-- Posted Thursday, 10 January 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Thursday, January 10, 2008
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
When we warned of an imminent 320-point fall in the Dow Sunday night, we admonished subscribers not to share a related S&P target with their friends, lest the publicity “queer” the prediction. We needn’t have worried. Yesterday the S&P futures completed their multi-day plunge, falling to within a quarter of a point of our 1385.25 target; then they trampolined 30 points higher, closing just off the intraday peak.
We had reiterated our faith in the target the night before with the following trade recommendation: “The 1385.25 target given here earlier remains not only valid, but compelling as a place to trade speculatively for a strong bounce. Use a 1383.75 stop-loss initially, switching to a 2.00-point trailing stop if 1394.00 is hit on the rebound. Reasonable upside objective: 1401.50.” The 1.25-point stop-loss proved more than sufficient for getting long at the low of the selloff, and anyone following our advice exactly would definitely have been filled on his or her bid, since the actual low occurred a single tick beneath it.
In the meantime, Comex Gold was moving with equally precise deference to some key numbers we’d flagged. (See chart above.) The bad news is that the February contract played footsies briefly with The Beast, plunging to within a single tick of a threshold where trouble was bound to begin. Here’s what we wrote in Tuesday’s “Tout” for Comex Gold:
“Yes, I know, I've been promising you at least 902.10 over the near term. But there is no getting around a lesser impediment at 896.90 that will have to be reckoned with first. Hidden Pivot aficionados will recognize its authority in the chart below: single-bar price points, sinuous symmetry and an all-but-indomitable trajectory. Since the futures topped yesterday at 894.40, we could infer that an additional $2.50 of upside is due us. This would have no practical implications for trading, since anyone riding a long position to 896.90 would have been bound to an 80-cent trailing stop from the so-far peak. (See "Using Dynamic Trailing Stops" by selecting 'edu' in the "All Picks By Stock" field near the top of this page.)
However, we must still respect the pullback that has occurred so far, since it would have distinctly negative implications if it were to continue and the futures were to create a bearish impulse leg of hourly-bar degree without having first achieved the 896.40 target. The bearish signal would come on an 873.70 print today, and although I doubt we'll see it, we should remain open to the possibility nonetheless. On the other hand, and to look on the bright side, because the 896.40 target is absolutely unmistakable, any rally that gets past it easily would be signaling, not merely the final, expected fillip to 902.10 to complete the minor cycle, but mounting strength beyond that number, presumably with a historical push to $1,000 in prospect.”
When the dust settled, the futures had fallen to a low at 873.80, failing to go that one last tick that would have turned us negative. Gold is still not out of the woods, so check out our Comex tout for Thursday if you want to know how nervous you should be.
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Here’s a $50 Coupon…
A flurry of late registrations brought last weekend’s Hidden Pivot seminar to near-capacity, so I have scheduled another class in February for those who missed it. Click here for a $50 discount and instructions for registering. The class will be held on the weekend of February 9-10, from 9:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Mountain Time. If you want to learn how to forecast stocks and commodities as confidently and precisely as top pros, this is an opportunity you should not pass up.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Thursday, 10 January 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
