Gold Today –On Dec 24^th the gold price in New York rose stood at $1,198.50 the dollar stood at $1.3677: €1. Today we see gold having touched $1,238 and the dollar at $1.3607: €1. Asia is mainly responsible for the rise in prices ahead of London’s. Today the gold price was Fixed at $1,238.00. Ahead of the opening in New York gold stood at $1,237.40 and in the euro at €909.38.

Silver Today – On Dec 24^th silver closed at $19.44 while it opened in London today at $20.05. Ahead of New York’s opening, it was trading the same as Friday at $20.05.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

The gold price could be weaker today but could produce a big surprise, in New York.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

The silver price could be weaker today but could produce a big surprise, in New York.

Price Drivers

Since Dec 24^th 2013 the gold price has risen determinedly to $1,240 in thin trading in London and the U.S. but with continuing robust demand from China. Last week New York and London did not fight the rise. This has produced a healthy short and long term technical pattern, which is why we may see a surprising market in the next few days. COMEX has not seen such a major short position combined with a record net speculative long position for some years, so if the gold price does turn up the potential for major short covering accelerating the rise is great. But if the shorts are right and the gold price falls, it is clear now that Chinese demand will explode.

The case for lower gold prices has become extremely weak as a result. However, we have no doubt that China is well pleased with lower gold prices as it can buy enormous quantities cheaply. It rather defeats the theories of market forces in that regard. We can say for certain that the forces behind gold price moves in the last few months are not united and may even be working against each other making 2014 a year which will see the gold market experience fundamental structural changes.

But this is not seen in the U.S. based SPDR gold ETF holdings which fell from 805.718 tonnes to 794.621 tonnes and the Gold Trust holdings from 165.36 tonnes to 161.83 tonnes since Dec 24^th 2013.  [Find out more from www.GoldForecaster.com and www.SilverForecaster.com to subscribe to our newsletters and visit www.StockbridgeMgMt.com to hold gold so it can’t be seized]  

The government of India has been formally asked to lower duties and restrictions on gold imports. The damage being done to the gold industry there is deep. With the middle classes of any country being critical in an election [due in May] we continue to expect an announcement from the government of India any time now.

We would like to emphasize a major point that will impact gold prices and on which subject we will be producing future articles. Indian demand is routed through the London market through the bullion banks. The bulk of Chinese demand is not going through London, but through any source they can find. Demand that is not routed through London does not impact the gold price.

Silver – The silver price will outrun gold on any turn up in prices.

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters

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 -- Published: Monday, 6 January 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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