For investors who’d rather be smart than lucky

Although I have taken few steps personally to prepare for a possible bird flu pandemic, I have several friends who have been diligently attending to this grim task. One is a childhood pal from New Jersey who has been stockpiling food and water while attempting to round up a supply of Tamiflu and other medications, including herbal remedies whose use dates back to Roman times. Another, Erich S., is a long-time pen-pal and subscriber who has re-ordered his life so that he can learn all there is to know about the remarkably deadly virus and the steps needed to prepare properly for its onslaught, which he sees as inevitable.

I cannot judge whether Erich is too close to the facts to assess them dispassionately. I could have assured you confidently in 1999 that Y2K would be a bust, but that’s only because I made my living for two years interviewing people in a position to prevent the computer glitch from overwhelming the world’s machinery. This time around, I’m as clueless as nearly everbody else. I simply haven’t been able to find time to learn all that is known about the H5 virus.

But I can nonetheless vouch for Erich’s discernment, intelligence and diligence, as well as his essentially skeptical nature. He and a group of friends are on a virtual Red Alert, convinced that a global panic is close at hand. For my part, I must confess to having avoided even contemplating so dark a scenario as he envisions, one with billions of virus-related deaths in the offing. My own deflation scenario is about as much doomsday thinking as I can handle. Unlike the prospect of an avian-flu pandemic, it is something I can get a handle on.

I have received regular dispatches from Erich, of which the one below is the most recent. I present it herewith, not to frighten you but to stir you to act as you might deem necessary to protect yourself and those closest to you. The subject header on Erich’s message was:

"My thoughts on SARS are getting a bit crowded, so there's some things to say. Something is very wrong in all of this. I'm just gonna lay out some facts. Prior to 1997 (aka the "technology boom") it was impossible according to all scientific doctrine for an H5 to enter a human host, any strain thereof, any virulence. That has all been proven wrong. Prior to April last year, it was impossible according to all scientific doctrine for a highly pathogenic H5 to enter any host and not utterly decimate it. That changed when H5 befriended the migratory bird population in its most highly pathogenic form. This virus is now everywhere in Southern Asia. Endemic in the poultry across Indonesia. Secreted in poultry droppings in poorly vaccinated chickens all across China. Every day there are new animal and human infections. A smoldering inferno of mammalian contagion.

"Missiles are being launched from North Korea. Is this a diversion from a lab in South China making weapons grade virus gone horribly awry?! Consider this. The CDC and WHO are a broken record when it comes to H5’s spread, chanting the mantra: the victim had contact with an infected bird. There is now mounting evidence that no such contact can be established! Worse, maybe there never was a poultry connection going back to 2003 – years, now. Speculation is moving into the field of insect spread and contaminated drinking ladles. This is shaping up to be a grand lie on a grand scale masking a human spreader incubant. Truly horrifying!

"Really scary stuff. To continue: No sequences of H5 are being released at all, to GenBank or any other public domain. There is a letter from a Dem and a Rep circulating to pressure Leavitt to release all strains within the Department of Health and Human Services. It is a publicly funded entity after all.

"I learned today where the sequences reside. The CDC is front-running the collection of said sequences and they are being deposited in a data base at Los Alamos National Laboratory, privy only to a subset of flu laboratories known as the Gang of Fifteen. With what I have learned recently of SARS and the highly pathogenic coronavirus behind it, I am astounded to say the least. It seems undeniable that something very big and very bad is happening. The only reason for these sequences being held in trust, unlike any and all others to date -- ever, is that the implications, if exposed, would plunge the planet into chaos. Dr. Lee's untimely death is an indictment. Also, in the magazine Nature there is an article claiming that these viruses swap genetic material far more easily than what the establishment would have us believe. No kidding! I said that long ago, but now I fear that this is at best a case of Mother Nature's wrath and at worst, an accidental or planned release.

"SARS brought it all to light for me. The same names I've been investigating in Southern China on H5N1 -- the most powerful virus known to man, now killing 80% over in Indonesia -- is right along side SARS. The SARS virus, coronavirus named SARS-CoV, is a lethal human killer. What are the odds that the two most dangerous viruses known to man, which kill exactly the same way (airborne, deep-lung necrosis) having come from exactly the same geography? No corona like SARS has ever been observed in the wild.

"There's more. SARS was a cover up. The Chinese reported 22 infections when now there is documentation of thousands (one reason why I never paid close attention!). Indeed, SARS hit 29 countries, infected more than eight thousand and killed ten percent, an unusually high case/fatality ratio. The planet dodged a bullet and containment came in four breath-holding months -- and not before the phenomenon of the "superspreader" (airborne, human-host carriers) took the virus to four continents in two days. Two days. SARS-CoV on March 9, 2003, was labeled a "novel pathogen," distinct from all known human pathogens. How did it come to be?

"Something is very wrong in Guangdong Province. It's spreading all over and the government is stomping on the story and all reliable statistical reference. I believe we are marching down a path to destruction. SARS infected 29 countries. It was so deadly and spread so fast, the Chinese built a full service hospital in eight days, using 7,000 workers. But it clustered in the medical workers, and all doctors and nurses refused to go into work. H5 is now in 54 countries, 16 in the past three months, and spreads across state borders within these countries by the day. SARS infected the mammal population, masked-palm civets, raccoon-dogs, Chinese ferret badgers, on and on, same as H5 is doing right now, using the same lung receptor, binding technology.

"Listen to me. Any day now the markets are gonna tank. There are big players who must be seeing what I am. Indeed, I am astounded by the brain-wringing going on right now to preserve paper fortunes behind Wall Street's closed door. I'm coming across article after article, prescription after prescription, no one can pull out because the markets are so precarious already. Our new Treasury Secretary in his own words: "My job is to enforce the law." He is cop. Myopic. Machiavellian. Extremely dangerous. A big club who got his position with Wall Street dirt and Main Street corruption before anyone even voted.

"There's more to this story. But something is very wrong in South China. And we're all gonna pay the price if this one jumps, if it hasn't already, because a superspreader of H5N1 would literally kill 75% of the population, if not more than that, and in a very short time. When you go symptomatic, you have less than ten days to live. Period. And you're telling me this came from Nature? Incredible. Erich."

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Here is what one of my grads, Hunter Reynolds, had to say recently about the chat room:

Dates are not yet firm for a fourth seminar to be held in Sydney, Australia, but it looks like it will take place either in November 2006 or February 2007. The class is filling up, so do let me know soon if you’d like to attend.

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