Gold Today –New York pulled back slightly to $1,268 from $1,271 at the close on Friday. Asia took it to $1,271 ahead of the opening in London. The dollar traded unchanged at $1.3686. London traded it up until the Fixing, which was set at $1,270.00 up $10.75 on Friday. In the euro, it Fixed at €927.820 up €7.383 reflecting a stronger dollar which stood at $1.3669. Ahead of the opening in New York gold stood at $1,267.60 and in the euro at €927.15.

Silver Today –The silver price did not move up with gold falling to $19.87 back from over $20 at the close in New York. Asia held it there before London’s opening. Ahead of New York’s opening, it was trading at $19.92.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

We expect gold to consolidate in a tight range today, in New York.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

We expect silver to hold back waiting for gold to show the way, in New York.

Price Drivers

Friday saw no sales of gold from the SPDR gold ETF [GLD] and none sold from the Gold Trust gold ETFs, leaving their respective holdings at 790.456 tonnes and 161.37 tonnes. Friday is a day we expect action in these funds, but none came. We need to see a fortnight of either no sales or purchases before we are convinced that the sales have halted. But Friday’s inaction was a small positive step in that direction.

The gold price is now showing a positive Technical picture but need to move to over $1,300 before it shows a trend change. Last week saw a lot of important work done by the gold price, in this regard. This week becomes an important week for gold and silver too.

Developed world traders look at the condition of the $: € exchange rate as a guide to where they think toe gold price should be. For a moment place yourself in the position of an emerging world investor and see him look through his currency at the gold price. To get this clear in your mind imagine the gold price was static at $1,250 for the time being. In the South Africa Rand the gold price in the last two weeks has risen around 6% as the currency has fallen.  In the Yen, since Abenomics began, the Yen has fallen 25% making the gold price rise by the same. In Argentina last week saw a 14% devaluation which reflected in a higher Peso gold price. What does this do to the reputation of gold in those countries? It’s in these countries that gold sees the greatest demand because of its ability to hold value.

At the moment, the dollar is weakish against the euro and is likely to remain so until interest rates there are the same as the U.S., as the ‘recovery’ in Europe remains fragile, threatened and vulnerable, with the I.M.F. warning against asset bubbles and deflation, last weekend, again. [Find out more from www.GoldForecaster.com and www.SilverForecaster.com to subscribe to our newsletters and visit www.StockbridgeMgMt.com to hold gold so it can’t be seized] Today could be a decisive day! Gold is doing its job and looks to do it better soon!

Silver – The silver price had a wide spread between the bid and offer prices, at the opening telling us dealers see uncertainty over the direction of the silver price. This is unusual.

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters

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 -- Published: Monday, 27 January 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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