-- Posted Friday, 15 April 2005 | Digg This Article

Rick’s Picks

Friday, April 15, 2005

For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky 

There are days when Wall Street easily could have shrugged off word from IBM of a five-cent earnings shortfall, but yesterday wasn’t one of them. Big Blue reported 85 cents a share for the first quarter, but the analysts’ "dartboard number" evidently was a nickel higher. The announcement came two days earlier than expected, but judging from the way the stock has been falling all week, everyone on the Street  knew what was coming. Ordinarily, experienced investors might be looking for a bullish opening this morning, since rumors of earnings weakness obviously have been factored into Beamer's current share price. But the actual news came out after the close, and that's bound to create intense selling pressure overnight (assuming world peace doesn’t break out in the interim.)

Meanwhile, those able to dump stock in after-hours trading have sent IBM shares plummeting 5 percent, all but guaranteeing that Big Blue will open this morning at a new 52-week low. The broad averages were also getting hit, raising fears of an avalanche at the opening. At the very least, tech stocks are going to get savaged for IBM’s shortcomings. But does bad news from a single corporate bellwether mean that all of the other tech stocks are likely to disappoint?  The answer hardly matters, since, as we all know, survival in this game often comes down to racing a bunch of idiots to the fire escape. My guess is that, when the opening bell rings, the optimists will be in short supply.

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Gold Support Must Hold

Yesterday’s broad-based decline in the precious metals sector did serious technical damage to bullion charts. In today’s advisory I’ve identified a target in the HUI about 5 percent below Thursday’s settlement price. However, if it fails, the next, also precisely identified, is quite a bit lower, implying that the bear leg begun two weeks ago has significantly farther to go.

 Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2005, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 

-- Posted Friday, 15 April 2005 | Digg This Article

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