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-- Posted Friday, 5 September 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks Friday, September 5, 2008 “Phenomenally accurate forecasts” See if you can spot the factual error in this leader Friday from the Associated Press: “Dejected investors sent stocks plunging Thursday, hurtling the Dow Jones Industrials down more than 340 points after retailers and the government added to a mountain of bad economic news and devastated hopes for a late-year recovery.” Give up? The error is subtle, but if you asked yourself, “A late-year recovery from what?” then go to the head of the class. The way the AP has phrased it, one might get the impression the economy was in a recession. But according to stories sent out just a few short weeks ago by the AP itself, as well as by nearly every other mainstream panderer of economic news in America, not only is the statistical economy not in recession, it has actually been growing at a moderate clip that in the most recent quarter exceeded 3%.
This supposed evidence of resilient growth has been attributed to a resurgence of exports due to the weak dollar and to the seemingly inexhaustible flow of tax rebates to Wal-Mart, McDonald’s and other invincibles of the retail economy. However, as regular readers of Rick’s Picks will already know, we are quite certain these very modest positives have been offset ten times over by such deflationary negatives as a collapsing real estate sector and the still-ongoing, black-hole implosion of commercial banking. A Lost Sense of Smell So which story are we to believe in the wake of yesterday’s selloff? Have investors grown absolutely despairing because they are unable to see even a glimmer of light? Or are they still the same devil-may-care optimists that just a few short weeks ago powered the Dow Industrials to a maniacal, thousand-point gain? We ask these questions rhetorically, if not to say sarcastically, because it is quite clear that neither Wall Street nor the news media could sniff out a recession if it were a piece of rotting meat lodged up their nose. In fact, the stench is worse than rotting meat, even if the statistics would deign to suggest otherwise. We would cite in particular a string of unemployment numbers that has ratcheted steadily higher without even hinting at the alarming swelling of the under-employed: realtors, financiers and the country’s vast cadres of consultants. These are America’s big spenders and high rollers, the upper ranks of the country’s middle class. But you can be certain they will not show up as unemployed until they’ve thrown in the towel on the prospect of earning more than they could collect by going on the dole. By then, we suspect, even Kudlow & Friends will have begun to understand that it is no mere recession (undeclared or not) that is unfolding, but a complete economic breakdown. *** Fall Seminar September 10-11
Would you like to learn how to forecast price swings and trends as accurately as gurus who do it for a living? If you think learning such skills is beyond you, then you haven’t visited the Rick’s Picks chat room lately. More and more graduates of the online, six-hour Hidden Pivot Seminar can be found there each day, comparing notes, trading confidently and forecasting with the skill and accuracy of the professional tape-watcher. But don’t take our word for it. Drop by sometime and ask a seminar graduate yourself. You can get a one-day pass by clicking here. Because seats for the class are limited, if you would like to sign up now, click here, and then on the “Upcoming” tab to register; or here if you would like more information as well as a detailed description of the Hidden Pivot Method and a free Hidden Pivot calculator (our latest model, designed for beginners). *** Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Friday, 5 September 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
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