-- Posted Friday, 1 February 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Friday, February 1, 2008
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Despite psychotically wild price swings that are becoming almost routine, the stock market continues to act docilely and more or less predictably when approaching our Hidden Pivot price-reversal points. Yesterday, for instance, in the early minutes of the session, we caught the exact low of a sensational 450-point reversal in the Dow Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) with this trading recommendation sent out the night before: “After-hours selling remains steady, with DaBoyz seemingly hell-bent on shaking loose more stock at fire-sale prices. As of 8:30 Wednesday night there was a clear downside target at 122.44, exactly 0.27 points beneath the so-far low. I expect a tradable turn from that price, a Hidden Pivot…”
Stocks flounced around as dawn approached, but on Thursday morning, less than ten minutes after the opening bell, the Diamonds trampolined off 122.41 -- 0.03 points beneath our target and 0.05 points above the overnight low-- and never looked back (see chart above). The low looks to have been an important one, too, given that the Dow finished up 207 points on the day after easing 50 points in the final minutes.
Although we had been looking for lower prices to start the day, we were bullish on the big picture and saw the previous day’s wicked selloff as nothing more than a shakedown. Here’s the analysis of the Dow Industrials that went out Wednesday night along with the DIA trade recommendation quoted above: “The selloff that ended yesterday afternoon's comical, Fed-induced tug-of-war was unusually punitive, but I am nonetheless going to stick with the very bullish, 12952 rally target given here earlier. The pattern pointing to that number looks no less compelling despite the final-hour collapse, and, as you can see, the low did not surpass two prior lows even on the 15-minute chart.”
Keep an eye on that Dow target, because if it works as precisely as yesterday’s, it could mark the end of the short-squeeze that has defied all logic and reality since early last week.
Comex Gold has been almost as cooperative, bottoming on Wednesday just 0.80 cents from the 920.30 Hidden Pivot target we’d sent out the night before (see chart). That wasn’t quite close enough to get us officially long for the $20 rally that followed, but at least one Rick’s Picks subscriber, Phil D., wrote to say he’d caught a nice ride: "[Your target was] close enough to get my bid at 921.30 filled for three contracts two ticks off the low. I was able to set it up before going to work. Just what I was looking for! Still wondering if it will hold up. I'm taking your 970-something target seriously as this could be a blow-off leg to the current move. Any other advice on protecting or profiting from this position is appreciated. I'm a long-term bull but still intermediate term skeptical so I'm not buying without stops as I did up to May of 2006."
Of course, past performance provides no assurance that future forecasts will be equally accurate, let alone useful. But for now, it’s comforting to see that even a wild and crazy market such as this one can be tamed, analytically speaking, by using the right technical tools.
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March Seminar
The Hidden Pivot seminar scheduled for February is full, so I’ve added an additional session on March 8-9. If you’d like to attend, click here for further details and instructions on how to register. The class will be held on Saturday/Sunday from 9:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Mountain Time. If you want to learn how to forecast stocks and commodities as confidently and precisely as top pros, this is an opportunity you should not pass up.
Class for Aussies
I will also be offering a class in February that is tailored to the scheduling needs of students from Australia, New Zealand and Singapore.. If you live in Sydney, this seminar will take place on February 21-22 (Thursday and Friday), from 3:30 p.m. to 7 p.m. These hours will also work for early risers in Western Europe. For further details, click here. You can also register directly by clicking here, then on the “Upcoming” tab.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Friday, 1 February 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
