LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - May, 24, 2019
By: GoldSeek.com

BIS reduces its gold swaps by two-thirds over last two months
By: Robert Lambourne

Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q1’19 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research

China Threatens to Stop Exports of Vital “Rare Earth” Metals to U.S
By: Mike Gleason

Every Bounce In Tesla Stock Can Be Shorted
By: Dave Kranzler

Another Gold Buyout Takes Center Stage
By: Marin Katusa

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Laurence J. Kotlikoff
By: Chris Waltzek Ph.D., GoldSeek Radio

Does Ray Dalio really not know better than to invest in GLD?
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Run for the safe havens!
By: Ira Epstein

Why Microsoft Shares Have Become a Safe Haven
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
A Spiking Dollar = Emerging Market Chaos, Part 2: The Story In Four Charts


By: John Rubino



 -- Published: Monday, 4 June 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

For most of the past few years, emerging market stocks and bonds were among the favorite investments of everyone from hedge funds to pension funds to retirees.

Now, not so much.

The next two charts (courtesy of Saturday’s Wall Street Journal) show the huge recent run ending in January, to be replaced by a full-on rout.

emerging market stocks

emerging market bonds

What happened? Well, it turns out that a big part of the apparent success of economies like Argentina and Indonesia came from their ability to borrow in international markets – frequently in US dollars – and use the resulting cash to build roads, bridges, airports, and soccer stadiums — that is, things that imply visible progress. Visitors came, saw all the “modernization,” went home impressed and hit “buy.”

But then US interest rates started to rise and the dollar spiked off of its recent lows. Treasury bonds suddenly started to look attractive relative to EM securities, while all those EM dollar debts began to look onerous rather than wondrous. The hot money decided to leave, putting downward pressure on EM currencies (which makes dollar-denominated debt even harder to pay off) and forcing EM central banks to tighten monetary policy and raise rates.

emerging market currencies

emerging market interest rates

The result? Contraction where once there was limitless growth, and instability where there was rock-solid continuity. Emerging markets have been here before, of course, and history teaches that it will get worse before it gets better.

History also teaches that trouble on the periphery frequently moves towards the center to threaten developed world institutions that were buyers of all that EM dollar debt. Hedge funds, pension funds, bond funds, global stock funds, and major-bank prop trading desks, are all on the hook for Brazilian, Argentine, and Mexican paper, which means – history again – that US taxpayers are actually the ones on the hook.

So watch for apocalyptic headlines as the 1% softens the rest of us up for yet another transfer of wealth from middle to top.

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Monday, 4 June 2018 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus







 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.