|
-- Posted Monday, 11 January 2010 | Digg This Article | | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rick’s Picks Monday, January 11, 2009 “Phenomenally accurate forecasts” The gap widened last week between those who believe the economy is recovering and others who see only a deepening abyss. A report released on Friday by the Commerce Department appeared to vindicate the pessimists, at least for now: Supposedly, 85,000 more jobs vanished in December. You can be sure this number was bent, stretched and massaged vigorously to put the story in the most favorable possible light. Under the circumstances, if that’s the best the spinmeisters can do, then we can only infer that the outlook must be bleak indeed. But there may be a silver lining: From a political perspective, assuming the payroll picture gets worse before it gets better, there could be some big, and potentially constructive, changes when mid-term Congressional elections are held next fall. With just six or seven more Republicans in the House, and only a few more in the Senate, Obama’s bold attempt to remake America into a paradise for bureaucrats and leftist lawyers will likely grind to a halt. Let’s hope the Republicans are ready to seize the initiative, rather than succumbing to the temptation to gloat over what by then will be the Democrats’ steep rise and fall. 
Nowhere in the story about how 85,000 jobs were lost did we find a despairing note about what this might imply for the supposed economic recovery. To the contrary, the Wall Street Journal remained steadfastly in denial with this seemingly paradoxical lead sentence: “Employers cut another 85,000 jobs last month, dashing hope of a turnaround in employment, even as the U.S. economy grows.” How’s that again? Do they mean for us to infer that the economy can keep growing with no growth in employment? As far as we’re aware, the only place where both the economy and employment are unquestionably booming is in Washington, D.C., where a reported 175,000 new jobs have been created to gear up for Obama’s Sweden-ization of the U.S. The payroll story went on to explain that the economy grew at a 5.4% clip in Q4, according to Macroecomic Advisers, a St. Louis forecasting firm. We wonder why the Journal would go to some St. Louis forecasting firm for its numbers, unless that firm is in on the fix. In any event, with jobs and real income (see chart above) both falling, and anecdotal evidence of a turnaround almost impossible to find, it’s reasonable to ask what kind of growth the Journal and the dubious forecasters it relies on are talking about. We’ll believe the economy has returned to health when we read about it at John Williams web site, Shadow Government Statistics. (Late-breaking note: Consumer credit plunged a record $17.5 billion in November – much steeper than the $5 billion drop that had been expected. The Journal et al. are already trying to spin this startling new development as a “lingering restraint” on the economy. In fact, it is evidence that economy’s collapse is about to steepen at an alarming rate.) *** Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and option trading, and even experts can, and sometimes do, lose their proverbial shirts. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2010, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com
-- Posted Monday, 11 January 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
Previous Articles by Rick Ackerman
|
