-- Posted Thursday, 12 July 2007 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Thursday, July 12, 2007
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Speaking as a gold bug with a gimlet eye, it may be a good time to ratchet down our expectations, seeing the glass as half-empty rather than half-full. Let’s start with the XAU chart below, which I recently trotted out in support of a 5.5% rally forecast. When you look at the chart, do you see a bullish impulse leg that has rocketed past no fewer than four prior “external” peaks? Hard to miss it, for sure. It’s what I saw a few days ago when I predicted even bigger and better things ahead. But there is another Hidden Pivot interpretation of this chart – one that should smack the eye of the Gloomy Gus who dwells in the heart of each and every gold bug.
What Gloomy Gus would notice first is not the initially promising trajectory of the rally begun a few weeks ago, but rather the subtle failure of that rally more recently to surpass the April 20 high, 148.50. In Hidden Pivot terms, this tiny “look-to-the-left” peak looms large in any technical discussion of gold’s prospects over the near term. The rally was not lacking in ebullience, for sure. What it manifestly lacked, however, was the guts to take on just one more “easy” peak before pausing for breath.
This has subtle importance for Hidden Pivot seminar grads, who may be quicker than I to recognize the problem because it receives greater emphasis in class than I sometimes bring to my own analysis. We dwell on XAU’s “look-to-the-left” failure in retrospect, having bailed out of a long position in Newmont Wednesday morning. We did so in haste, posting the following to the Rick’s Picks Touts section as the Denver-based mining giant was beginning to do what it does best – i.e., disappoint shareholders: “Never again! It was a mistake to have bought a stock --especially a gold stock -- on an alleged breakout rather than at a pullback to a Hidden Pivot low. Enough of this masochism! Sell the 200 shares now. My downside target for this dog was 40.60, but that has already been exceeded this morning -- an unhealthy sign.”
We continued in this vein in the chat room: “The proper time to have sold NEM was yesterday when it first ticked down to 41.39, creating a bearish impulse leg on the lesser charts.” It seems we have to re-learn this lesson every six months or so, even as we continue to remind you, dear subscribers, that a primary goal of Rick’s Picks is to NOT become just another cheerleader for precious metal stocks. Which is to say, rallies in gold and silver should have to earn our trust and confidence one bullish impulse leg at a time. And if they do not, we must strive – always -- to tell it like it is.
The Hidden Pivot system is not a hit-or-miss method of analysis. Indeed, it is well nigh impossible for anyone who uses the system even haphazardly to profess cluelessness for long. As we hope we have demonstrated persuasively here, and not just once or twice, the system has the ability to keep us in synch with the trend at all times, and with precious few errors. So if in the months ahead Hidden Pivots have little encouragement to offer those with an emotional stake in gold and silver, please don’t shoot the messenger. Meanwhile, if you’re looking for an exquisitely sensitive tripwire to warn when bullion is about to awaken from its slumber, you couldn’t find a better one than in the Rick’s Picks chat room. At any given time of the day, you will find some of the nation’s most ardent and learned practitioners of the Hidden Pivot Method in there daily, endeavouring to find bullish meaning in gold’s every uptick.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2007, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Thursday, 12 July 2007 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
