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-- Posted Tuesday, 10 July 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

Our small, short position in Apple has produced a paper gain of more than $1,000 since Friday, when we advised the trade. We used a Hidden Pivot resistance at 133.43 that appears to have been well worth the wait, since it came within 35 cents of nailing the so-far all-time high in the stock, 133.78. The pivot also anticipated a doozy of a selloff – a pullback of nearly $5, or about three-and-a-half percent, from the peak.

While it’s still too early to tell whether Apple’s bull-market top is in – and our hunch is strongly otherwise – the goal of shorting a much-hyped high-flier without getting hurt has been achieved with little stress or anxiety. Like the magician who catches a speeding bullet between his teeth, our feat was ultimately just a cheap parlor trick – i.e., finding a Hidden Pivot we could trust to arrest Apple’s parabolic ascent. Now, to protect our gains, we’ve deployed a stop-loss at 131.92 for the hundred shares that remain in our position.  Why there? Simply because a print at that price would create on the lesser charts the kind of bullish impulse leg that would telegraph new record highs to come.

Newmont Demands Patience

We’ve been less successful lately in Newmont Mining, which has risen only six cents since we bought the stock on Friday. Our bullish play initially got a boost from a simultaneous breakout in Comex Gold. The breakout was not unanticipated, as you could infer from the following analysis. It went out to Rick’s Picks subscribers  on Sunday night:

“Any rally that surpasses the tiny look-to-the-left peak at 662.00 shown in the accompanying chart would make August Gold start to look interesting, since that would create a subtly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. It would also imply more strength to a minimum 665.20. That wouldn't be quite enough to take out the two key highs shown, but it would leave the futures in good shape to attempt it.” 

In the event, the August futures traded as high yesterday as 666.00, at which point they were up more than $11. They also slightly exceeded the mentioned “two key highs” implying that still-higher prices are likely. We can offer no precise target at the moment, but it seems clear that there is significant, further upside potential. However, we’ve provided an exact target for the XAU Gold & Silver Index that should help guide you for purposes of profit-taking and position-adjusting in precious metal shares. If the XAU reaches its target, our position in Newmont is all but certain to be a winner.

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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 

-- Posted Tuesday, 10 July 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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