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Reader’s Guide To Housing Bust

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks


-- Posted Thursday, 1 June 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Thursday, June 1, 2006

For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky 

The Rick’s Picks switchboard lit up like a string of Black Cats yesterday as alarmed readers responded to my wake-up call ahead of America’s impending real estate crash. The sole skeptic has been Frank P, a useful idiot whose thoughts served as counterpoint to the discussion we had on the topic yesterday. Turns out I’m not the only one Frank has been pestering with his odd ideas, including the surreal notion that there is no housing bubble. Louis Hill, author of what looks to be an excellent primer on the gathering bust, has been stalked by Frank, and so, evidently, have others of the bearish persuasion. I won’t dwell any longer on his crackpot ideas, but I shouldn’t pass up this opportunity to refer you to Hill’s fascinating Web site , where you can order up an instant eCopy of his book. It contains some useful chapters on surviving the crash, as well as a lucid and compelling explanation of how we got into this mess. I would also recommend visiting the wonderfully eclectic blog of Charles Hugh Smith, a Steve McQueen lookalike and apparent Sinophile who thought Hill’s book was terrific.

I mentioned that Frank had sent me some head-in-the-sand dispatches from Bloomberg et al. implying that talk of a housing bust is just alarmism. What I did not realize until yesterday was that for every word of such nonsense that comes out of Bloomberg, there are fifty lucid words from other sources to serve as a reality check. Below is a short list of links sent to me by a reader, in case you’d like to get up to speed. The topics cover housing-bust news for only about the last week or so, but it’s a pretty good sampling of the genre. It would be unusual, I must admit, for something so well anticipated and well documented to precipitate out exactly as expected. Even so, the collection of news stories below will leave you with little doubt that homeowners are teetering on the edge of a deflationary crisis:

Pick Your Topic…

These links were taken from: http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

Wed May 31 2006 Fort Lauderdale: Houses for sale reach 11.4-month supply
Wed May 31 2006 Napa house sales slow (napavalleyregister.com)
Wed May 31 2006 Speculators say adiós to Tucson house market (tucsoncitizen.com)
Wed May 31 2006 Housing permits lose steam (floridatoday.com)
Wed May 31 2006 Facing Foreclosure in Wisconsin (wkowtv.com)
Wed May 31 2006 Sacramento Region built 10 percent of new California housing
Wed May 31 2006 Housing Bubble Fact or Fiction? (foxnews.com)
Tue May 30 2006 How to Buy a $450K House for $750K (Charles Hugh Smith)
Tue May 30 2006 Buyers hope for still lower prices as sellers wait for return of boom
Tue May 30 2006 No one comes knocking, despite lowered price (heraldtribune.com)
Tue May 30 2006 The Big Glut (barrons.com)
Tue May 30 2006 It's a renter's market (palmbeachpost.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Real estate agents may have to throw in the kitchen sink
Tue May 30 2006 California foreclosure activity is rising (dailynews.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Cape leads foreclosure surge in MA (capecodonline.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Mortgage defaults on rise in Chicago (chicagotribune.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Twin Cities foreclosures climb at record pace (twincities.com)
Tue May 30 2006 The Growing Financial Risks of the Housing Bubble (Charles Hugh Smith)
Tue May 30 2006 As housing market slips, consider new tactics (sunherald.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Easy-to-get loans cause thousands to lose homes (palmbeachpost.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Housing: More Inventory (Calculated Risk)
Tue May 30 2006 Sales fall, prices level off as market turns in S. Florida

Tue May 30 2006 Greenspan Predicts Housing Bust (Mish)
Tue May 30 2006 Hot ideas for a cooling housing market (miami.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Leading Realtor sounds warning (orlandosentinel.com)
Tue May 30 2006 To succeed in a tough market, you've got to change your strategy
Tue May 30 2006 Don't bet your house on it (economist.com)
Tue May 30 2006 S. Florida house sales fall in April (miami.com)
Tue May 30 2006 Sales of used houses plunge (palmbeachpost.com)
Tue May 30 2006 New houses a hard sell in changing market (sptimes.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Foreclosure Rates Soar in Metropolitan Chicago (yahoo.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Housing prices in S. Fla. remain in a rut (sun-sentinel.com)
Fri May 26 2006 House, condo sales fall sharply in April (naplesnews.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Housing market hangs in Fed's balancing act (usatoday.com)
Fri May 26 2006 New signs of cooling housing market (Associated Press)
Fri May 26 2006 In ARMs way: Taking a chance (philly.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Home Not So Sweet Home (journals.aol.com)
Fri May 26 2006 As rates rise, foreclosures surge (msnbc.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Fannie Mae's disgraceful bonuses (sptimes.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Fannie Mae -- Arrogant, Chastised and Not Reformed (bloomberg.com)
Fri May 26 2006 Housing Prices and Use Value (Mike Alexander)
Thu May 25 2006 Mass. house, condo sales plunge (bostonherald.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Boston house sales plunge 16.5% in April (lowellsun.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Foreclosure fear grows in Sacramento region (sacbee.com)
Thu May 25 2006 April New House Sales: 1,198,000 (Calculated Risk)
Thu May 25 2006 Foreclosures in Las Vegas Are on The Rise (klastv.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Lower mortgage rates don't spur loan demand (usatoday.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Is the housing bubble bursting? (msn.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Study Finds 'Extensive' Fraud at Fannie Mae (washingtonpost.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Endangered Species: The Real Estate Agent (freakonomics.com)
Thu May 25 2006 Inflation and Housing: Calculating the Bust (Charles Hugh Smith)
Thu May 25 2006 Sales of New Houses Jump Unexpectedly, But Prices Fall
Thu May 25 2006 A record glut of houses for sale in Mass. should send prices tumbling
Thu May 25 2006 Colorado Foreclosure Rate #1 Again (krdotv.com)
Wed May 24 2006 US hard landing starts now (moneyweek.com)
Wed May 24 2006 AZ real-estate agents optimistic, at least for buyers (newszap.com)
Wed May 24 2006 Fannie Mae Manipulated Accounting (yahoo.com)
Wed May 24 2006 Fannie Mae Regulator Says Growth Should Be `Limited'
Wed May 24 2006 Real estate cool-down has many shifting gears (recordnet.com)
Wed May 24 2006 Housing Prices vs. "Use Value" (safehaven.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Housing futures debut as bubble deflates (reuters.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Housing worries continue to cloud economic picture
Tue May 23 2006 Fed's Fisher says inflation running too high (reuters.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Housing disconnect (marketwatch.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Foreclosures up 39 percent in 1Q (msn.com)
Tue May 23 2006 The high price of land-use planning (sfgate.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Seller Hires Actors To Pretend Neighborhood Occupied (Steve Bartin)
Tue May 23 2006 Has the Bubble Finally Burst? (princetoninfo.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Lennar leaving CO market (coloradoan.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Hawaii rents turning in tenants' favor (honoluluadvertiser.com)
Tue May 23 2006 Feds close house appraisal scheme (suntimes.com)
Mon May 22 2006 A Landing Yes, but Soft?
Mon May 22 2006 The Growl of a Housing Bear
Mon May 22 2006 California has the top 11 least-affordable markets
Mon May 22 2006 Right now, buyers can be choosers
Mon May 22 2006 House flippers' investments flop
Mon May 22 2006 Housing: 10% Decline May Trigger Financial Ruin
Mon May 22 2006 Buyers control market
Mon May 22 2006 Home sellers beware

*** 

Hidden-Pivot Seminar 

Quite a few of you have indicated you are likely to attend the hidden-pivot seminar in New York this October. I’ve also heard from about a half-dozen Australian readers and subscribers who said they’re interested but that it would be too far to travel. However, I’m willing to come to Sydney or Melbourne if I can fill a class, so let me please hear from you if that would work.

The New York session will be a no-frills version of the course that I gave in Denver, offered at a significant saving over the original price. After that there will probably be just one more session offered – in San Francisco, late in 2006 or early 2007 -- but that would be the last for a long while.

The course includes post-grad mentoring via a chat group that some of my former students have set up. If you’ve been impressed with the accuracy of my forecasts, this is an opportunity you should not pass up. Please let me know via e-mail if you are serious about coming.

***

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2006, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 


-- Posted Thursday, 1 June 2006 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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