-- Posted Wednesday, 20 June 2007 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
For lurkers who are curious about what goes on inside Rick’s Picks, I’ve reprinted yesterday’s actual Touts below, along with all of the intraday updates and charts. Surely you didn’t think the service was all about Brainy Babes of Hollywood and other cheesecake we’ve featured here from time to time – all gratuitously and at no extra charge. I would have included below a snippet from the chat room, but the bird flu discussion we had near the end of the day might trigger a panic on Wall Street. Anyway, below is a sample of what lay behind the speakeasy door on what turned out to have been a fairly routine session. The forecasts were disseminated on Monday night for action on Tuesday:
Updates for Tuesday
Mini S&P (1544.50)
06/18/2007 20:12:38
Stocks began the week more timidly than we'd expected, but when selling failed to abate after the first 15 minutes, we grew sufficiently cautious to stay out of serious trouble. Personally, I'll be bottom-fishing at 1540.25 overnight Monday with a two-tick stop-loss, but I wouldn't recommend trying it at home. The compulsion to be buying at these rarefied levels has caused in me a paradoxical sense of foreboding -- one that asks whether the mere fact of my eagerness to "buy the dip" is a warning that this dip will be a trap. ______ UPDATE: Surprise, surprise. The futures bottomed at 1540.50, a single tick from my bid, then began a rally cycle that so far has gone on for about 30 minutes and four points. However, if the ES should come back down to the exact target, I won't be a buyer, since my "hidden" support is no longer hidden from all the bozos, having become a visually obvious turning point.
August Gold (660.20)
06/18/2007 20:26:21
As long as the futures continue to "freshen" the uptrend each day by surpassing a prior peak or two on the intraday charts, the forecast will remain felicitous. At the moment, it calls for a rally to at least 661.70, a target whose provenance can be seen in the accompanying chart (above). Hidden Pivoteers should note that I have reached all the way down to the one-minute bars to create for myself a one-off low capable of providing a hula-ish number for a target. It will be reached, I am pretty sure, but we should expect it to be exceeded by at least 3-4 ticks on the first incursion if the futures are indeed bound even higher over the near term.
July Silver (13.250)
06/18/2007 20:40:43
Preaching self-reliance, I'll leave you silver bugs with a rod rather than a fish this time, since there hasn't been sufficient demand for me to track this vehicle as closely as I do Gold. As in today's tout for August Gold, I've had to drill down to the one-minute bars to find a pattern that worked (see chart above). My hunch is that it did so because of its subtlety. Based on our Hidden Pivot rules, you can see an impulse leg that surpassed the required two prior lows. What I like most about this pattern, though, is the sibling resemblance of the K-A segment to B-C. More and more, this is becoming a key criterion for finding tradable patterns that are most likely to produce gains with the least relative risk. Pair this factor with single-bar highs and lows in real time and you'll be amazed at how often it produces trading winners.
Diamonds Trust (135.99)
06/18/2007 21:10:09
In Monday evening trading the Diamonds were within 0.01 point of the Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart above. It comes from a one-off 'A", but there is yet one more high that we can use for an 'A' to produce an alternative 'D' target at 135.67. You can bottom-fish there with a three-tick (!) stop-loss, using July near-the-moneys in whatever way suits your style. Paying about 2.60 for a July 135 call would be about right, but you should verify that against whatever bid is actually reflected if and when the Diamonds get within 2-3 cents of the target. _______ UPDATE: My forecast missed the exact low by 0.05 -- pretty good in the hubris-saturated world of guru-dom, but not good enough for me. If you had the good sense to use a slightly wider stop than the insanely tight one I'd advised, take some profits here and let them run using a judicious trailing stop.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Wednesday, 20 June 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
