-- Posted Friday, 6 June 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks
Friday, June 6, 2008
“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”
A few more days like yesterday and you can look for me in my hula skirt in Times Square next winter. I’d promised to dance the hula if the Dow failed to plummet exactly 360 points to a Hidden Pivot target, and soon. My bearishness was based on the fact that stocks did not seem to be getting much lift from falling oil prices. However, what happened next stood this logic on its ear. With crude quotes surging to one of their biggest one-day gains in history, stocks rose sharply as well, led by a 214-point gain by the Dow Industrials. At least I had one thing right in yesterday’s commentary when I wrote that “no manifestation of rational human behavior could be farther from observable reality than the stock market.”
How else to explain such exuberant behavior when soaring energy quotes were once again threatening to squash the U.S. economy, bankrupt the airlines and auto manufacturers, and push up the price of nearly everything we consume? For the stock market to seemingly celebrate the increasing likelihood of such prospects was more than merely absurd, it was obscene.
As always, whenever I am mystified by investor behavior, I browsed The Wall Street Journal’s end-of-day wrap-up to see what my poor, underappreciated colleague, Peter McKay, had to say. He explained it as follows: “Stocks recouped most of their recent losses Thursday amid a welcome round of corporate deal making and strong reports on retail sales, which outweighed an eye-popping surge in crude prices.”
So that’s it! I was beginning to think I’d missed some news of a cure for cancer, or a breakthrough in cold fusion technology, or even a conciliatory statement from bin Laden that Islamists had determined to work together with the West to help bring greater harmony and prosperity to the world. But an uptick in retail sales – and most of it recorded at Wal-Mart? That is apparently where shoppers are doing their thing these days, and who am I to judge whether it means the economy is back on track? A child of the Fifties, I grew up thinking prosperity was measured by how many Pontiacs, Oldsmobiles, Buicks and Chevrolets General Motors had sold in the last quarter.
Do we now infer that, as Wal-Mart goes, so goes the nation?
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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Friday, 6 June 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
