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Slithering Toward The Fire Escape

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

-- Posted Friday, 11 March 2005 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

Rick’s Picks

Friday, March 11, 2005

For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky 

With bonds up and oil down, Wall Street breathed a small sigh of relief yesterday, sending the Dow Industrials moderately higher in an otherwise eventless session. Despite the rally, we still feel pretty good about our short in the S&P. There are two good reasons for this: first, we initiated the position at an unbeatable price, 1229.50; and second, Monday’s price peak in the Dow at 10984 generated some of  the ugliest stochastic readings since December’s top. Check out the chart. Each series of price tops since late 2004 has generated correspondingly lower stochastic peaks on the daily chart. This suggests that, as the Dow was making higher highs, sellers were becoming more aggressive, buyers more timid.

Sometimes it is quiet distribution that puts a top on a rally, but the distribution evident in the chart is of a less subtle variety, more closely akin to an anaconda making its way across 42nd Street.  A serendipitous pullback in oil over the next few days could make it easier for the smart money to slither a little closer to the exits, but they shouldn’t count on this factor to endure for long. As you may be aware, we’ve already projected a rally in crude to at least 59.72, basis April. But oil quotes would only have to firm slightly to touch off a new wave of fear on the Street. Anyone who loads up on stocks at these levels is probably laundering money. We’ll relax and enjoy the spectacle for a day or two, keeping an eye on our short-S&P position in case folly should erupt into hysteria.


Precise Targets for Gold, Oil and Bonds

Grappling with the trend? Check out Rick’s Picks’ archives to see how well Rick Ackerman has done with his forecasts and trading strategies for the following:  Apple Computer (AAPL), Barrick Gold (ABX), Agnico-Eagle (AEM), Afrikander Lease Ltd. (AFKDY), Apollo Gold (AGT), Applied Materials (AMAT), Amgen (AMGN), Amazon (AMZN), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), AU (Anglogold Ashanti), Bema Gold (BGO), Baker Hughes Inc (BHI), Beazer Homes (BZH), Citigroup (C), Canyon Resources (CAU), Cambior (CBJ), CCJ (Cameco), Coeur d’Alene, Centerpoint Energy (CNP), Cree Inc. (CREE), Cyberonics (CYBX), D.R. Horton (DHI), Durban Roodeport (DROOY), eBay (EBAY), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Fannie Mae (FNM), Great Basin Gold (GBN), Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI), Goldcorp (GG), Glamis Gold (GLG), Gammon Lake Resources (GRS), Golden Star Resources (GSS), Hecla Mining (HL),   Health Management Associates (HMA), Harmony Gold (HMY), Iamgold (IAG), Kinross Gold (KGC), Linux Gold (LNXGF), Loews Corp (LTR), Magnetek (MAG), Minefinders Corp (MNF), Microsoft (MSFT), Newmont Mining (NEM), Northfield Laboratories (NFLD), Northern Orion Resources (NTO), Northgate Minerals (NXG), Pan American Silver (PAAS), North American Palladium (PAL), Phelps Dodge (PD), Placer Dome (PD), PMC-Sierra Inc (PMCS), Pacific Rim (PMU), Randgold & Exploration ADR (RANGY), Research In Motion (RIMM), Sears, Roebuck (S), Seabridge Gold (SA), Silverado Gold Mines (SLGLF), Sterling Mining (SRLM), Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), Suncor Energy (SU), Stillwater Mining (SWC), Taser International (TASR), Tan Range Exploration (TRXAF), Vista Gold (VGZ), Wheaton River Minerals (WHT), Western Silver (WTZ), Exxon-Mobil (ZOM). Futures contracts and indexes: E-mini S&P, Mini-Dow, Diamonds, Crude Oil, Bonds, E-mini Nasdaq, Gold, Silver, Palladium, Copper, Crude Oil, Palladium, Natural Gas, QQQ, OEX, Euro, Yen, Dollar, Cotton, Coffee, Lean Hogs, Sugar, Soybeans, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Semiconductor Index.

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2005, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. 

-- Posted Friday, 11 March 2005 | Digg This Article


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