-- Posted Tuesday, 6 November 2007 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Clif Droke asks in his headline "Is Recession Unavoidable?" If I had been assigned that topic upon which to write the definitive essay, I could have saved both the readers and me a lot of time with my easy, succinct, one-word essay; "No."
Mr. Droke is obviously not as lazy or worthless as I am, nor as impressed with my startling brevity, which is supposed to be the soul of wit, and says the same thing by quoting a letter he had received from a reader of his, who writes, "I work for Yellow Freight (YRC Worldwide). I can tell you that volume has dropped drastically over the past year and it is very slow right now considering this is the busy time of year for transportation. Our volume has dropped down to half of what it was last year at this time."
Not unsurprisingly, then, "Earnings are dropping at all transportation carriers." Then he reminds us that "transportation companies are leading indicators for the state of the economy", which I remember learning a long time ago, but since I don't trade for a living anymore, I kind of fell away from paying attention to this kind of fundamental analysis. So, sheepishly, I go and look at the Dow Jones Transportation Average, and sure enough, it DOES look kind of punkish!
So if this is a leading indicator, then watch out!
But the surprising thing is that shipping volume dropped by half! Wow! Before I can digest this terrifying bit of news, he goes on, "I believe we are in a recession because people are not buying. I also believe the Fed is lying to the general public in regards to the state of the economy."
Well, as to the latter belief, only an idiot could ever believe that the government is not lying, as there are actually very few instances in history when a government was NOT lying!
And as to the former belief, it must be true, or retailers would be ordering more stuff, which would then need to be shipped, and the letter writer would be on the road, jamming those gears and honking the horn, honk, honk!
Even worse, according to Say's Law, if people aren't buying, then they aren't producing, either, notwithstanding some bizarre, weird, corrupt, once-in-a-lifetime massive buying spree paid for by idiotic consumers and suicidal governments amassing massive amounts of debt, colossal amounts of debt, so staggeringly much backbreaking debt that it makes me want to scream in horror at the prospect, which I often do.
Apparently horrified at the prospect of a Chilling Mogambo Scream Of Terror (CMSOT), Mr. Droke changes the subject completely, and says that Robert Shiller, the "famous Yale university economist," has actually said that "the collapse of home prices might turn out to be the most severe since the Great Depression", which I fully agree with; but (unbelievably) he also said that "The Federal Reserve will undoubtedly take aggressive actions, which will mitigate its severity."
Mitigation? I read this, and then I look at how Mr. Shiller is a "famous Yale university economist", and I think to myself that famous or not, Yale or not, this is a pretty stupid thing to say, because if the Federal Reserve takes "aggressive actions", whatever "mitigation" of the bust is achieved will only be by virtue of postponing the rest of the pain and suffering, which will be paid for by continually more inflation in prices.
To think otherwise, as this famous-yet-laughable bonehead has done, is to get the stupid idea that there is such a thing as a partial free lunch! This guy is saying that there IS such a thing as a free lunch! Hahaha! Bigshot Yale economist! Hahahaha! Free lunch!
I mean, this Robert Shiller guy is literally saying that, thanks to the Federal Reserve "aggressively" lowering interest rates or something, we can have a monetary boom and only have to suffer a portion of the bust, if the Federal Reserve acts, which will somehow minimize the bust, which is the equivalent of going to a nice restaurant, ordering a 5-course steak dinner, eating the dinner while stuffing rolls ("Hey! Waiter! More rolls over here, dude!") and extra silverware into your pockets when they aren't looking, and at the end, only paying for the salad! And everything will be fine! Hahaha!
Well, I hope it works out like this, and it ends up working better for me than the old tried-and-true, "climbing out of the bathroom window trick to achieve essentially the same result!" I love this Yale economics stuff! Hahahaha!
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Editor's Note: Richard Daughty is general partner and COO for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the editor of The Mogambo Guru economic newsletter - an avocational exercise to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it.
The Mogambo Guru is quoted frequently in Barron's, The Daily Reckoning and other fine publications.
-- Posted Tuesday, 6 November 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
