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Squeeze Could Hang Bears on Ropes Till 2011

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks


-- Posted Thursday, 2 December 2010 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | | Source: GoldSeek.com

Rick’s Picks

Thursday, December 2, 2010

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts”

 

Say one thing for DaBoyz, they have infinite patience to wait until things turn their way, as things nearly always do. Stocks had been grinding sideways for nearly two months, but yesterday the prop-desk provocateurs instantly transformed the picture to their liking, goosing the broad averages into a powerful short squeeze that will probably keep the market buoyant for the remainder of the year. What was most impressive about this feat is that it leveraged some employment news that wouldn’t have elicited so much as a yawn in the good old days. Supposedly, the private sector added 93,000 non-farm jobs in November, up from 82,000 a month earlier. This is surely better news than we’ve grown accustomed to, but it is not good news per se, especially considering that jobs would have to grow at several times the current rate for nearly a decade to replace the estimated eight million positions lost to the Great Recession. 

Based on anecdotal evidence, it’s hard to tell where the new jobs are coming from.  It surely is not from the professions, which, to hear it first-hand from friends who are lawyers, Realtors and stockbrokers, remain in the doldrums. Nor is it in the trades, although one Master Electrician we know has been working overtime on big commercial jobs in Denver for more than a year. In Boulder, where the economy has remained relatively strong, the biggest area of growth seems to be, no kidding, Mexican restaurants.  In nearly every instance where a moderate to expensive restaurant has closed and a new one taken its place, the replacement has been a tacqueria.  The only exception that springs to mind is a Ted’s Montana Grill that opened just off Boulder’s main pedestrian thoroughfare. The steak house, one of a chain of restaurants owned by Ted Turner, stays crowded by offering very good burgers for $12 and a wine list with some good selections for under $20. Another restaurant, a popular breakfast-and-brunch spot owned by a friend of ours, is always packed with CU students, perhaps because mimosas and bloody marys are $1. On the retail side, there are quite a few large storefronts that are vacant, including a cavernous one that was occupied by Borders books.  But smaller spaces seem to be about 80-90 percent occupied, and street vendors say business is good if not great.

Paradoxical Buyers

Concerning the potentially lingering effects of yesterday’s short squeeze, the rally was powerfully impulsive in that it blew past numerous old peaks on the intraday charts. Our price targets for the Dow and the S&P 500 were bearish at the close on Tuesday, but by the time yesterday’s session ended, most of the targets had been invalidated.  Some bears would have covered short positions early on in the session, but there are always going to be some risk-takers, including a handful of die-hards, who will fight the rally for as long as possible. Paradoxically, it is these traders who will be supplying the buying power as stocks head inexorably higher into year’s end. It will be called the Santa Rally, of course. This pursy metaphor, along with one that may be even worse – i.e., a “Green [$$] Christmas” —  resurfaces every year only because newspapers are no longer paying enough to hire editorial talent. 

***

 

Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and option trading, and even experts can, and sometimes do, lose their proverbial shirts.  Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2010, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 


-- Posted Thursday, 2 December 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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