-- Posted Sunday, 17 June 2007 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Precise forecasting does not necessarily make for successful trading, as the two examples, both from Friday’s Rick’s Picks, make clear. In the first instance, we used price action in the Bond futures Thursday night to project a tradable low at 105^19. Here’s the way the recommendation appeared in the newsletter: “Here's a night owl special that seeks to leverage a delicate looking Hidden Pivot support at 105^19 that looks like it could get hit overnight. Bid there for a single contract, stop 105^17, good till 8 am ET. You'll be on your own thereafter, but a trailing stop is advised if the trade goes 8-9 ticks into the black.”
As the chart above shows, the bonds made an important low just two ticks beneath our target, then trampolined higher. Unfortunately, we’d allowed only a 2-point stop-loss, so we got shaken out of the trade on the low tick of the day.
Exactly 119 Points
The second recommendation was based on a prediction sent out early Thursday evening that the Dow would rally exactly 119 points on Friday. Here’s the actual Tout as it appeared in the newsletter: “A very unintuitive ABC pattern suggests the futures will run up to exactly 13807 today if the bulls take charge. You can short there with a four-tick stop, but I wouldn't advise doing so in the final hour, nor would I carry the position over the weekend. Switch to a 10-point trailing stop on a pullback that touches 13785, and use 13767 as a minimum objective.”
Now, look at what happened. In the chart below we see that the futures rallied exactly 120 points, to 13808, allowing us to get short a single tick below a promising high. A ten-point drop followed, but then a last-gasp rally took the September contract up to 13813, six ticks above our stop, where it made its intraday high before dropping back 62 points.
In each case the forecast was quite accurate but the stop-loss too tight. Could you have done better than I with these numbers? I expect so. Like many of my subscribers, however, I am constantly learning, and adjusting my trading style as the markets themselves change. Although I have come to expect the Hidden Pivot system to yield targets that are extremely accurate and reliable, days like Friday suggest that no system can achieve perfection all the time.
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Online Seminar: Last Call!
Only a few students have signed up so far for the June 30-31 online Hidden Pivot Seminar, so if small class-size appeals to you, this is the session you’ll want to attend. The seminar will likely be the last I will offer at a time of day that is convenient to students from Australia and New Zealand, but the show will go on regardless of how many students enroll.
If you have been waiting for just such an opportunity, please click here (then click the “Upcoming” tab) to reserve a place in the classroom, or here for detailed information about the course itself. Incidentally, these hours will work for anyone in the U.S. who would prefer to take the course in the evening. The hours, in Eastern U.S. time, are from 6:30 p.m. to 9:30 Friday and Saturday, June 29-30. This translates to 8:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. Sydney time, Saturday/Sunday; or 6:30 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. Hong Kong time.
Free to All Graduates
Incidentally, all seminar grads will soon have free access at all hours of the day to a recorded version of the seminar, as well as to the Q&A forums held in conjunction with each class. In addition, I am in the process of creating an advanced tutorial built around some especially difficult charts. It will also be free to seminar grads and accessible round-the-clock.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Sunday, 17 June 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
