LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com to Launch New Website
By: GoldSeek.com

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse Part 2?
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold and Silver Are Just Getting Started
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Silver Makes High Wave Candle at Target – Here’s What to Expect…
By: Clive Maund

Gold Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On
By: Avi Gilburt

U.S. Mint To Reduce Gold & Silver Eagle Production Over The Next 12-18 Months
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Gold's sharp rise throws Financial Times into an erroneous sulk
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold's unusual strength
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: July-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold's rise is a 'mystery' because journalism always fails to pursue it
By: Chris Powell, GATA

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Hedge Funds Remain Bullish Oil

By: Dan Norcini

 -- Published: Tuesday, 5 January 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

Just as the case with Silver, so do the hedge funds remain stubbornly long in crude oil.

Here is the updated COT chart as of last Tuesday, December 29, 2015.

crude oil cot chart

What intrigues me the most about this chart is that the Commercial entities continue to add to their already sizeable net short position. Clearly they are not lifting short hedges in anticipation of a bottom in oil but instead seem to be bracing for a more protracted period of lower prices.

That is a distinct contrast to the hedge fund community which has ridden this entire move lower in crude and managed to lose huge sums of money in the process. Again, I simply am at a loss to explain this incredible blockheadedness on their part. Maybe they will make it back on the way up when crude finally does bottom out but as to when that will happen, who knows? In the interim, they managed to miss one incredible profit making opportunity by misreading or ignoring the price chart and the technical price patterns.

I guess you can call it a case of “Hope Springs Eternal” when it comes to the large specs and their bullish oil posture because other than that, I have no explanation why they are so other than the fact that in the past, crude oil tended to hit spike lows and then rebound. The problem is that this time around, US production is showing no signs as of yet of being sharply curtailed – at least curtailed enough to make a dent in the supply glut.

I understand the knee-jerk reaction to middle East turmoil and tensions but unless these sort of flare ups actually result in a drop in crude oil production or supplies reaching the world market, blindly buying into a bear market is a counterproductive “tactic” for most traders. The same goes for perennial bottom fishing.

If crude oil is to actually produce a solid bottom and enter a bull market, the charts will show it. One does not have to try to nail some sort of “exact bottom” in the hope of bragging about some penchant for prophetic market insights. In a trending move, pulling 70%-80% out of the trend is more than sufficient to make good profits. One DOES NOT NEED TO buy exact bottoms ( impossible on a consistent basis) or to sell exact tops to make money in these markets.

Remember that.

I am still being very careful in these markets at this time. There remain many conflicting cross currents which can buffet these markets in opposing directions. As said many times here, good traders are more concerned about NOT LOSING their trading capital than they are of missing bottoms or missing tops. Leave the latter for the rookies. When the time comes to be aggressive, you can then push for all it is worth. In the meantime, exercise PATIENCE, something most individuals do not have when it comes to trading and one of the main reasons their careers in this profession are so short-lived.

http://traderdan.com/


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Tuesday, 5 January 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.