-- Posted Friday, 8 June 2007 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Friday, June 8, 2007
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Is the bull market over? Ask us again in six months, since anyone who would even deign to answer that question is blowing smoke. Even so, it is growing increasingly difficult to ignore the evidence that the bull has started to crack. Yesterday, for instance, the S&Ps recorded their biggest drop in nearly three months. That in itself is no catastrophe. But from a Hidden Pivot perspective the decline was ominous for two reasons. For one, it surpassed two prior lows on the hourly chart and very nearly exceeded a third, creating a quite powerful bearish impulse leg in the process.
While this may not spell the end of the world, it does strongly hint that the intermediate-term trend has turned bearish and could endure at least through the summer. For two, the S&P futures fell without having achieved a 1547.50 target that we had all but chiseled in stone. The actual high, recorded three days ago, was 1543.00.
Patience Fails
Now, a 4.50-point shortfall may not sound like much. But it marks the first time since February that a rally cycle in the S&Ps failed to achieve a target on the hourly chart. Previously, such thrusts were hitting Hidden Pivots to the exact tick and with such reliability as to constitute a source of easy money for the patient trader. This time, however, patience was left choking on dust when the futures failed, by fully 18 ticks, to get where they were going. Something has changed.
We had an inkling of yesterday’s kamikaze dive on Wednesday, when a decline in the Mini-Dow exceeded a prior low by five points (see chart, above). At the time, I noted that, as close together as the two lows were, it would be a mistake to see them as constituting a double bottom. Rather, from a Hidden Pivot perspective, the five-point overshoot turned the entire downthrust into a robustly bearish impulse leg. Now, the same sign has become manifest on the S&P chart, albeit more forcefully
Bull-Killers
We’d like to think that the stock market is finally starting to discount certain economic realities that should have sent it tumbling long ago. A current list of bull-killers includes a real estate bust that is growing more ominous each day; rising interest rates; a sharply weakening retail sector; and perceptions that investors’ ardor for private equity deals has reached unhealthy, if not to say fatal, levels.
Of course, it is in the nature of bull markets to shrug off any and all concerns that would seem to lack the ability to end civilization. But if the 25-year-old bull market is indeed ending, it will not be because it has succumbed to reality, but because the cyclical swings in mass psychology that cause stocks to rise and fall, and which color our perceptions of reality, are moving us from the blinding sun, finally, into the shadows.
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Seminar Opportunity
Only a few Australians have signed up so far for the June 30-31 online Hidden Pivot Seminar, so if small class-size appeals to you, this is the session you’ll want to attend. The seminar will likely be the last I will offer at a time of day that is convenient to students from Australia and New Zealand, but the show will go on regardless of how many students enroll.
If you have been waiting for just such an opportunity, please click here (then click the “Upcoming” tab) to reserve a place in the classroom, or here for detailed information about the course itself. Incidentally, these hours will work for anyone in the U.S. who would prefer to take the course in the evening. The hours, in Eastern U.S. time, are from 6:30 p.m. to 9:30 Friday and Saturday, June 29-30. This translates to 8:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. Sydney time, Saturday/Sunday; or 6:30 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. Hong Kong time.
Free to All Graduates
Incidentally, all seminar grads will soon have free access at all hours of the day to a recorded version of the seminar, as well as to the Q&A forums held in conjunction with each class. In addition, I am in the process of creating an advanced tutorial built around some especially difficult charts. It will also be free to seminar grads and accessible round-the-clock.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Friday, 8 June 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
