Mineralized Material Estimate Update

 

With such a substantial increase, management has increased production targets. Large increases were made in the year 2 and 3 where the goal now is for 120,000 gold equivalent ounces/year and then sustaining that production level. The resource increase has also allowed for a 6 year mine life target. 

 

Based off recent drill holes, some with bonanza grades, I feel it would be safe to project a 1 million+ resource estimate and 10 year mine life target is possible with continued success over the next several months as drilling and exploration continue. There is also the potential that annual production levels could be moved even higher than current targets.

  

Annual Production Targets

 

Ultimately Gold Resource Corp. comes down to a low cost emerging producer.  Not many companies can compete in the category of “low-cost producers” and even fewer will be able to show potential cash flow and dividends per share like Gold Resource Corp. is targeting!

 

$750 Gold Scenario

 

Assuming a totally diluted share structure of 37M and a $750 gold scenario, by year 3 the cash flow could be well over $2 per share! A 1/3 dividend payout is targeted and therefore 70 cents a year is possible. That would equate to a 16.5% dividend yield at today’s stock price!

 

$1K Gold Scenario

 

Now with gold heading for $1,000/ounce and higher, the likely ‘$1k Gold Scenario’ is even more lucrative.  Cash flow immediately would run to $1.70/share during the 1st year of production with it reaching nearly $3/share in year 3!  Take again the 1/3 dividend payout and nearly $1/share is possible! That takes the dividend yield to 23.5% at today’s stock price!!

 

Dividends

 

A note on dividend yields.  Today’s average S&P 500 Dividend yield average is just around 1 ¾%.  Most production metal and mining companies, that even do pay dividends, are averaging well under 1%.  The copper sector has among the highest dividend yields, under the basic materials classification, with the average sector (per Yahoo Finance’s calculations) at just around 3%.

 

At the current share price, if even the low-end targets are reached - from the perspective of a dividend payout only - one could see a share justification of $20+/share. Take the $1/share potential dividend and 2% yield assumption; the share price valuation would be at $50.  There are many criteria that go into the valuation of a mining share price. I wanted to use the dividend valuations perspective to show what possible share valuations could be possible under these circumstances.

 

With such terrific projects in Oaxaca, Mexico the next question moves on to management. Gold Resource Corp. was founded by Bill and David Reid, who co-founded US Gold Corp. (UXG) since its inception in 1977 until late 2005, when Rob McEwen - founder of Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) - purchased 1/3 of US Gold Corp. which resulted in an approximately 2,300% increase in US Gold's share price. During their time at US Gold Corp., the Reid's "built or participated" in 6 producing mines.

 

With that covered, the next focus is on the development of the mine. One of the most significant steps towards permitting in Mexico is the local Ejido (agrarian community) agreements. Back in October Gold Resource Corp. received approval from the local San Pedro Totolapam Ejido to allow for mine development at its El Aguila Project. This all important step prepares them for the Federal Mining Permit.

 

But before mine development can commence in earnest, additional funding is necessary for its construction and commissioning. In the near future, Gold Resource Corp. will undergo funding of upwards of $25M+.  With current share price levels, it appears we are going to reach around 37M outstanding shares fully diluted making this one of the best share-structured emerging producers!

 

 

4 Properties in Oaxaca, Mexico - All Feeding One Mill

 

Once funded, Gold Resource Corp. is set to be in production in about a year from now.  The company has set a strategy of using 1/3 of future cash flow to further develop the company, therefore maximizing shareholder value by minimizing share dilution.  Some of this capital is likely to be used in the development of other projects in Oaxaca, Mexico.

 

4 High-Grade Projects

 

Gold Resource Corp. has the potential for a total of 4 high-grade projects all of which could be feeding one mill. The El Rey project, most notably, released drill results in the past few weeks which included 132.5 g/t gold over a 1 meter intercept! It appears that a high-grade gold vein has been intersected and further drill exploration programs looks to outline this potential new gold structure. Stay tuned.

 

Yet the excitement of the other 3 projects should not take our focus off the immediate prize. El Aguila is a property with 3 known high-grade deposits with multiple targets. Production is targeted in the 2nd half of 2008.  The $100 production cost will allow for CAPEX payback of just 6 months.

 

8km Mineralized Trend

 

The current focus at the El Aguila project is on the 2km out of an 8km mineralized trend.  The El Aguila mine will be an open-pit, with mostly gold production.  The following years will bring attention into El Aire / La Arista, where high levels of precious metals and base metals will be mined.

 

Mineralized Material Estimate Breakdown

 

The breakdown of the gold equivalent number is provided above (please note the conversion values which were used for the calculations). As the system grows, more base metals are also being added to the growing precious metals resource estimate. High grade levels of lead, zinc and copper are being encountered with the majority of high grade resources coming from precious metals (gold & silver). Pursuant to industry practices, Gold Resource Corp.’s base metals will be used as credits against costs of precious metals production.

 

Geomagnetic Survey

 

Map above: Intrusives are potentially large bodies of crystallized igneous rock formed from magma that has forced its way up through subsurface rock units. Intrusives potentially generate the source of and / or the plumbing system for certain mineral deposits.

Latest News: During compilation of this report Gold Resource Corp. announced that they:

“Recently completed a geomagnetic survey over an approximate 2 kilometer area of its El Aguila Project. The geomagnetic survey … indicates several anomalies. Two significant anomalies occur in the La Arista area. The first anomaly in the La Arista area is located over the highest grades and most extensive widths of mineralization drilled to date (See map).

The second important geomagnetic anomaly in this area is located about 200 meters south east from the first anomaly (See map) and in an area not yet explored.”

“Not yet explored,” is just another indication that we have tremendous resource growth potential at the El Aguila project alone. But read Gold Resource Corporation's president Bill Reid’s comments below and one can see the potential that this system is growing into a monstrous system:

"We continue to be impressed with the La Arista area as to the width and high-grade nature of the mineralization. Additional deeper high-grade intercepts in essentially the bottom of Hole #7083 indicate we have not yet found the vertical limits to the mineralization. In addition, it bodes well that the recent geophysical survey indicates two significant geomagnetic highs in this area that potentially indicate that this mineralization has an extent and depth much greater than we previously anticipated. These distinctive geophysical anomalies may represent igneous intrusives at depth that could play a role in the source and distribution of the mineralization."

"Drilling, and now geomagnetics, continues to bolster our belief that the El Aguila Project is a potentially very large, robust and high-grade epithermal system." – Bill Reid, President G.R.C.

I feel confident that continued progress will yield tremendous expansion of resources for Gold Resource Corp.  I believe last year’s drilling/exploration progress in bringing shareholders a much larger resource will lead the way to next year’s successful construction and commencement of mining of this high grade project.  As the company expands and builds the mine and as it continues to define the size and scope of the resources, I would believe there is a good possibility Gold Resource Corp. could eventually see a multi-million ounce+ gold equivalent resource. 

If the company successfully enters into production and meets their targets, there is little from stopping this company to turning into an “ATM on steroids”.  Usually a company has a main feature or two which makes its story exciting, Gold Resource Corp. has many. Some of which include:

  •      $100 Production Costs – Emerging low cost producer
  •      Excellent share structure: Projected 37M shares fully diluted
  •      1/3 dividend payout targeted
  •      4 High Potential Projects
  •      Rapidly Expanding Mineralized Material Estimates
  •      Focusing on projects with less than 1 year CAPEX payback
  •      Management - have placed 6 mines into production
  •      No debt
  •      Sub $150M market capitalization

Last year I needed confirmation to feel confident in my $5-OTCBB: GORO  Chart10 share price estimate. Should Gold Resource Corp. stay on track and meet their targets, using current assumptions, I could easily see a $10-20 price with much more upside through additional discoveries. We have a lot of good indications to lead us to believe that the potential of this system could be much larger. Therefore I do believe there remains a much larger upside potential than $20 with current and future metal price trends.

That level of risk/reward is one which continues to make this one of my top holdings.  It is a story I am excited to follow into year two and onwards.  Please take some more time and learn more about Gold Resource Corp. and further your research. The company remains under the radar screen of many metal investors.  I believe that opportunity may not last too much longer.

 

-         Peter Spina, Founder of GoldSeek.com

 

Click here to download this report in PDF format.

 

 

Click here to download this report - PDF format.

 

 

 

Please note: I am a shareholder of Gold Resource Corp. and the company is an advertiser on a website I am the proprietor of, GoldSeek.com.

 

 

For further research and information:

 

     Past Gold Resource Corp. Reports:

o        November, 2006: http://news.goldseek.com/PeterSpina/1163510603.php

o        January, 2007 Update: http://news.goldseek.com/PeterSpina/1169579532.php

 

     Gold Resource Corp Resources:

o        GoldSeek.com Goldcast Presentation: http://www.goldseek.com/goldcasts/GORO/

o        GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget Interview: Bill Reid: http://radio.goldseek.com/billreidgoldnugget.php

Peter Spina's Free E-Mail List: www.GoldSeek.com/email

 

Latest Gold Price & Investor Information: www.GoldSeek.com
Latest Silver Price & Investor Information: www.SilverSeek.com

 

Additional Research & Reports:
www.goldforecaster.com
www.silverforecaster.com


- November, 2007

Disclaimer & Additional Disclosure
The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions. The author of this report is not a registered financial advisor. The author has received a compensation fee for research, publishing, distribution along with the marketing services provided on the author's website, www.goldseek.com. Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Authors have taken precautions to ensure accuracy of information provided. Information collected and presented are from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond our control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in stock reports are not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market.

 

Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation by the publisher, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities & therefore information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

 

GoldSeek.com is a leader in precious metals information, established in 1995 and ranked as one of the most visited gold resource website in the world. More information can be found at www.GoldSeek.com and the author may be contacted via: http://www.goldseek.com/contact.php


-- Posted Monday, 19 November 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com


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Peter Spina's experience with the precious metal markets started back in the mid-1990s, which led to the creation of GoldSeek.com back in 1995. Today GoldSeek.com ranks in the top three most popular global gold websites and its sister site, SilverSeek.com ranks as the most visited silver website in the world. Back at the start of the new secular precious metals bull market, Peter established the technically-focused subscription newsletter, Gold Seeker Report, which at the start of 2005 was merged into the more comprehensive Gold Forecaster (goldforecaster.com) service. In addition to the newsletter and websites, Peter frequently appears in the media including MarketWatch, Reuters, and theStreet.com








 



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