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800-Point Plunge Ahead for DJIA?

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

-- Posted Wednesday, 14 March 2007 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source:

Rick’s Picks

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

Whoooosh! What will Wednesday bring?  Lower prices, most likely, if Microsoft is any kind of bellwether. We were waiting for the stock to dive yesterday to a Hidden Pivot support at 26.84 that had been flagged in the intraday notes section of Rick’s Picks. For a while, as someone in the chat room observed, Microsoft looked like the turd that wouldn’t flush. It finally did, though, and by day’s end the company’s shares had traded as low as 26.71. The fact that MSFT overshot its downside target by 13 cents may not sound significant, but in Hidden Pivot terms it was, for two reasons. In the first place, while the target was sufficiently compelling to have caused us to expect a bounce, however feeble, from 26.84, there was none. Second, with its lock-hold on the world’s PC software market, and a war chest overflowing with tens of billions of surplus dollars, MSFT is most often a stock that must be dragged kicking and screaming to bring it down each tiny step of the way.

Granted, it’s easy to hate the company and all of the mediocre products it sells, especially the many it has copied so poorly from competitors. But that doesn’t necessarily make MSFT a great short, or even a good one. We train our crosshairs on Microsoft, not because we are bear hunters intent on squeezing off a shot, but to adjust our sights. This we did, and after ruminating on the price action at 26.84, we inferred that the stock market as a whole may have troubles that go far deeper than yesterday’s headline plunge.

So what may lie immediately ahead? When stocks begin to trade this morning, it would appear that Microsoft can only go down, having exhausted the last Hidden Pivot support available on its daily chart. If so, it will have just two chances to pull out of the dive: 1) near 26.48, where a supportive low was made back in September; and 2) near 25.39, where a visually obvious shelf of support formed last September.  However, if the higher number is breached even slightly and thus sends MSFT down to the second, that would represent a total decline of about 5 percent.  If, simultaneously, the Dow should fall about 30% more steeply, as it did yesterday, that would imply a decline of slightly more than 800 points.

Should we perhaps be hoping that the Plunge Protection Team steps in to brake Microsoft’s fall at 26.48, before the ugliness gains momentum?  If not, the unmitigated hubris of one guru’s absurd prediction may be the only thing left to save the day. 


Want to Forecast Like a Pro?

Plans for the first online Hidden Pivot seminar are nearly complete. The two-day event will be held via Webex in late March or early April, most probably on successive weekend mornings. There will also be at least one lengthy Q&A session to follow, just as there has been on Sunday afternoons to conclude the on-site course.

This will be an excellent opportunity for those of you who were unable to attend the classes I gave last year in New York, Sydney, Vancouver, San Francisco and Denver. If you’ve visited the chat room and marveled at the forecasting skill of seminar grads, this seminar is designed to quickly bring you up to their level. While I cannot guarantee that the course will turn you into a fabulously rich trader,  I can promise that with a little diligence and practice, your ability to precisely predict price reversals in stocks, indexes, options and commodities will be at least as good as anyone whose forecasts you have ever paid for.

I will be able to offer this course for under  $1,000, since many of the expenses that I've incurred in holding a “live” seminar – including hotel and travel costs, and the rental of a conference facility -- will not be a factor. If you are seriously interested in attending, click here to get on the mailing list.


Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2006, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. 

-- Posted Wednesday, 14 March 2007 | Digg This Article | Source:


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