-- Posted Thursday, 29 October 2009 | Digg This Article | | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks Thursday October 29, 2009 “Phenomenally accurate forecasts” When we half-jokingly talk about DaBoyz and how they are continually manipulating the markets, we sometimes lose sight of the fact that they really are out there, rigging the game so that they cannot lose. However, even as these Masters of the Universe maintain quasi-criminal control over the short- and intermediate-term swings, they understand as we do that there are larger, uncontrollable forces lurking in the form of black swans such as the collapse of Lehman Brothers. A post in the Rick’s Picks forum from Mario Cavolo brilliantly describes the interplay between the manipulators and those larger, dangerous forces. Here’s Mario with a few thoughts on the subject that hit us like a bolt of lightning:
“Rick, I have been in a state of particularly deep pondering of these issues for the past few days, stimulated by the way, by my carrying around and reading Nassim Taleb’s classic, Fooled By Randomness, when I had a sudden insight. In the same way as I have learned here from you and others as well, we realize that “DaBoyz”, the “PPT” and various other interested groups (the Goldman Sachs trading desk with 40x higher volume) with such ability, even possibly illegal ability, interfered and manipulated the market with enormous cash infusions after the March low, forcing it up beyond reason and fundamentals, such heavy handed manipulations demonstrated by all kinds of evidence in daily trading activity, volume spikes, etc. ‘They’ Have Decided “Well guess what? THEY are at it again, my friends, and why shouldn’t it be the case? In the short and intermediate term time frames, they absolutely can and do manipulate index levels, gold and the dollar if they want, right or wrong? Those same BOYZ have made their latest set of new strategy decisions, of what WILL go up or down in the range they’ve decided within the context of the current overall state of affairs and the intermediate term time frame. The action including strange inexplicables, is sending the message right now; Part I. Yes, gold and stocks have had their nice ride to the topside of the trading range, and there is not much upside left in this intermediate time frame, so it is time to reasonably take profits, let the market breathe/correct/trade sideways. Well they know that’s what most everyone is thinking now: there is very little upside to this run, few are that foolish a risk taker, eh? DaBoyz know it too, and know it’s time to let it breathe/correct for a while. Taleb just taught me about this “asymmetry” in the upside and downside. Part II. of this: Yes, at the same time as stocks/gold popping up, the dollar has had its scary ride down to the lower side of its trading range and now it’s time to take those stock and gold profits and park it safely in dollars. Adjust, but Pray “A dangerous game? Yea yea of course. Do they have a choice? No. They have to do this Rick, to address it, to manage it, to make choices, (while also preserving their own status of course). They are responding and adjusting, responding and adjusting, while praying that some random black swan doesn’t suddenly appear again to disrupt the delicate balance of the sand pile currently in place. The state of affairs here in October is quite different than May. In fact, what would you really do to unwind it, to solve it, to balance it, to save it? “I am surely incapable of properly answering such an enormous question.” As am I, Mario. *** Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not b construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2009, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Thursday, 29 October 2009 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
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