LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Silver Seeks to Catch Up With Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

GoldSeek Radio: Bill Murphy and Bob Hoye
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio

Bull or Bear? The Market’s Message
By: Plunger

Gold Market Update - “so far so good”
By: Clive Maund

Investors Blinded by Greed, but Not for Much Longer
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold Monthly Chart breaking out
By: Ira Epstein

FT's Martin Wolf: Who cares about the prices of useless metals and market rigging?
By: Chris Powell, GATA

The Drip, Drip, Drip of Recession
By: David Haggith

Anatomy of an Impulse Move in the Precious Metals
By: Rambus

Recession Rumbles
By: John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold And Silver Are Acting Like It’s 2008. They May Be Right


By: John Rubino



 -- Published: Tuesday, 4 September 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

2008 has special significance for gold bugs, both because of the money they lost in August of the year and the money they made in the half-decade that followed. Today’s world is beginning to feel eerily similar.

Let’s start with a little background. The mid-2000s economy boomed in part because artificially low interest rates had ignited a housing mania which featured a huge increase in “subprime” mortgage lending. This – as all subprime lending binges eventually do – began to unravel in 2007. The consensus view was that subprime was “peripheral” and therefore unimportant. Here’s Fed Chair Ben Bernanke giving ever-credulous CNBC the benefit of his vast bubble experience.

The experts were catastrophically wrong, and in 2008 the periphery crisis spread to the core, threatening to kill the brand-name banks that had grown to dominate the US and Europe. The markets panicked, with even gold and silver (normally hedges against exactly this kind of financial crisis) plunging along with everything else. Gold lost about 20% of its market value in a single month:

Gold price in 2008

Gold mining stocks – always more volatile than the underlying metal – lost about half their value.

HUI gold bugs index in 2008

Silver also fell harder than gold, taking the gold/silver ratio from around 50 to above 80 — meaning that it took 80 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold.

Gold/silver ratio in 2008

The world’s governments reacted to the crisis by cutting interest rates to record lows and flooding the financial system with credit. And precious metals and related mining stocks took off on an epic bull market. So it’s easy to see why the investors thus enriched look back on 2008 with nostalgia.


source: tradingeconomics.com

Is History Repeating?
Now fast forward to Autumn 2018. The global economy is booming because of artificially low interest rates and massive lending to all kinds of subprime borrowers. One group of them – the emerging market countries – made the mistake of borrowing trillions of US dollars in the hope that the greenback would keep falling versus their national currencies, thus giving them a profitable carry trade.

Instead the dollar is rising, threatening to bankrupt a growing list of these countries – which, crucially, owe their now unmanageable debts to US and European banks. The peripheral crisis, once again, is moving to the core.

And once again, gold and especially silver are getting whacked. This morning the gold/silver ratio popped back above the 2008 level.

Gold/silver ratio Sept 2018 2008

So are we back there again? Maybe. Some of the big western banks would probably fail if several major emerging markets default on their debts. And historically – at least since the 1990s – the major central banks have responded to this kind of threat with lower rates, loan guarantees and, more recently, massive and coordinated financial asset purchases.

So watch the Fed. If the EM crisis leads to talk of suspending the rate increase program and possibly restarting QE, then we’re off to the races. Just like 2008.

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Tuesday, 4 September 2018 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus







 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.