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-- Posted Thursday, 3 April 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Thursday, April 3, 2008

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

Buyers paused yesterday, presumably to sniff the air for any lingering trace of the fear that permeated Wall Street just a week ago.  What a difference a day makes!  Recall that as March drew to a close, the death-watch list had come to include not only Lehman Brothers and some other banking stalwarts, but the indomitable Goldman Sachs. Now, though, as every sentient investor probably knows, Lehman has gotten an infusion of cash, a commendation from the regulators, and fawning support from the Wall Street Journal, which apparently has turned friendly toward bailouts as long as they benefit banks rather than manufacturers. We note as well that Thornburg Mortgage, apparently having avoided bankruptcy, expects to start making loans again any day.  How did the firm achieve its death-defying escape? Our guess is that it simply occurred as a result of our ceasing to believe, if only temporarily, that Thornburg was a dead duck. This might be called the Peter Pan Principle:  “Sprinkle a little fairy dust, think lovely thoughts, an u-u-u-p we go!” But be sure to hold your very loveliest thoughts in reserve, since the housing market is going to need them at full strength.

Concerning Goldman, we can be sure the firm has shaken off all of those nasty rumors because we received an e-mail yesterday from some bucket shop that goes by the name of Market Intelligence Center (MIC) exhorting us to Buy! Buy! Buy! Goldman shares hand-over-fist. “If you are going to make one single trade today, this is it. GS (Goldman Sacks [sic] Period. Experience the Patent-Pending OSR System that selected this trade among thousands of possibilities.”  We note that Goldman finished 25 cents higher on the day, so the opportunity touted by MIC is still there, waiting to be plundered by the lucky likes of you and me.

We wish Goldman well, and we see the firm as a survivor even under the worst of circumstances. But we have lingering doubts that many of its lesser competitors, including Lehman, will make it to the finish line.  Judging from the way the stock market has responded to the Fed’s massive PR campaign to convince the world that all is right with the world, we are among the few doubters left. It’s all well and good to pretend that confidence has been restored to the banking system, and we wouldn’t begrudge investors a week or two of comic relief such as we have seen on Wall Street in recent days. But if all of the hubris and spin control have substantively changed things, we lack the imagination to see how those changes will help beat back the toxic debt deflation that continues to gather strength each day in the real estate and financial sectors.

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14 Days and Counting…

There’s good news if you’ve wanted to take the Hidden Pivot course but have been unable to attend on weekend mornings, when the class has typically been held.  In mid-April, I’ll be conducting the six-hour class over two consecutive evenings – Wednesday and Thursday, April 16-17, from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. MDT.  Click here, and then on the “Upcoming” tab to register; or here if you would like more information as well as a detailed description of the Hidden Pivot Method and a free Hidden Pivot calculator.

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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 

-- Posted Thursday, 3 April 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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