-- Posted Friday, 4 May 2007 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Friday, May 4, 2007
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
For die-hard bears like ourselves, one of the most useful features of the Hidden Pivot system is that it is incapable of predicting when the Mother of All Tops is going to occur. That an important top is likely or perhaps even very likely to form is about as much as we can foresee, and even then, as you all know, there are no guarantees. Recall that, since 2004, and until recently, we’d been using a 13045 target for the Dow Industrial Average. The fact that this ostensibly major Hidden Pivot resistance was brushed aside in mere hours caused us no remorse, however, since it kept us – the most bearish bears this side of Nostradamus – properly bullish during a time when we could not have come up with a single good reason for owning stocks.
Now we find ourselves looking with perhaps insufficient detachment at yet another DJIA target, 13264, a Hidden Pivot that I billboarded after the one at 13045 came a cropper a week ago. Identifying the higher target produced an epiphany of sorts, since the new, improved number did not violate any important technical rules, and because it offered us yet one more opportunity for redemption. That said, or rather confessed, we must acknowledge a less-than-healthy awareness of the Indoos’ record high the other day at 13256, a scant eight points below our target. But rather than throw a spotlight on it and greet it with a drum roll, we would deign only to suggest that if you are “short the market” at these levels, that you prepare to flee your position as one would a lit fuse, should the cash index creep even slightly above 13264 in the days ahead.
The Watched-Pot Effect
When the DJIA was first stealing up on 13045, I mentioned in the newsletter that I planned to be away from my desk around the time the target was likely to be reached. “A watched pot never boils” was the euphemistic excuse I gave for averting my eyes. But just as we have all sensed the ineffable truth of that hoary adage in one way or another, so must investors sense, after all these years, that merely having some guru’s Mother-of-All-Tops predictions register on one’s brain is sufficient to invalidate the prediction, no matter how obscure the guru.
Call it the Martin Armstrong Effect, since he was the last guru to transfix market-watchers with a spotlight-and-drum-roll forecast of a Very Important Top. The fact that the Dow was banging out record new highs just six weeks after Armstrong’s end-of-the-world prediction seemed, if only briefly, to have come true should chasten all those who would predict anything more than that “the end is near.” Which surely it must be?
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A Guru’s Best Tricks Revealed
“While perusing some of your posts chronologically from months back, I'm truly struck by the remarkable prescience of many of your fearless calls. The results are uncannily accurate. Thanks again for this opportunity to profit from your usually directionally correct analyses. The subscription is worth every penny - and then some.”
-- Colin L. MacVeagh, a subscriber
Aloha Rick. I just want to thank you personally for all of your posts in Comex Gold and Silver. I have traded gold/silver futures for a decade and there is NO ONE who has identified prices as accurately as you do. FACT: Your New Year's Eve call of a high at 643.10 call was dead-on (even if floor traders ran it up a few days later to flush the momentum traders.) But your subsequent forecast of a pullback low at 603.00 was mind boggling! I Sold my longs at 643.10 and covered my shorts at 603.00 -- the exact bottom.
-- Mark Johnson, Hawaiian subscriber
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Want to learn exactly how I do it? Then click here for details concerning next month’s online Hidden Pivot Seminar on May 19-20 (Saturday/Sunday morning). Sign up now while there are still a few seats left. The goal of this course is nothing less than to teach traders and investors of all levels of experience how to forecast stocks and commodities at least as accurately and confidently as those who do it successfully for a living.
With just a cursory understanding of the material taught in the course, and a little bit of follow-up, you will never again have to ask an “expert” what he thinks about a particular stock or “the market.” That’s because you will be better equipped yourself to answer the question simply by looking at a few charts.
The course is not about technical analysis in the conventional sense, with its tired and overly scrutinized trendlines, its familiar oscillators, channels, volume indicators, and all the rest, Rather, it is a way of looking at charts with a fresh eye – to see charts as “art,” with emphasis on visual elements of harmony, symmetry, and, indeed, beauty. My annotated charts do not look even remotely like those of other technicians, and that is why the “buy” and “sell” signals that come from them rarely coincide with those favored and used by the herd.
Don’t Rely on ‘Experts’
The online class will be a particularly good opportunity for those who were unable to attend my classes last year in New York, Sydney, Vancouver, San Francisco and Denver. If you’ve visited the Rick’s Picks chat room and marveled at the forecasting skill of seminar grads, this course is designed to quickly bring you up to their level. While I cannot guarantee that the course will turn you into a fabulously rich trader, I can promise, as implied above, that with a little diligence and practice, your ability to precisely predict price reversals in stocks, indexes, options and commodities will be at least as good as anyone whose forecasts you have ever paid for.
Although the on-site course was offered for as much as $2,000, I am offering it online for $960, since many of the expenses incurred in holding “live” seminars – including hotel and travel costs, and the rental of conference facilities -- are not a factor. If you are seriously interested in attending, click here for more information, or go directly to the registration page by clicking here, then clicking the “UPCOMING” tab.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2006, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Friday, 4 May 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
