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OPTIMIST OR PESSIMIST?...Gold is telling a story

By: Mary Anne Aden and Pamela Aden, The Aden Forecast


-- Posted Tuesday, 31 December 2013 | | Disqus

Goldís been frustrating, to say the least. Plus, its characteristics changed in September.

 

WEAK SIGNS

 

Gold failed to rise during its best seasonal time, and when the dollar was declining. These factors alone were bearish signs.

 

In addition, gold jewelry demand was the highest since 2010 in the third quarter, when buyers in Hong Kong and China pushed demand up 40% and 35%.

 

Itís also reported that American Eagle silver coin sales are up at the U.S. Mint, while gold sales are up at the Perth Mint.

 

Youíd think the prices would be up on this robust demand for physical gold and silver, but theyíre not.

 

FIRST BAD YEAR SINCE 2000

 

Investors are loving to hate gold. Hedge funds are the least bullish since 2007. Some investors missed the whole bull market and are now happy to see gold tossed aside.

 

With each passing month, the bearish barometer continues to rise.  But amazingly, gold is not breaking below the June lows easily.

 

Itís been six months now since gold hit $1180 intraday in June.  And itís recently been testing these lows.

 

Will it hold? .... Thatís the million dollar question.  

 

AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE

 

First of all, if the $1180 low is broken, then the intermediate phases will have clearly turned bearish on Chart 1, which shows one of our favorite indicators.

 

 

 

We call the June 2013 low, a D low.  This is when gold falls the worst during a bull or bear market.  An A rise and B decline then follow.

 

The latest A rise was fine when gold rose to its late August high near $1420, gaining about 18%.  This was normal.

 

The B decline has been underway since then.  This 16% decline has lasted over three months and itís a bigger B decline than normal, but itís still okay.

 

But, if gold now stays below $1330 and falls below $1180, this B decline is off, and the bear will clearly take over.  We could then see $1000 gold, eventually.

 

So we are very close to the time of truth.

---

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter named 2010 Letter of the Year by MarketWatch, which provides specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com


-- Posted Tuesday, 31 December 2013 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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