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Why Rates Will Continue to Rise

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks


-- Posted Wednesday, 28 June 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky 

So much for my “double-bagger” scenario, which had the Fed raising interest rates 50 basis points on Thursday instead of the widely expected 25. This would have flashed a clear signal that the tightening cycle begun two years ago was over, giving Wall Street, with its addiction to loose money, reason to celebrate, even if only briefly. But if things were actually about to play out that way, we should not have expected to see the stock market fall as sharply as it did yesterday. Shares suffered broad losses and the Dow Industrials fell 121 points, wiping out the previous days gains and more.

So what might this portend? Much as we should like to think that short-term rates are peaking, the more likely scenario is one that investors would rather not think about – i.e., that interest rates are going to continue to move higher for the foreseeable future.

Global Liquidity Squeeze

 Some good reasons for this are spelled out in the latest edition of The Privateer, an excellent, Australia-based financial newsletter published by William Buckler. He notes in the late June edition that a global liquidity squeeze just begun will force the U.S. to keep raising rates in order to attract the approximately $1 trillion in foreign lending that is required annually to keep U.S consumption engine chugging along. A major source of such funds is the yen carry trade, which has allowed investors to borrow yen for practically nothing and then to invest the proceeds in U.S. Treasurys. But that game is due to end soon, notes Buckler, because the Bank of Japan has been draining excess reserves at a spectacular rate in order to head off an expansionary cycle of borrowing by consumers at home. In addition, the BOJ is expected to raise short-term rates by 0.25 percent in mid-July.

China has tightened as well, raising its bank reserve requirements to 8.0 percent from 7.5 in order to cool investment fever there. This will be sharply contractionary because, as Buckler points out, it will subject both new and existing loans to the higher reserve requirement. The liquidity squeeze is in evidence globally, and, as Buckler notes, “the world’s bond markets are waking up to this.

Tightening ‘Everywhere’

“As of June 20 As of June 20, US 10-year bonds yielded 5.13 percent, up 74 basis points since the start of this year. Japan’s 10-year bonds are at 1.85 percent, up 36 basis points. Germany’s are at 3.94 percent, up 63 basis points. Canada’s are at 4.40 percent, up 43 basis points. Australia’s are at 5.76 percent, up 43 basis points. This is a GLOBAL credit squeeze.”

Indeed. And it will force the U.S. to keep pushing rates higher to avoid a global savaging of the dollar. Not surprisingly, and like everyone else who is not deaf, dumb and blind to economic reality, Buckler sees only bullish prospects for gold. We couldn’t agree more strongly.

***

Trading Notes

In yesterday’s Touts I projected a short-able rally peak in August Crude at 72.45, a hidden pivot resistance that missed the intraday high by just 0.05 points. The subsequent pullback was sharp, amounting to 85 cents/barrel in just a few hours, but I have my doubts that it will continue. Since there was a fat profit to be had by covering near yesterday’s lows, I wouldn’t try to squeeze much extra mileage out of this one, so consider covering overnight if you stayed with it.  We also exited a position in JetBlue, coming away with a profit of as much as $700 on an original 400 shares purchased in mid-May, just a day before the stock took off.

***

Vancouver Seminar a ‘Go’ 

The Hidden Pivot Seminar in Vancouver is a definite “go” for the last weekend in October, so please let me know via-email  if you’re interested in attending. The event is being produced by a long-time Rick’s Picks reader who wants to introduce his investment clients to my technical methods.

The two-day class is geared to teaching traders of all skill levels the rudiments of my proprietary Hidden Pivot System. Post-grad mentoring in a chat-room is included so that students can master the techniques learned in the classroom in a real-time setting.

Dates are not yet firm for seminars to be held in San Francisco and Sydney, Australia, but it looks like they will take place either in November 2006 or February 2007. Both classes are filling up, so let me know soon if you’d like to attend.

***

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2006, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 


-- Posted Wednesday, 28 June 2006 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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