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Wall of Worry Theory ‘Twaddle’

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks


-- Posted Monday, 6 March 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Monday, March 6, 2006

For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky 

Until the final hour or so on Friday the stock market seemed to be holding its own against an onslaught of negative news. Topping the list was a sales warning from Intel. The stock opened sharply lower on the news, but rallied back to fill the gap by day’s end. The broad averages followed suit but ultimately closed well off their highs because of the final-hour selloff. On balance, however, and despite the fact that the major averages settled below the previous day’s close, it looked like the bulls carried the day.

Sometime around mid-session, when stocks were trading near their highs, a broker for Alaron was on CNBC, breathlessly trumpeting a stock market that for months has been climbing a supposed wall of worry. Some would say that stocks have done no such thing – that shares are in a warp, absolutely oblivious to reality but responsive nonetheless to an unabated flow of investor dollars.

What Are You Doing?

And the proof? You need look no farther than your own portfolio. Have you switched your retirement fund to fixed-incomes? Given your broker targets and stop-losses to get you out of stocks? Tuned out the bullish drone of CNBC and the retail analysts? Exactly. While quite a few of us are alarmed at the economy’s deterioration, especially in the all-important housing sector, none of us is even contemplating bailing out. It’s go-along until “something” changes the picture.

Well, don’t be surprised if the picture changes dramatically while we’re asleep, leaving no easy path for escape when U.S. markets open for business. As for the supposed Wall of Worry, that’s just a lot of twaddle. In fact, the news is always bad at best and skin-crawling scary at worst. If the Dow Industrials were in a bear cycle now rather than a bull, those very same stories that we read each morning on the front page would seem much worse than a mere wall of worry: they’d look like a tsunami. It is the mood of the markets that colors our perception of the news, not the other way around.    

*** 

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2006, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com


-- Posted Monday, 6 March 2006 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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