Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Bitcoin to Hashgraph: The Crypto Revolution (Hidden Secrets of Money Episode 8)
By: Mike Maloney

SWOT Analysis: Many Gold Traders Bullish After Federal Reserve Rose Rates
By: Frank Holmes

Gold EFPs: Absolute Proof that the Paper Gold Price is a Fraud
By: Stewart Dougherty

Gold’s Shooting Star and Its Implications
By: Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Why 2017 Was a Year to Celebrate
By: John Mauldin

Three Charts That SCREAM "Inflation" in 2018
By: Graham Summers

The Man Who Invented Christmas
By: Larry LaBorde

WORLD SILVER PRODUCTION: 3 Charts You Won’t See Anywhere Else
By: Steve St. Angelo

Explaining My Amazement About Those Turning Bullish On The Banking Sector Now
By: Avi Gilburt

Gold And Silver Futures Swing From Bearish To Bullish In Just Two Weeks
By: John Rubino

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold Commitments of Traders : Worrisome

By: Dan Norcini

 -- Published: Sunday, 13 March 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

To sum up my view of this week’s COT report in one word…. WORRISOME.

I use that word because of what we saw happen to the safe haven trades today on account of that monster rally in the US equity markets.

Gold was under pressure for the entirety of the session today but seemed to especially weaken into the late afternoon hours as the US equity markets kept pushing higher and went out near the highs of the day. That more than likely will translate into additional downside followthrough in Asian trade Sunday evening. Where it goes after that will depend on whether or not dip buyers show up.

Let me show you why I am concerned.

Chart_16-03-11_17-20-04

First of all, on this TWO HOUR CHART, you can see that there was a huge spike in volume last Friday during which gold ran to $1280. Recall that was the day that the payrolls data was released. Yesterday, the day of the announcement by the ECB of additional stimulus measures to be implemented, gold spiked higher but then faded. Notice that the volume was lower. That is a warning that bulls should not ignore.

Now, as long as the lower two support lines hold firm, there is no need for concern. If those lines give way and if price does not recover above them right away, there is the real danger of some significant long side liquidation occurring. Why? Look at this chart of the hedge fund outright positions, both shorts and longs.

hedge fund outrights

This is the highest number of longs that they have carried in thirteen months.

Over against this is the following chart.

commercials gold

This is the largest net short position of the Swap Dealers in the same thirteen months while the Commercials have the largest net short position in 37 months.

On a percentage basis, the combined short positions of the Commercials and the Swap Dealers remain near levels commensurate with interim tops. Also, the combined long position of the large specs is also quite elevated.

combiuned golds

gold cot

This is important – I have not been as concerned about these high levels of spec longs in the market as I would normally been otherwise for the one reason that the reported holdings in GLD have steadily increased during the entire time this imbalance has existed. That development has been a signal that gold demand in the West remains rock solid.

gld holdings

As long as this GLD does not falter, specs will hang tough on the long side. If however, they were to see any faltering of demand, as evidenced by a fall in the reported holdings, plus a downturn in the HUI/Gold ratio, we could see some nervous longs head for the exits.

Chart_16-03-11_18-09-11

We’ll see what we get Sunday evening but unless there is something that changes over the weekend, I expect to see gold open weaker Sunday evening here in the West. Much will depend on whether or not sentiment towards risk remains like it did today ( Friday).

https://traderdan.com/

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Sunday, 13 March 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.