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Will Trump Fall Like Kerkorian?

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks


-- Posted Friday, 24 October 2008 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Friday, October 24, 2008

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

If Kirk Kerkorian’s financial empire is crumbling, can Donald Trump’s even shakier financial empire be far behind?  They’ve both gotten filthy rich by leveraging themselves to the eyeballs, so it stands to reason that both would be on the ropes with asset values now collapsing across-the-board. Kerkorian’s mounting problems were reported yesterday on the front page of the Wall Street Journal. He recently bailed out of 7.3 million shares of Ford Motor Co, losing a reported $640 million on an original investment of $980 million. To make matters worse, Kerkorian had pledged two-thirds of his 150 million shares in MGM Mirage to secure credit for his stake in Ford. MGM stock, which Rick’s Picks recommended as a short sale in the mid-$80s, has since fallen below $10, reducing the value of Kerkorian’s holdings to less than $2 billion from a peak of around $13 billion.

We don’t know how Trump has so far managed to avoid the bad publicity that has begun to dog Kerkorian and a few other beleaguered member’s of the Billionaire Boy’s Club. Perhaps The Donald has better media connections? In any case, we expect Trump’s inevitable devastation to be worse than Kerkorian’s once the dust has settled. We estimate that Kerkorian is at least three-and-a-half times as smart as Trump, who has made far more money with his world-class mouth than with his presumably average brain.  And while Kerkorian’s holdings are broadly diversified, Trump has put nearly all of his eggs in the real estate basket. We should also note that while Kerkorian has been an extremely successful casino operator for many decades, the Donald, a relative newcomer to the game, actually managed to bankrupt an Atlantic City casino when business in that town was still pretty good.

A World-Class Mouth

Concerning Trump’s real estate holdings, when we last visited Miami Beach we were astounded by the ambitiousness of the veritable city of Trump towers rising a few miles to the south.  Although Trump has a few very large projects still under construction there and elsewhere, including in Chicago, he claims to have no “skin the game.” Earlier this year, with a straight face, Trump told one of the newsweeklies that Trump condos under construction or in the works are principally owned by builders who pay him royalties for the use of his world-class name. Our guess is that if Trump has leveraged even a measly five percent stake in these soon-to-be see-throughs, the exposure is going to take him down. We would also bet that he’ll be out raising millions within two years of filing for bankruptcy, since, with his peerlessly loud mouth, and new suckers being born every minute, the old shell-game will never go out of style.

***

Comex Silver Forecast

 

If you’ve recently signed up for Rick’s Picks free e-mail commentary in order to get our up-to-date forecast for Silver, click here.  The outlook for the December Comex contract, as well as for the Dow Industrials, December Gold and the Dollar Index (DXY) can be found on the page linked above. It is an enlargeable snapshot of the Inside Edition, a paid-subscriber page that is constantly updated with timely analysis and trade recommendations for stocks, options, indexes and commodities.

***

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com


-- Posted Friday, 24 October 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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