Gold Today –New York saw gold try to fall to $1,238 but then recover with Asia holding it at that level ahead of the opening in London. The dollar traded at $1.3542: €1.London traded around $1,238 until the Fixing, which was set at $1,239.50 down $8.25 on Tuesday. In the euro, it Fixed at €915.971 down €6.03. Ahead of the opening in New York gold stood at $1,240.35 and in the euro at €915.93.

Silver Today –The silver price stood at $19.80 at the close in New York with Asia lifting it 5 cents before London’s opening. Ahead of New York’s opening, it was trading at $19.85.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

We expect a positive bias to the gold price today, in New York.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

We expect a positive bias to the silver price today, in New York.

Price Drivers

Yesterday saw no sales from the SPDR gold ETF [GLD] or the Gold Trust gold ETFs leaving their respective holdings at 797.054 tonnes and 161.37 tonnes. We are watching carefully to see which way buying or selling goes as this is having a disproportionate influence on the gold price in the States.

The strength of ongoing support and its persistence is adding a good tone to the precious metal prices at the moment. [Find out more from www.GoldForecaster.com and www.SilverForecaster.com to subscribe to our newsletters and visit www.StockbridgeMgMt.com to hold gold so it can’t be seized] We suspect that should these prices be positive for the rest of this week, we will see short covering add momentum to these prices.

Across in India, smuggling of gold is booming. Estimates of 200 tonnes + being smuggled are thumb sucks as smugglers don’t report their volumes. However, despite the government announcing that restrictions and import duties are ‘soon’ to be eased import tariffs have been raised. Tariff value is the base price on which the customs duty on imported gold or silver is calculated and counters under-invoicing. The import tariff value of gold was hiked by 3.83% and that of silver was hiked by 3.92% to $407 per 10 grams. The import tariffs are being hiked from the existing $392 per 10 grams. Meanwhile the import tariff value of silver has also been hiked from $638 per kilogram to $663 per kilogram. While this is not a direct import duty, it adds to the attractiveness of smuggling.

In next door neighboring Pakistan, a ban on gold importing has been imposed after reports indicated surge in smuggling into India. Pakistan did this on July 30 for 30 days before lifting it. Clearly, smuggling of gold into India more than pays its way!

Why is this important to developed world investors? Because Indian government restrictions on gold imports have cut them to 10% of the 1,000 tonne level seen before they were imposed. With the gold price robust in the absence of such demand their return will have a massive impact on the gold price!

Silver – The silver price is cautiously waiting for gold to lead the way.

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters

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 -- Published: Wednesday, 22 January 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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