-- Posted Thursday, 7 February 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Thursday, February 7, 2008
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
Buyers yielded ground stubbornly for the second straight day, digging themselves a deepening trap from which extrication will become more difficult as the week draws to a close. The danger became manifest on Wednesday’s opening bar, which slightly exceeded a dramatic and important low made a week ago. From a Hidden Pivot perspective the overshoot was sufficient to create a bearish, 460-point impulse leg (see chart below) that has yet to play out and which has the potential to drive the Dow Industrials well below 12000 this morning.
The stock market’s most recent troubles began last Wednesday, when investors evidently had second thoughts about the Fed’s latest desperate giveaway. They initially drove stocks sharply higher on news of the 50-basis-point easing, but the apex of their high spirits proved to be pure Wile E. Coyote, and down she went. The selling quickly became just as overdone, setting the stage for a 500-point short-squeeze the following day. The broad averages have been detumescing ever since, and even though the elections have distracted from all of the usual bad news, no bullish story has crossed the tape with the wattage to kick off another short-squeeze.
WSJ ‘Howler’
We’ve lost our capacity to imagine what that story might be, unless one of the leading candidates has a better plan than Helicopter Ben for preventing the recession that began at least several months ago. Let’s hope at any rate that none of them is reading the Wall Street Journal for inspiration, since he or she might have come across this recent howler and mistaken it for serious thought: “Many on Wall Street believe a slowing economy will help rein in prices and that the Fed can focus on reviving growth by lowering interest rates.”
In fact, the Fed has already pumped enough liquidity into the pipeline to inflate a blimp made out of burlap. However, we seriously doubt that it will have any impact on the rapidly deflating housing market, although it’s likely that the cost of just about everything else, most particularly imports, will be moving higher for the foreseeable future. The wrong kind of inflation, for sure – but not so wrong that a few Krugerrands bought for safe deposit won’t more than cover the incremental difference in your grocery bill for the next year.
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Forecast Like a Pro
The Hidden Pivot seminar scheduled for February is full, so I’ve added an additional session on March 8-9. If you’d like to attend, click here for further details and instructions on how to register. The class will be held on Saturday/Sunday from 9:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Mountain Time. If you want to learn how to forecast stocks and commodities as confidently and precisely as top pros, this is an opportunity you should not pass up.
Oz-Hours Class
I will also be offering a class in February that is tailored to the scheduling needs of students from Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. If you live in Sydney, this seminar will take place on February 21-22 (Thursday and Friday), from 3:30 p.m. to 7 p.m. These hours will also work for early risers in Western Europe. For further details, click here. You can also register directly by clicking here, then on the “Upcoming” tab.
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Thursday, 7 February 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
