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Gold & Silver Market Morning: May 23, 2014

 -- Published: Friday, 23 May 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

Gold Today – The gold price closed at $1,294.00 up $3.50 on yesterday, in New York. In Asia and London the price held there.  The gold Fixing was set at $1,292.00 down $2.50 and in the euro at €948.605 up €2.679 while the euro stood weaker at $1.3620. Ahead of New York’s opening the gold price was at $1,291.60 and at €948.28.


Silver Today – The silver price closed at $19.50 up 5 cents yesterday, in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening, it was trading at $19.43.


Gold (very short-term)


The gold price will continue in a tight range before a strong move either way, in New York.


Silver (very short-term)


The silver price will continue in a tight range before a strong move either way, in New York.


Price Drivers

During the week we have seen the euro steadily fall against the dollar and the dollar slip against other main currencies. This is against a backdrop of the tacit acceptance that policies that indirectly weaken a currency are acceptable, despite the G-8 agreement not to do so. The markets are waiting for June to see the E.C.B. implement policies that will weaken the euro.


As we forecast gold is holding or rising against all currencies except the Indian Rupee, which is strengthening against the backdrop of a new government. We do not expect to see new Indian demand feed through to gold prices until next week, after the easing of some of the restrictions on gold importing seen this week. [More on this in the next issue of the Gold Forecaster -]


The steady sideways movement of the gold price has now continued for over a month in such a tight range that its subsequent move will be very strong, more than a simple short-term wave. Gold investors should be cautious. We have our opinion, but each investor must decide for themselves which way gold & silver will move.


The Russia/China Gazprom deal will lead to 25% of China’s energy requirements being met on the current numbers in the contract, by 2018. We note that this number allows for an increase in this supply thereafter. If we combine this with the internationalization of the Yuan happening in many countries, we see China is building a strong base of operations for the Yuan that allows it to control the value of the Yuan exchange rate as it is doing now with its ‘moving peg’ against the dollar.  As always, China wants to control this rate and manage the internationalization process without being vulnerable to ‘attack’ which could disrupt its control. It is with this in mind that China is accumulating gold in ‘official’ hands and in Chinese citizen’s hands. We are convinced that if it suits the nation’s interests, the Chinese government will require its citizens to hand over their gold to them. We do not believe that China has set a ‘ceiling’ on the amount of gold it will acquire!


There were no sales or purchases of gold from the SPDR gold ETF or from the Gold Trust yesterday. Their respective holdings stand at 776.893 tonnes and 164.02 tonnes.


Silver – The silver price is riveted to the gold price [More in the]



Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters


Global Gold Price (1 ounce)

















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