-- Posted Sunday, 19 October 2003 | Digg This Article
What's new? New commentary. A GREAT tip on how to track stocks yourself. 42 total silver stocks in this report, and symbols to research on 20 others, and 5 more new ones. It was another very busy week for me, and I did not get a chance to research about 25 stocks I really wanted to get to, partly because I was also sick. Next week will include a few more. Please keep those tips coming if you know of a silver stock not already on this list. I'll get to it in time.
Price of silver is $4.92 as of Friday, 2pm, which was used to calculate the following figures. The CAN $ / US $ conversion factor is .7602. I will use .76 for ease.
Stock Symbol Approx. number of silver oz. "in ground"** for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
HL .46 --current producer
CDE 1.9 --current producer
IPOAF.PK 1.88 --current producer
GRS / GAM.TO 3.13 --current producer
MFN / MFL.TO 3.8
FSR.TO 6.3 --current producer
MR.TO / METLF.OB 6.6
PAAS 8.1 --current producer
WTZ / WTC.TO 8.9
MGR.V / MGRSF.PK 9.9
* CZN.TO / CZICF.PK 9.68 --high grades can mine at profit, low start up costs
GQM.TO / GQMNF.PK 10.6
SSRI 12.6 --multi-property company, understands silver story
* CFTN.PK 12.8 -- 127 larger number is "exploration potential".
ADB.V 15.1 --actively expanding resources.
TM.V / TUMIF.PK 16.4
SVL.V / STVZF.PK 18.1 --actively expanding resources.
DNI.V 22 --active on Clifton's property.
MAI.V / MNEAF.OB 26.7 --silver "equiv." real silver quantity I don't know.
ECU.V 34 --gold bonus
* ASM.V / ASGMF.PK 34.5 --owns 49% of a prior working silver mine.
* FAN.TO / FRLLF.PK 36 --low grades, may have 1.7 to 4 times more silver.
* SRLM.PK 38 --recently acquired the Sunshine mine.
* MNMM.OB 47 --copper bonus, start up cost may need ~$250 million
* = I own shares
Explorers (by market cap):
IMR.V / IMXPF.OB
* CDU.V / CUEAF.PK
TVI.TO / TVIPF.PK --current producer of a dore silver bar 96% silver, 4% gold
EPZ.V / ESPZF.PK
IAU.V / ITDXF.PK 19
* NPG.V / NVPGF.PK 56-279 "exploration potential"
MMG.V / MMEEF.PK
* = I own shares
** = "in ground" includes all "oz. in the ground" as equal, but they are NOT EQUAL. Some are more certain and others are more speculative. They range from most certain to least certain such as: proven reserves, probable reserves, indicated resources, inferred resources. Some numbers are even "exploration potential" especially if there is a range. Numbers are not all 43-101 compliant.
The single number next to each stock symbol above represents the approximate number of ounces of silver in the ground you are buying title to when you invest the equivalent of one ounce of silver by buying shares in the company at current prices. (It does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver.)
To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below. Then, you will go directly to the summary about that company. Since this is a long document, that is much easier than trying to scroll down.
What happened to the market in a few of the choice silver stocks since my first report, a month ago?
* CZN.TO / CZICF.PK .41 .72 up 75%
* CFTN.PK .29 .45 up 55%
* SRLM.PK $3.95 5.25 up 32%
* MNMM.OB $2.55 3.65 up 56%
ECU.V .085 .12 up 41%
* = I own shares
That is a "month to month" performance since Friday, Sept. 19th to this Friday, Oct. 17th.
Quite a few others have also performed similarly, such as DNI.V, ASM.V, FAN.TO, and NPG.V. I did not even know about those stocks when I published my first list a month ago. It's been quite a month!
WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):
Before paper money was created to excess and distorted values, "More than any other metal, silver was the foundation on which family fortunes, industrial employment, and development of mining areas were based." Source: http://historytogo.utah.gov/silver.html One of the most amazing displays of wealth I've ever seen in my life was when I visited Hearst Castle in California. Hearst inherited a family fortune built from silver mining.
Buy physical silver now, while it's still cheap, and under 5 bucks an ounce. For me, "profit taking" means increasing my allocation of physical silver... or keeping the percentage allocation of physical silver in my portfolio the same or rising as my silver stocks rise in value faster than silver.
I recommend that about 20% of the portfolio at this time be in physical silver, the rest in silver stocks. For me, diversification means silver bars: 100 oz. retail bars and 1000 oz. COMEX bars., 90% "junk" silver coins, silver rounds, and the 9 silver stocks I own.
I would never trade on margin, never borrow against the silver, and never buy a futures contract. Thus, I can't be broken by price swings, like the Hunt brothers were in 1980, and I can afford to wait it out however long it takes for the silver price to skyrocket.
As the bull market in silver progresses, the risk of default in futures contracts increases. And the risk of bankruptcy for the silver stocks is greatly reduced.
Again, silver has monetary potential. Silver is money. But unlike paper money, the value of which always goes eventually to zero, the value of real physical silver cannot go to zero. The excess paper wealth that currently exists will eventually flood to gold and silver when people realize the truth that dollars are fraudulent, and they panic. And what is the comparison in size of the paper markets and silver markets? How precariously balanced and overextended are the paper dollar markets today?
The Bond Market is estimated in size between 13 Trillion and 18 Trillion dollars. I don't have a good source for this yet. Can anyone help me and send me a url for this? Is there one? Do they keep this a secret somehow? Bonds are assets, essentially money. Investment demand was taken away from gold in 1980 because bonds were paying such a high interest rate, and gold pays "none". (Yet, gold appreciated 34% per year from 1971 to 1980, not a bad return!) The point is that if investment demand shifted from gold to bonds, then it must shift back again.
Liquid money (M3) is $8.9 Trillion as of August, 2003. Source:
This is money in the banking system, ready to buy whatever people wish to buy.
Imagine $15 Trillion (Bonds) + $8.9 Trillion (M3) in wealth coming into the gold and silver markets. That's what will happen.
Market cap of "silver stocks" on this list: Didn't have the time to calculate, but I estimate it's about $4-6 Billion.
The value of the remaining physical silver at the COMEX as of close of business: 10/15/2003: 109 million oz. Source: http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/sil_fut_wareho.jsp Market cap of that silver at $4.90/oz. = $534 million.
Now, I don't know about you, but the way I see it is... see that the relatively tiny pile of silver? That's money. See those huge numbers out there in bonds and M3? That's not money, but fraud. It's potential claims on money (gold and silver). Since the fraud is in convincing people that paper is money, then when the fraud gets exposed, the holders of paper will want real money, which is gold or silver.
Now, some people get confused with Trillions, Billions and Millions. (I almost did when writing this article!) The paper money is in the Trillions, which is a Million Million. Real money is in the millions. So, what percent of the Bond market and M3 could buy all the silver at the COMEX? $534 million worth of silver / (15,000,000 million (Bonds) + 8,900,000 million (M3)) = 0.002% In other words, there is not enough silver available at the COMEX for even 2 out of every 100,000 dollars in bonds and M3! If even 1 out of every 100,000 dollars actually tried to buy real silver, the price of silver would go absolutely ballistic.
If you know someone who owns bonds, do them a wake up call, and tell them that, or send them this page, and ask them what they think about this.
And here's what I think: The risk of owning bonds today is huge and scary, and the return is nothing, less than inflation. The risk of owning silver today is nil, and the returns will be so great as to be nearly impossible to comprehend and calculate.
When silver soon hits $50/oz., people will be extremely excited, and the wildly bullish factors for silver will likely still be in place. By then, the argument will likely be shouted around the world (but reduced in bullishness ten-fold): "If only 1 out of 10,000 dollars in bonds and M3 go into silver, the price of silver will go ballistic." But by then, the silver bulls will also have incredible momentum on their side. Today, all we have with regard to momentum (and I'm being sarcastic here) is the 2-4 year bull market in gold and the average of 106% rise in the 60+ silver stocks I've been tracking since Jan. 2003.
The smartest money will buy silver, because it is undervalued relative to gold. The current ratio is about 75:1. The historic ratio is about 15:1. Due to the silver shortage caused by industrial consumption, the ratio may hit 10:1 or better for silver. Some seriously expect 5:1 or even a spike up to 1:1. Today's silver investors who understand the real silver story will make fortunes.
Numismatics vs. Bullion:
Numismatics are coins with additional collector value that makes them cost well above the bullion cost, (usually 15% or over). Bullion coins or metal is priced at or very near the spot price (within 5-10%). Numismatics are not money because they are not "fungible". It's also why diamonds are not money. I don't like numismatics particularly because numismatic dealers often scare people away from investing in bullion in general through exagerating unwarranted fears about the chance of government confiscation, which I think is near to zero. Some very, very good articles can be found here:
The Gold Confiscation Hydra
I believe numismatic coins have value mostly because of the intensive marketing efforts of the numismatic dealers, and because people today have far more wealth than is reasonable, due to the overvalued dollar. Today, a rare, old, and pretty silver coin may sell for up to and over 100 times the value of the underlying metal. But in a world where silver is money, and the excesses of the dollar do not exist, I think very few people would be willing to exchange 100 bullion silver coins for one nice-looking rare one.
Brokerages for investors in the USA that handle Canadian issues and pink sheets:
www.ameritrade.com Internet,$10.99; Telephone System, $14.99; Broker-assisted: $24.99 Market orders,
$29.99 Limit orders
www.penntrade.com online trading, $29.95/trade. no extra charges for market orders, limit orders, large volume, small volume, stocks under $1.00, or Canadian, Pink Sheets, or OTCBB.
www.pennaluna.com --for broker assisted trades, starting at $45/trade.
(If you know of any other good brokers for CAN issues, & PK stocks, email me. Jasonhommel@yahoo.com Some investors are telling me their brokers cannot buy Canadian stocks or the pink sheets.)
Here's a great tip. It's what I do to help myself prepare this report each week. You can set up and track a group of stocks for free at yahoo.com. Do this. Seriously. Right now. Click on yahoo finance. Take a minute to register. Sign in. At the top of the page you can "create" a portfolio. Choose "track your current holdings". In the large box, copy and paste the following symbols (Use your mouse to highlight the text, then use control-C to copy, control-V to paste).
XAGUSD=X BHP GMBXF.PK HL CDE IPOAF.PK GRS GAM.TO MFN MFL.TO SIL FSR.TO MR.TO METLF.OB PAAS WTZ WTC.TO MGR.V MGRSF.PK CZN.TO CZICF.PK GQM.TO GQMNF.PK SSRI CFTN.PK ADB.V TM.V TUMIF.PK SVL.V STVZF.PK DNI.V MAI.V MNEAF.OB ECU.V ASM.V ASGMF.PK FAN.TO FRLLF.PK SRLM.PK MNMM.OB IMR.V IMXPF.OB MCAJF.PK CDU.V CUEAF.PK MAG.V TVI.TO TVIPF.PK EPZ.V ESPZF.PK IAU.V ITDXF.PK NPG.V NVPGF.PK NJMC.OB MMG.V MMEEF.PK SPM.V EXN.V GNG.V SHSH.PK ROK.V ITRO.OB HDA.V QTA.V VGZ EZM.V UNCN.OB MMGG.OB MTB.V III.TO IPMLF.PK KBR.V MSLM.PK MAR.AX RRM.V SBUM.PK FWGO.OB MEMLA.PK SLSR.PK SDSI.PK HRNS.PK HOGOF.PK EXR.V GPXM.OB MAN.TO EXR.V HGM.V GOCM.OB
The first symbol, "XAGUSD=X" lets you track the silver price. These symbols are in the exact order they appear in this weekly report, so this way, you can follow along what's taking place in the silver market on a daily basis. Also, you can easily access charts for any of these, such as 1 day, 5 day, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, 2 year, or 5 year charts. You will love being able to access this information so quickly from your own continually updating "silver stock page". You will also be able to see, in one place, right at the end of the list, the news releases for each stock on the list (if the company has their PR act together).
Here is how to track the price of your Pink Sheets stocks. The PK symbols do not update volume or price too often, if at all. This is often due to the laziness of the pink sheet dealers. To get the price and volume of your stock, look up the Canadian symbol. Then, multiply the Canadian price by the exchange rate, which today is about .76. That will give your US dollar price. Then, add about 1-3% for commissions for trading through the pink sheet dealers to get an idea of what you might pay. But due to the lack of liquidity in these, sometimes a single moderately-sized order can move the price up 15% if you buy in a hurry, so be prepared for that. If you put in a low price, sometimes your limit order will be filled if you are patient, and the price moves back down to your order, and that might take a few days, or perhaps never if the stock takes off well above your price.
To the mining companies: why do you bury your key information deep within your web sites and make it so hard to find? On the main page of your web site you should put the following: Number of shares outstanding. Number of shares fully diluted, and the date you last did the calculation. Total reserves & resources for gold and silver, one number summaries for each metal would be nice, but at the very least put one number on your reserves, and one number on your resources. Is that too much to ask?
http://www.goldengoliath.com/ somewhat understands... They have the shares outstanding listed on the front page, but no resource or reserve estimates. I can forgive them for that, they are an explorer.
http://www.sterlingmining.com/ somewhat understands... They have the reserves and resources listed for the Sunshine on the front page, but the number of shares outstanding is on another page.
Come on, show us what you got. Up front. I do, I put the summary table up on top.
Several people asked me about China this week. Weird. I don't know when or how or why I somehow became an expert on China, but here is my rant on China: I love "made in China". I buy low, sell high. I almost never buy "stuff," but this week I bought some very nice black leather shoes for $25, "made in China". Why do I buy cheap? It was a good trade! So many people misunderstand free trade and China.
Considering China, slave labor could not produce any cheaper. We could not do better than if we went over to China, conquered them with our military, and made them all become our slaves. Yes, our trade advantage is that great. We don't have to fear them conquering us, we have already conquered them--they work at less than slave labor prices--which proves it. They don't have the trade advantage with us, we have the advantage with them. We send over worthless paper, and they send us stuff we want and need--otherwise we don't buy it!
I believe our government "complains" in order to convince our "enemies" to dig in their heels and keep the game going. See, I think we fool them into thinking they have the advantage. If communist China understood free markets at all, they would not let us take advantage of them as we are doing with our trade advantage. They would demand an honest form of payment for their goods, such as gold or silver. Furthermore, with the comparatively little money we do send, they are much less able to buy what they otherwise would with more it, like oil or other resources, because we pay them so little.
Imagine if we were to trick the Arabs into selling us oil for $5/barrel. Would Texas oil companies complain about not being able to compete? You bet. But it would still be a great deal for the rest of us. Same with China.
Imagine, we get all this great stuff, and they get paper, and very little of it. And when the dollar crashes, the dollars they have been saving from trading with us will have even less paper value. And actually, they will get hit with a third blow, because when the dollar crashes, and we are unable to buy all their cheap stuff, what will they do? They will have over-capacity, mal-investment, and will not likely be able to compete, because they never learned to be efficient enough. Poor China.
Our economic mystics sometimes claim that China could break us by dumping the US bonds they hold. Preposterous! The Fed could buy them up in a snap, and not even hiccup. The Fed created the Bonds out of thin air in the first place! Ah, but what would China buy with the dollars they received from the sale of the bonds? Some people are scared at the notion that China could secretly buy gold or silver--only because those types of people defend the fraud of the dollar. China needs to demand gold and/or silver. Message to China: "China, please demand gold, and save us from the fraud of the dollar. And save yourself from being slaves. Be free!" When will people understand free markets?!
The people in the US who primarily lose out on this great advantage of the overvalued dollar and undervalued "made in China" goods are the xenophobes who refuse to "sell high and buy low" and buy the cheap "made in China" goods.
And, yes, misguided workers here (who have become the socialists and communists and think the world owes them a living) complain that they cannot compete with cheap Chinese labor. But it's not like there's nothing else to do in the world than make cheap shoes or other cheap goods. There is an infinite amount of work to do in the world to make it a better place for all to live. I know this because I'm an entrepreneur who has started up two businesses. Why sit around and complain? Take advantage of the infinite other opportunities that exist, and get to work! Here's an opportunity: Go to China and start teaching English! Given the fact that dollars are well over 100 times more valuable than they should be, anyone in the United States should be willing to work here to earn any dollars possible, and live as frugally as possible, in order to buy more silver. This is still the land of opportunity, which explains the continuing flood of immigrants from Mexico.
Thus, the only ones who lose out on free trade are the communists, both here and abroad. Some entrepreneurs and employers also complain also about the trade imbalance. But here's a law of life: change. If an activity is uneconomical, then stop that activity, and do something else. That's how free markets work. If you can't compete, then you should get out of the race. Embrace the change, and change what you are doing. People stopped hauling ice from mountaintops, and they stopped making buggy whips and wooden wheels, and thank God we have machines now to move rock instead of hand picks and shovels. Find a profitable activity. I have. I'm buying silver and silver stocks. If all the capitalists in the USA bought gold and silver bullion with their dollars, then overnight it would topple the current goverment with their burdonsome regulations that is supported by the fraudulent Federal Reserve machine, and it would put the taxing and meddling socialists out on the streets, looking for honest work, where they belong. Then you'd have plenty of cheap labor in this nation to hire, and fewer regulations getting in the way of further profits. It's the cycle of change that's coming.
Just about the only thing cheaper than "made in China" is physical silver, or neglected silver mining companies. So, let's move onward to the opportunities in silver!
This is a list of primary silver stocks.
I count a company's ounces of gold as 10 oz of silver. Why? Because I have a positive bias in favor of silver over gold.
Given my bias in favor of much, much higher silver prices, then, to me, the grades of silver are far less important than buying more oz. in the ground. More oz. in the ground at a lower cost is the most important consideration for me.
My method is simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get (silver reserve totals), and how much does it cost (market cap)? The cost is the market cap divided by the silver reserve totals. Cheaper is better. Buy low, sell high.
Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information below over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to the best of my ability. I may have made mistakes. I probably did. I'm human. I have collected the information from public sources such as company web sites and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This report in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the information may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares can change as a company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through private placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and converted into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated, or split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change, as these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down, depending on drilling results.
This information is not intended as a solicitation for any company.
All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of certainty which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the least accurate, there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to estimate. Additionally, every miner always has "more silver properties that need to be explored, which probably contain more silver". For the purposes of this report, I have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these "ounce in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce silver, or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above, that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.
I may be wrong. (I probably make mistakes in every article, and there have been updates and corrections made each week, especially as prices change.)
Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Silver stock companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, or issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the company you may own (dilution). Yet, they need to issue shares to raise capital for drilling, and then an even bigger dilution to build a working mine. They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, or worse, hedge the price of YOUR silver just as it begins to go up if they lock in a price which then proves to be too low if the dollar is destroyed. Mining is a risky business as estimates of assets in the ground can change. There is political risk and environmental risk. They can't franchise the business, are stuck in one location, are subject to government confiscation, or taxes, or union wage negotiations, and corporate looting.
Do your own research. Be responsible for your own investment decisions. Again, please, before investing in a mining company, call up the company, and speak either with the CEO or the Investor Relations contact person.
So, at the very least, check the company web site, read the annual reports, check my numbers, check my math, and email the company. That's what they are there for, to answer your questions, and to speak about the opportunity of the company. Don't trust everything you read over the internet. I am a biased source. I own silver mining stocks. And I'm not a broker, nor an investment advisor. I'm just a private investor trying to make sense of this crazy world, and sharing my information and thoughts on silver companies.
This report may be copied, and transmitted by other people, and may become outdated by the time it reaches you.
I can't tell you how you should invest your money, of course. The reason is that I don't know how convinced you are of the silver bull market, nor do I know how soon you will be needing the money back, so I don't know how long you can wait to see results, nor do I know how much liquidity you need. Nor do I know the size of the money you have to invest. It is very hard to invest large quantities of money in a small market cap stock.
That being said, my investment strategy seems to be working for me, so far. And so, here is how I have valued the following silver companies to make my own investment decisions.
(Market cap is always converted to US dollars and denominated in US dollars because I divide by ounces of silver, which are also denominated in dollars)
BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP)
--'produces 40 mil oz. silver annually from one mine'
Additional comments: unfortunately, BHP has a 49 Billion market cap, so we can't buy BHP for the "silver exposure". IE, $49 Billion / oh, say, 1000 million?????= $49/oz.
Hello? BHP? By all means, keep mining the silver if you want the silver exposure, and want to be in the silver busines. But don't sell the silver. Keep it. Let the profits of your entire company accrue as an increasing physical supply of physical silver. In fact, do as Buffett did, and buy more silver if you can. It would be infinitely easier for you to buy silver from yourself than it would be to buy 40 million ounces of silver from the COMEX, which, today, might be impossible.
Grupo Mexico SA de CV (GMBXF.PK)
"Grupo Mexico ranks as the world's third largest copper producer, fourth largest producer of silver and fifth largest producer of zinc."
Phone: (208) 769-4100
109 mil shares @ $5.61 share
$616 million Market Cap (MC)
near zero debt, cash: $113 mil
(est. 2003 production 9 mil oz. silver)
(the La Camorra gold mine, 412,000 oz gold.) ... (x 350/5 = 28 mil silver equivalent oz.)
San Sebastian silver mine, (proven & probably reserves) 8.7 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Greens Creek silver mine (proven & probably reserves) 31 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Lucky Friday mine (proven & probably reserves) 14 mil. (produced 2 mil)
Total silver = 53.7 million oz.
Plus 412,000 oz. gold x 10 = 4.1 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv. reserves = 57.8 mil oz.
$616 mil MC / 57.8 mil = $10.65/oz.
You get "approx" .46 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: HL has more oz. than listed in the "proven & probable" category used in this calculation.
Another way to check the value of HL is too look at profit, since they are active miners. They mine 9 million ounces of silver a year. What's the profit on that today? Very little. Total production costs are $3.68/oz. Profit at $5.25 is $1.57/oz x 9 mil oz. annual production = $14.3 million annual profit. Give a PE of 616/14 = 44. That's a very high P/E, which means HL is expensive.
What will they earn if silver is $15/oz., and production stays the same? The $10 increase in price would be pure profit, or $90 million. So, $14 mil + $90 mil = $104 mil. profit at $15/oz. for silver. Thus, we might expect their market cap to be ten times that, or $1,040 million, to create a P/E ratio of 10. Thus, we could expect silver to go up 300% to $15/oz., and expect HL's stock price to increase from $616 mil to $1040 mil, or a 68% increase.
Thus, if you expect silver to go up 300%, and HL can be expected to go up only 68% during that time, then you don't want to own HL!
Also, why does HL hold $113 million dollars worth of cash at the beginning of a bull market in silver? It makes no sense to me. Cash is trash in inflation. They should be buying physical silver, or, use that cash to buy other silver resources in the ground.
178 mil shares
@ share price $3.25
$581 mil MC
Debt to/ E = 1.17 (converting debt to shares)... (may add ~40-100 mil shares)
cash $38 mil
San Bartolome (Bolivia) reserves 146 mil silver
Silver Valley Silver reserves 32 mil silver
Rochester reserves 43 mil silver
Cerro Bayo reserves 3.7 mil silver
Total: 224.7 mil silver
(to Produce 14.6 mil oz. silver in 2003)
$581 mil MC / 224.7 mil oz = $2.58/oz.
You get "approx" 1.9 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: They also have a NYSE listing. Maybe that explains things. Maybe some institutional money managers are limited to NYSE silver stocks. Or maybe people think a NYSE listing means "credibility". I don't. CDE is also a significant silver producer, 14.6 million ounces/yr. And I think that is a negative to sell silver when it is so cheap. Debt is another negative.
Again, their listing of ounces is in the "reserves" category (more certain) not the "resources" category, which is less certain. They probably have "resources" but like HL and Industrias Penoles, they give no estimates.
397.5 mil shares outstanding (2002 annual unchanged since 2001)
$1,093 mil MC
419 proven and probable reserves of silver (from 2002 annual report on website)
$1,093 mil MC / 419 oz. silver = $2.60/oz.
You get "approx" 1.88 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Industrias Penoles is the world's top producer of refined silver. They actually derrive more revenue from silver than any other source. But they lost money in 2002.
78.5 million oz. silver produced by the metals division in 2002, and 1 mil oz. gold.
I think Industrias Penoles should stop mining silver if they are doing it at a loss. Basic econ 101, right? Don't engage in uneconomical activity. Perhaps they have a small gain this year with improved prices? Regardless, they should realize that silver in the ground is an asset, and also that silver in the hand is an asset. If they do make a profit, I hope they decide to keep the form of their profits in silver, or at least, pay out a dividend in silver.
Their oz. numbers are "proven & probable reserves", which is much more certain than most of the others which are mostly "inferred and indicated resources." They undoubtedly have "inferred and indicated resources" in addition to the "proven & probable reserves," I just could not find any info on that at the website or in the annual report.
GRS / GAM.TO
Phone: (902) 468-0614
fully diluted 52 mil shares
@ share price $3.95
$157 MIL MC
"With the drilling of over 179 holes totalling over 33,700-metres, the resource calculation contains 761,000 gold ounces and 38.2-million silver ounces in the measured and indicated categories and a further 925,000 gold ounces and approximately 45-million silver ounces in the inferred category."
Total gold: 1.7 mil oz. x 10 = 17 mil silver equiv.
Total silver: 83 mil oz.
Total silver equiv = 100 mil oz.
$157 MIL MC / 100 mil oz. = $1.57/oz.
You get "approx" 3.13 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: At current prices of a 70:1 silver:gold ratio, about 58% of the company is in gold, 41% silver. Gold equiv oz. is about 3 mil oz. total. Cash cost is $85/oz. Life of mine is 7 years. At $385 gold, should produce $900 mil oz. profit over the life of the mine. Not bad for the current $182 MIL MC... even though the "silver in the ground" cost is currently high. Therefore, my valuation method undercounts the gold componant, and undercounts current producers. But that is intended, however, because I believe silver has over 7 times the potential as gold. My comparison method does not say that the companies that cost more can't bring a reasonable profit to the shareholder. My comparison method does tend to say that the profits will be higher for the silver companies that cost less.
There's just not a lot of silver exposure here for the price. But with the high grades, and "gold bonus" the risk is lower, and the profits should be here for those who want more safety in a stock pick.
And they are "rapidly expanding" resources & reserves with round-the-clock drilling of 4 rigs.
MFN / MFL.TO
31 mil shares @ $7.58
$237 mil MC
measured & indicated 2.3 mil oz gold, 116 mil oz. silver inferred 1.1 mil oz. gold, 40 mil oz. silver
Totals: 3.4 mil oz. gold, 156 mil oz. silver.
~ silver conversion = 3.4 x 10 = 34 mil silver equiv + 156 mil oz. silver = 190 mil oz. silver
(only 40% is silver, the rest gold)
$237 mil MC / 190 mil oz. = $1.24/oz.
You get "approx" 3.94 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: None at the moment.
36.6 mil shares
$480 mil MC
San Cristobal (Bolivia) (proven & probably reserves) 454 mil silver
(forecast capital costs for construction to total approximately $435 million)
(Produced zero silver in 2002)
$495.3 mil MC / 454 mil oz = $1.05/oz.
You get "approx" 4.65 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Apex silver has come down significantly from a high of $18/share in early August, and primarily has institutional investors. I wonder if they are paying attention to this report?
Apex is still way too expensive--especially since they are not producing. But they do have "high grades", but a part of the high grade story is that this one has a lot of zinc. That's an added bonus that is not factored in to my method of valuation. Several writers have been saying zinc prices will be heading up soon, so that's another bonus. Plenty of zinc is especially good if zinc is moving up in price. And, they are not mining now, but are waiting for higher silver prices. That's also a plus. The management also seems to understand that silver will move upwards a lot. Another plus. Finally, George Soros, Billionaire, owns a bit of this one, just under 10% I read recently. Another plus, in general, for the silver market if Billionaires are paying attention to it.
37 mil shares
@ share price $1.17 (CAN) x .76 dollar/CAN = $.89 US
$33 mil MC
From the Company's main page at their url:
"As at December 31, 2001, First Silver's mineable reserves were 12 million ounces of silver and inferred resources totaled 30 million ounces of silver. The mine is developing a 1000 plus meter exploration drift to upgrade currently identified inferred resources to mineable ore reserves and to discover new reserves."
12 + 30 = 42 mil oz.
$33 mil MC / 42 mil oz. = $.78/oz.
You get "approx" 6.3 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This is a high grade, producing miner. The high grades are a plus. Some say that a producing miner is also a plus. They are also actively exploring, another plus.
MR.TO / METLF.OB
Ritch Hall, 303-796-0229 ext. 304
42.5 mil shares outstanding (2003 1 Qtr report)
@ share price $2.07 CAN x .76 = $1.57 US
$67 mil MC
"The capital cost to develop the mine is estimated at $28.2 million."
Need to confirm:
METLF Metallica 90 mln ozs Ag --from "Mining Share Focus" Sept. 2003 issued by Gold Newsletter from Blanchard company in Louisiana. The 12 page article is only about Metallica
$67 mil MC / 90 mil oz. silver = $.74/oz.
You get "approx" 6.6 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: None yet.
52 mil shares
$530 mil MC
D/E .08 cash: $12 mil.
10 silver properties (3 in production)
produced 7 mil oz. silver in 2001:
February 2003 presentation reported total reserves including peru stockpiles of 874.3 million ounces
$530 mil MC / 874.3 mil oz. = $.60/oz.
You get "approx" 8.1 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: PAAS is one of the few silver producers on this list. Thus, they are a "silver miner" as their investor relations person will painstakingly point out. The other companies who do not mine silver, but merely own silver properties and drill them, are not "silver miners," nor are they "silver mining companies". They are "silver properties," or "silver opportunities," or "silver speculations," I guess. Ok, but that still does not justify selling silver at firesale prices, in my book.
PAAS recently went into debt in order to ramp up production. I am strongly biased against debt. But it's a convertible debenture, so the debt can be converted into stock. They know and believe higher silver prices are coming, which is great, and their strategy is to be in solid production mode when the higher price hits. In the meantime, though, the extra production will delay the inevitable silver boom, and they are destroying shareholder value. I also advocated buying PAAS. And I recently sold. I sold because I think there are better opportunities out there.
WTZ / WTC.TO
(formerly western copper)
34.3 mil shares (Oct. 2003)
@ share price $3.72 US
$128 mil MC
(not actively mining)
From the "SNC Lavalin Resource Calculation" March, 2003.
Indicated 158.8 mil oz. silver
Inferred 54.6 mil oz. silver
Total 213.4 oz. silver.
Total 1.94 oz. gold x 10 (at 10:1) = 19.4 silver equiv.
The capital cost of the project to get the mine going is estimated to be US $148,628,400
$128 mil MC / 232.8 oz. = $.55/oz.
You get "approx" 8.9 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: (Updated March, 2003.--my prior data must have been older?) Note the capital cost to get the mining started: $148 million dollars.
A friendly email came in and said that WTZ also has the following other metal resources:
3.73 billion pounds of zinc
673 million pounds of copper
1.3 billion pounds of lead
I note that Canadian Zinc has a similarly-sized 3 billion lbs of zinc, more lead, but with a much smaller market cap, and lower start up costs.
MGR.V / MGRSF.PK
18.7 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $1.92 CAN x .76 = $1.46 US
$27.3 mil MC
inferred resource: 45 mil oz. silver + 1 mil oz gold.
1 mil oz. gold = + 10 mil oz. silver equiv
"The estimate does not address significant additional mineralized structures known to be present on the property, or the potential for large strike extensions of known high-grade zones."
$27.3 mil MC / 55 mil oz. = $.49/oz.
You get "approx" 9.9 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Gammon Lake is a large shareholder, 50%. The quote above comes from Gammon's website. http://www.gammonlake.com/corporate_profile.htm
CZN.TO / CZICF.PK
45.1 mil shares (fully diluted) as of Sept., 2003
65 mil shares fully diluted when the Oct 16th Private placement is filled.
@ Share Price $.72 CAN x .76 dollar/CAN = $.54 US
$35.6 mil MC
not mining ($20 mil needed to finish & start the mine) ($100 mil worth of mining infrastructure in place!)
~70 mil oz. (IN ZONE 3 only!! of 12 zones! This company seems to be greatly under-reporting their silver reserves. Their 10 year mine plan consists of zone 3 only, but there are 12 mineralized zones on the property.) Really, perhaps well over 100 mil oz. silver.
$35.6 mil MC / 70 mil oz. = $.51/oz.
You get "approx" 9.68 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: CZN exploded in price this week hitting a high of $.92 CAN/share, gapping up two days in a row. I tried to calculate the potential profit from the press release at http://www.canadianzinc.com/press/docs/PR03.09.pdf
"cash operating margin of $3.30/oz. silver, or $240 million over the life of the mine." "over 18 years" $240 million / 18 years = $13.3 million/year profit. And from http://www.canadianzinc.com/welcome/index.shtml
"Recent work reviewing economics of operation in light of current smelter terms and last years drilling indicates that project, with a cash break-even price of 19 US cents per pound of salable Zinc, would be profitable even at today’s prices (34.5 US cents per pound zinc.) This makes the mine highly profitable at any normal pricing scenario, with production in excess of 125 million pounds of salable Zinc per year.
Using this phrase: "a cash break-even price of 19 US cents per pound of salable Zinc," given the 125 mil lbs./year. $.40/lb current zinc price - $.19/lb. "break even" cost = 21 cents/lb profit. x 125 mil lbs = US$26 million/year profit. So, $13 million to $26 million/year profit/ 65 mil shares = 20-40 cents US profit/share. At a PE ratio of 10, this gives a share price target of $2-4/share, with no further dilution.
"...CDN$20 million to upgrade the mine and mill and a further CDN$21 million to be invested by a road partnership to build an all weather access road to the mine from the Liard highway. Payback of this investment is estimated to be within 2 years in any normal metals pricing scenario, and the mine has a current known life of approximately 18 years."
They might be able to pay back such debt within 2 years, but I would hope they would avoid debt, and raise the capital as the share price begins to approach $2/share or more, and do a final public offering between $2-4/share.
I note several very, very positive things about this company.
1. This was the mining operation set up by the Hunt brothers, the major silver investors in the silver spike to $50/oz. in 1980 who were destroyed by their own debts and margin calls as a result of the COMEX rule changes and silver short sale manipulation. The Hunts spent $50 million building infrastructure to get the mine running. They were 90% complete when bankruptcy hit. The value of those buildings is now $100 million, and the mine only needs about $20 million (CAN) ($15 mil US) to get the mine up and running. That's much cheaper than other cost estimates of other operations.
2. The 70 million oz. of silver estimate is for zone 3 only. But there are 12 zones on the property. The zone 3 estimate is for a 10 year mine plan that involves mining zone 3 at current metals prices. The company can mine, at a profit, at current silver and zinc prices.
3. High Grade ores:
12% zinc/ton; = 240 lbs zinc./ton x 40 cents/lb = $96/ton for the zinc.
10.1% lead/ton = 202 lbs lead/ton x 26 cents/lb = $52.5/ton for the lead.
6 oz. silver/ton x $5.00/oz = $30/ton for the silver.
.4% copper/ton = 8 lbs. copper/ton x .85/lb = $6.8/ton for the copper.
Gross dollar value of minerals in a ton of ore at today's prices = $185/ton
4. My method of valuation: If I counted the zinc as silver, then the price of this company would be something like four times cheaper than it is. If I counted the lead as silver, then this company would be about 4-5 times cheaper.
5. Zinc and base metals prices are moving up strong. Check http://www.metalprices.com/ for updates.
Update: The recent private placement was just expanded to the maximum size allowed by the shareholders, because it was heavily over-subscribed. Sophisticated and Accredited investors want in on this one!
I own shares of CZN.TO
GQM.TO / GQMNF.PK
51.9 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.47 CAN x .76 = $.36 US
$19 mil MC
"This mineable reserve is estimated to contain 1,529,000 oz gold and 24,870,000 oz silver." --from the homepage
gold x 10 = 15.2 mil + 24.8 mil = 40 mil silver equiv.
"The estimated capital cost to the start of production is now U.S.$36 million"
$19 mil MC / 40 mil oz. = .46/oz.
The inverse: you get 10.6 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: My method is severely mis-pricing this company due to the large gold componant. At a ratio of 70:1, the value of the gold and silver are as follows: 1.5 mil gold x $370/oz gold = $555 mil; 24.8 mil oz silver x $4.8/oz silver = $119 mil. Thus, this company, at today's prices is 555/674 (82%) in gold and 119/674 (18%) in silver. With values like that, it comes out relatively expensive as a pure silver play (discounting the gold as I do), but they could earn good profits, given that gold is not 10 times the silver price, but 70 times the silver price. The interesting thing here is that the company has a historic ratio of silver to gold, at 16:1.
Ignore my method of valuation for this one, and consider this company has a "huge gold bonus" that may be worth seriously considering if you are not a hard-core silver bug like I am. If they move to production today, then the price will be based on the profits from the gold, not by the "oz in the ground" method of valuation. I have not done a profit estimate for this one.
40 mil shares (Oct. 2003)
@ share price $6.70
$268 mil MC
debt free, cash: $10 mil
not mining or producing
15 silver properties
measured and indicated resources totaling 300.4 million ounces of silver
plus inferred resources totaling 366 million ounces of silver = 666 mil oz.
2.2 mil oz. gold. Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. silver. (22+666=688 mil oz.)
$268 mil MC / 688 mil oz. = $.39/oz.
You get "approx" 12.6 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Finally, we are getting down to a good price.
SSRI continues to add to reserves, either through exploring, or through acquisitions. This company seems to really understand the silver story, and helped to educate me as an investor, for which I'm thankful.
SSRI has the largest market cap this far down the list, which makes it a more attractive target for people with larger amounts of money to invest.
(50 mil shares authorized)
45 mil shares fully diluted
@ .45/share US
$20.25 mil MC
http://www.cliftonmining.com/wsreview.htm --source of 100 mil oz. resources est.
"A previous geologist has talked about a possible resource of 1 billion oz. of silver, and 5 million oz. of gold."
100 mil oz. silver
+500,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
= 105 mil oz. silver.
up to 1000 mil oz. silver "exploration potential".
Clifton sold up to 50% of the project to Dumont Nickel for $5 million to be paid over time.
50% x 105 = 52.5 million oz.
50% x 1000 = 500 mil oz. "exploration potential"
$20.25 mil MC / 52.5 mil oz. = $.38/oz.
The inverse: you get 12.75 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Note the "exploration potential". This is about 10 times cheaper, like 4 cents/oz, or you "might" get 127 oz. in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
In previous reports, I said, "For more info on what's going on with Clifton, see www.dumontnickel.com" The bad news is that Dumont will own up to 1/2 the silver project. The good news is that the exploration potential of the silver project may be up to 10 times bigger than the 100 mil oz. previously reported in the "100 mil oz. resources est."
Clifton also has a patent on a "super" colloidal silver solution made with 10,000 volts that adds oxygen that gives it more powerful antibacterial properties, and is safer since it uses less silver, which would prevent "blue skin" argyria. Normal colloidal silver that you can make at home with 30 volts works to kill bacteria by disrupting the oxygen metabolism of the cell wall, killing bacteria with oxygen. The market for safe antibiotics is in the multi Billions of dollars.
I own a few shares of CFTN.PK.
604 628 5642
Curt Huber-- Business Development
26.2 mil shares fully diluted (as of Oct 7th., 2003)
+ up to 5.2 mil shares in private placement of Oct 17, 2003
31.4 mil shares to possibly be fully dilluted.
@ share price $1.22 CAN x .76 = $.93 US
$29.11 mil MC
--owns an option to earn 70% interest in "Miera San Jorge's Monte del Favor property in Mexico"
"An historical resource estimate based on underground sampling at Monte Del Favor is reported at 17 million tonnes grading 0.85 g/t gold and 224 g/t silver for a contained 123 million ounces of silver and 460,000 ounces of gold." "While this resource estimate is not fully 43-101 compliant, the Company considers that it provides a conceptual indication of the potential of the property."
460,000 x 10 = 4.6 mil "silver equiv".
127.6 mil oz. x 70% interest = 89.3 mil oz.
$29.11 mil MC / 89.3 mil oz. = $.33/oz.
You get "approx" 15.1 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Prior grades hit 2-5 kilos silver/ ton. (2000-5000g/ton. 70-176 oz. ton) Very high grades. The project was never properly drilled with modern methods.
Admiral Bay acquired this option to own a 70% interest in this silver property in June, 2003, and the acquisition did not impact their stock price at that time at all. Previously, they were a gas company, and they still have this other gas project, which may be more than half the intrinsic value of the company according to Curt Huber, who understands the silver story as expressed by Ted Butler and David Morgan. My valuation method, obviously, does not give any value for their gas project, which therefore needs to be factored in as a "bonus".
They are actively digging now, building a road and uncovering mineralization areas, and tracing surface veins. They will be drilling before the end of October, spending $500,000 before the end of 2003. They have $2 million cash in the till.
TM.V / TUMIF.PK
10.5 fully dilutted shares
@ share price .94 CAN (x .76) = $.71 US
$7.5 mil MC
20 mil oz resource up to 50 million oz. silver potential but needs to be explored and drilled.
500,000 gold resource x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
$7.5 mil MC / 25 mil oz. = .28 ***I'm using this number***
$7.5 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = .14
You get "approx" 16.4 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: I'll consider the 50 mil oz as "exploration potential".
56,422,426 shares outstanding
@ .27 share x .76 = $.21
$11.6 mil MC
*** Dumont still needs to raise and pay several million to clifton for 50% of the project.
$11.6 mil MC / 52.5 million oz. = $.22/oz.
You get "approx" 22 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Clifton's JV partner.
SVL.V / STVZF.PK
17.8 mil shares
@ share price $1.40 CAN x (.76 US/CAN) = $1.06 US
$18.9 mil MC
Indicated resources of silver 30 mil oz. (SOZ.)
Projects in Honduras.
*** discovery adds silver*** (perhaps 40-100 mil oz.) see below
new silver totals are projected to be: 70 - 130 mil oz.
$18.9 mil MC / 70 = $.27/oz.
You get "approx" 18.1 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Now, whenever there is a range like that, it means those are ounces they need to drill to prove up. And drilling costs money, but does not generate revenue like mining. They are "exploring" those. They are not like "inferred resources" ounces, which, although the least certain category, are more certain than this range number.
There was a discovery that the company found and wrote and told me about, that they are now working on. Plus, their reserves are potentially "open pitable" which reduces costs.
Every silver company out there always has "more silver property" that potentially has "more silver in the ground" that they "need to explore". So every company has a "silver bonus" that's not included in their oz. reserve figures. But exploration is risky, and costly. It's why metals are precious.
MAI.V / MNEAF.OB
IR Tel: (604) 689-7017
37 mil shares outstanding on February 5, 2003
@ share $.36 CAN x .76 = $.27 US
$10.1 mil MC
company says "55 mil silver equiv. oz." --Note, I do NOT know what that means! But I do know they are counting gold, or copper, or something, as silver. How much is gold or copper, I don't know. But I do know this: Gold is NOT silver. And I calculate gold as silver, differently than others. I use 10:1. They might use 70:1. So be careful, and do more research. Nevertheless, I'll use the number to see if it is in the ballpark. (Got to start somewhere)
$10.1 mil MC / 55 mil = $.18/oz.
You get "approx" 1.88 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
The inverse: you get 26.7 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: I don't know how much of the 55 mil oz. is gold, or copper or other minerals, which I value differently. So, I'm really not sure how this company would be priced otherwise.
I don't own MAI.V
77.1 M shares
@ Share price .12 CAN (x.76 US/CAN) = .0912
$7 mil MC
Reserves and Resources: 41 mil oz. silver
Gold equivalents 712,000 x 10 (from the 70:1 silver/gold ratio) = 7.1 mil silver equiv...
(new gold to silver value remember, see the top of this article) 41 mil oz. + 7 mil oz. = 48 mil oz.
$7 mil MC / 48 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.15/oz.
You get "approx" 1.88 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
The inverse: you get 34 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Half the current value is in gold, not silver. If the gold was counted as 70:1, instead of 10:1, the "price" would be about 57% of the price now, or 43% off.
I don't own ECU.
ASM.V / ASGMF.PK
6.9 mil shares
@ share price $1.40 CAN x .76 = $1.06 US
$7.3 mil MC
from: http://www.avino.com/other/goldstock100197.html --in 1997
"How Much Silver Does Avino Have?"
"Operations at Avino's silver mine in Mexico are both open-pit and underground. I examined the reserves and interpolated the tonnage into silver ounces as follows: 28-million ounces proven; 50-million ounces probable and 27 million ounces possible." (Not all are 43101 compliant reserves & resources.--that is an old, third party report.)
--focus is on being silver company. A plus.
= 28 + 50 + 27 = 105
Avino owns 49% of that, or 51.5 mil oz.
-"not considered reserves under the new Canadian National Policy 43-101"
$7.3 mil MC / 51.5 mil oz. = $.14/oz.
You get "approx" 34.5 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional notes: Mexican mining law once stated that a controlling interest had to be owned by Mexicans, which explains why they only have a 49% interest. That they don't have a controlling interest is a minus. This law has changed. The mine was operational until the mine went into temporary closure in November 2001. So there is in place an existing mine, with working infrastructure, which is a bonus. There is a need for drilling in order to test the potential that was stated in the feasibility study.
I own shares of ASM.V.
FAN.TO / FRLLF.PK
43.8 mil shares fully diluted (At Aug 31, 2003)
@ share price .44/share CAN x .76 = $.33 US
$14.6 mil MC
Exploration and development in Mexico.
See also hdgold.com (Hunter-Dickinson)
On 4 sulphide deposits out of 16, 29 mil ton grading 89 grams silver/t and 1.57 g gold/t.
Conversion: 89 grams x .0353 oz/gram = 3.14 oz.
RE: those 29 mil tons, they "anticipate increasing resources to 50 mil tonne range..."
3.14 oz. x 29 mil tons = 91 mil oz. silver
1.6 mil oz. gold x 10 = 16 mil oz "silver equiv".
Total: 107 mil oz. silver equiv.
$14.6 mil MC / 107 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.14/oz.
You get "approx" 36 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This stock was a $3/share stock in 1998, ten times the price today. Look at the long term chart. Talk about "Buying low!"
Nothing done or drilled on the property since 1999. Why not? Because of low zinc prices: 46% of the price of the metals was in the zinc before prices crashed... (This one reminds me of Canadian Zinc. They think they are a zinc company.) The largest componant today is gold, which was surprising to Eric, the IR guy I spoke with. About 1/3 is in silver now.
At today's low metals prices:
2% x 2000 lb = 40 lbs zinc x $.37/lb = $14 for the zinc (.37 to .50 lb zinc.)
3.14 oz. x $5.15 = $16 for the silver.
.055421 oz. x $385/oz. = $21 for the gold
(Assuming 100% metals recovery--which is not likely to be the case. It may range from 60% to a higher percentage, depending on extraction methods used and the particular mineral targeted, which constantly change with technology advancements, and price changes in the metals. By the time a mine like this gets running, perhaps in 5 years or so, things may change to allow even greater metal recovery.)
Get this: By law (an insane law meant to protect investors, but actually hurts investors in my opinion) a company cannot do calculations such as these above to show the potential profitability of mining the minerals. Why not? Because when doing a feasibility study, they have to "be responsible" and use "average" prices of the metals and they are REQUIRED BY LAW TO ASSUME THAT PRICES OF THE METALS WILL ALSO GO DOWN!!! Isn't that insane? This means that the law creates a virtual gag-order on companies from saying and defining how great their companies are to invest in, if you believe that inflation will hit and that precious metals prices will go up! The company can say "Yes, our company represents a great inflation hedge," but they cannot show you the math to define what "great" may mean given various higher metals prices!!!
So, no wonder information on mining companies, and potential at different metals prices is so difficult to find. It's like pulling teeth to get the answer to the question: "What percentage of the profits of the mine will come from zinc, and what percent come from silver &/or copper or gold, etc." It's almost illegal for them to give such information to you based on current prices or possible higher prices! But it's not illegal for me to do math and show you, nor is it illegal for you to calculate whatever you want in your spare time.
Last week, I said I thought they might have 4 times the potential of their 107 mil oz. silver (out of 29 mil tonnes) because they had only explored 4 deposits out of 16. But their other 12 potential deposits are "little bumps" on the surface, and they do not know how large they compare to the others. So, regarding this "exploration potential," the company has a conservative estimate that they "anticipate increasing resources to 50 mil tonne range..." as I did write last week. This is an increase of a factor of 1.7, not by a factor of 4. Speaking with the company about this issue, they think reserves could be 50 mil tonnes OR MORE, but that they really don't know, and want to issue conservative estimates.
I own shares of FAN.TO.
7 mil shares
@ share price $5.25
$36.75 mil MC
~185 mil oz. reserves + resource, Sunshine alone
Quote from: http://www.sterlingmining.com/jun112003.html
"The prior operator last estimated the mine reserves at 26.75 million ounces of silver, 10.36 million pounds of copper and 7.05 million pounds of lead (or approximately 28.85 million ounces of silver-equivalent), as well as an additional resource of 159.66 million ounces of silver. "
~100 mil oz. other properties: the 10 sq. miles around the 1/2 sq mile of the Sunshine (rough guess--needs to be explored) *** I use this number*** even though--these extra 100 mil oz. are in the "explorer" category. They need to be drilled and found, although I've heard of estimates as high as 400 mil oz. total for SRLM.PK
$36.75 mil MC / 285 mil oz. = $.13/oz.
You get "approx" 38 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Sterling Mining acquired the Sunshine mine. Sunshine was one of the big three: Hecla, Couer, & Sunshine. Sunshine went bankrupt. Sterling got the property a few months ago cheap, because they were quick & willing to pay cash. Other buyers wanted to do a full study before making an offer. This company's share price went ballistic as a result. But the company is still way undervalued. Just do the math, people. I own a substantial share of SRLM.PK There were a few great articles written lately for SRLM. See the company web site, above. The best factors, I feel, are as follows:
1. The Sunshine mine is an existing mine that was mining at a profit. The company went bankrupt, not the mine. So there will be no great capital costs for start up, only minimal costs.
2. The Sunshine sits on 1/2 sq. mile, and was never fully explored. Sterling Mining owns 10 square miles of property surrounding the Sunshine, right in the heart of silver country, the location of CDE and HL, the other two big companies at the top of this list.
3. The management of Sunshine understands the silver story. They are on a mission to acquire distressed silver properties at today's cheap prices.
4. The additional share offering, if it closes, could mean 8.5 mil shares, which would mean a market cap of $37 mil. That's a minus. $37 / 260 = .14/oz., which is a little higher price. Beware of additional share issues causing shareholder dilution.
Do not confuse SRLM with SSMR. SSMR is the Sunshine mining company, which went bankrupt. SRLM acquired the Sunshine mine. If you want to buy the Sunshine mine, you buy Sterling Mining Company, SRLM.
I own shares of SRLM.PK
7.5 mil shares
@ share price $3.65
$27.4 mil MC
261 mil oz. silver resources. Previous drilling spent over $100 million drilling the property.
$27.4 mil MC / 261 mil = $.104/oz.
You get "approx" 1.88 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
The inverse: you get 47 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Mines Management owned 10% of the rights to their property in Montana. The other 90% owner, Noranda, simply gave up on the property and walked away from their mining claim due to "perpetually" low silver prices and political concerns. That explains the rocketing share price. So, the MNMM group got 90% of the rest of the property FOR FREE!--the value of which, and the nature of this transaction has just barely begun to be understood by the market, given the low relative price.
Their property also has about 1/2 the value (at current prices) in copper, 2 Billion pounds of copper, and 261 mil oz. of silver. Do the math, people. 261 mil oz. silver x $5.25/oz. = $1.3 Billion. 2 Billion lbs copper x .85/lb. = $1.7 Billion. Amazing assets in the ground for such a small market cap. Three Billion in asset value / 30 million in market cap, means you are paying 1/100th the price. Surely, the profit will be greater than 1% of the asset value, over the life of the mine.
They do not have an active working mine--Which is a minus. They will need to raise capital to get a mine going. Noranda had several estimates for the cost to build a mine and mill, around $250 million. But it could be more or less depending on how ambitious or economic they decide to do things.
Regarding environmental concerns: Noranda had a fully approved Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that led to successful project permitting, so environmental concerns were not a factor in their departure in 2002.
I own shares of MNMM.OB
Explorers deserve their own category, since they cannot be valued by my method of looking at reserves and resources of ounces of silver in the ground. We do not know how many oz. they might have. They are exploring for that. But, given their market caps, and given what I feel is a good price for a silver company of about 30 cents per oz. in the ground, I can calculate how much silver they had better find, in order to justify their current stock price. This valuation method might also help those who have a better feel for how much silver they might find than I do, to value the company. This list, although at the bottom, in no way indicates that these companies are more highly valued than companies listed above. It is also difficult to categorize a company as an explorer, since all silver companies always hold more silver properties that need to be explored. Higher grade deposits, obviously, could be valued significantly more than my arbitrary number of 30 cents/oz.
(The order is by largest market cap first, not by "comparative value".)
IMR.V / IMXPF.OB
43.4 mil Fully Diluted shares
@ share price $1.71 CAN x .76 = $1.30 U.S
$56.4 mil MC / (.30/oz. "Arbitrary Jason Hommel good value" factor) = 188 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: IMR.V has come down significantly in value in the last month, from a high of $2.54. I suspect this series of articles may have had something to do with that, as several people wrote and told me they were selling IMR. I guess a lot of people bought IMR when it was the "latest exciting silver discovery", and pushed up the value too much, before doing their own calculations.
Some may say that my valuation method is unfair. I agree, it may be unfair. There are a lot of factors to consider, besides the number of "oz. in the ground" such as high grades, which IMR has discovered and is exploring to prove up.
If my article unfairly profiles a stock, and you know better, then this should open up an advantage for you to go ahead and buy the stock, knowing that in the end, profits will determine the ultimate value at the end of the day.
All I have done, is show the size of the market cap, and show the implications of "comparative value".
This explorer has found bonanza high grades, which many consider to be an outstanding benefit, and they are willing to pay much more for such high grades, which have a much higher chance of being able to be mined at a significant profit in today's environment of low silver prices. Some people say the high grades are far more important than how many ounces are found, and they more highly value this factor than my arbitrary "good value" number of 30 cents/oz. In other words, they might be willing to pay up to 50 cents or a dollar for such high grades, and they may be worth that, and they may be right.
(See also SPM.V below, they are next to IMR.V, and at 1/10th the price.)
376 mil shares
@ share price $ .12
$45 mil MC
"Total Inferred Resource is 34.5 million ozs silver but the district is unexplored for epithermal silver and exploration to date suggests a district potential of 50 to 100m ozs Ag or perhaps much more." --"Macmin is a silver focussed company" The Texas Silver Project has in-ground resources of 44.5Moz of silver equivalent
$45 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = $.82oz.
$45 mil MC / 100 mil oz. = $.41oz.
$45 mil MC / (.30/oz. "Arbitrary Jason Hommel good value" factor) = 150 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: Several people wrote to me about macmin this week, and gave me the following url:
CDU.V / CUEAF.PK
28.3 million shares fully diluted (assuming all the options and warrants are exercised, which are NOT all "in the money")
@ share price 1.70 CAN (x .76 US/CAN) = 1.29
$36.6 mil MC
Proven & Probable: NONE! (explorer).
Speculated reserves ~ 100 - 250 or more mil oz.?????
$36.6 mil MC / (.30/oz. "Arbitrary Jason Hommel good value" factor) = 121 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: *** I wrote an article on Cardero in January, 2003.
Cardero has three properties in Argentina; actively working on two: Chingolo and Providencia. Chingolo was just measured as twice as large as previously thought. They are trying to prove up these properties.
This one also has potentially high grades in several very large conglomerate deposits that can be mined at a profit today. Their property at Providencia was an active mine, but only a few tons/day. But they hope to make a large open pit project out of the main deposit, processing perhaps a few thousand tons/day.
High grades are very important in today's environment, especially if you can buy them cheaply.
They are also acquiring more silver properties, which is another bonus. This is an aggressive silver company. More properties help to alleviate the risk of an explorer.
I own shares of CDU.V
28 mil fully diluted shares
@ share price $1.65 CAN x .76 = $1.25 US
$35 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 117 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
--near Quaterra and Western Silver.
TVI.TO / TVIPF.PK
Dianne (IR) Phone: (403) 265-4356
257.1 Million shares fully diluted
+87 mil shares & warrants as of Oct. 7th, 2003
= 344 mil fully diluted
@ share price $.095 CAN x .76 = $.0722 US
$24.8 mil MC
From p. 1 of 2nd qtr 2003 report: "The company has a policy of not hedging or entering into forward sales contracts."
Cash flow positive. !!!
14 projects in the Philippines.
Producing a dore bar of 96% silver and 4% gold from Canatuan project with the following:
827,000 tonnes 3.98 (au)g/t 141.1(Ag)g/t = .14oz/t gold + 4.98oz./t silver
1,497,000 tonnes 1.26 (au)g/t 58.4(Ag)g/t = .044oz/t gold + 2 oz./t silver
= 115,780 oz. gold + 4,120,000 oz. silver
= 66,000 oz. gold + 3,000,000 oz. silver
Total silver = 7.1 mil oz silver
Total gold = 182,000 oz. gold x 10 (@10:1) = 1.8 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv (Canatuan) = 8.9 mil oz.
+ 2.5 % royalty on "Rapu Rapu" that should be worth about $1 million per year starting within 9-12 months. (a cash source for an explorer is a big plus)
+ they own a drilling company with 20 rigs.
+ they have a "foot in the door" in China.
+ many other promising exploration properties in the Asian Pacific.
$24.8 mil MC (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 83 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: This company has many properties in the Philippines. This one looks interesting, but there is just too much unknown for me at this point for me to be able to quantify. So, they are an explorer, listed in terms of market cap size.
EPZ.V / ESPZF.PK
Esperanza Silver Corp
fully diluted 20 million shares
@ share price = $1.02 US
$20.4 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 68 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap. "Esperanza Silver Corporation is solely dedicated to the identification, acquisition and exploration of new silver projects."
Additional notes: Management involved with SSRI
IAU.V / ITDXF.PK
30 mil shares
@ share price $.62 CAN x .76 = .47 US
$14.1 mil MC
Company's exposure is about half to gold, half to silver in several projects.
Joint Venture with BHP Billiton focused on "Cannington" style silver deposits using proprietary BHP Billiton data.
(all figures are "exploration potential")
El Salvador - 38.5 mil oz.
Argentina - 6 mil oz.
Total: 44 mil oz. silver
Total gold: ~690k oz. x 10 (10:1 ratio) = ~ 6.9 mil oz. "silver equiv"
Total: 53 mil oz. "silver equiv". (exploration potential or indicated or inferred, not reserves)
$14.1 mil MC / 53 mil oz. = $.26/oz.
Hopefully, you get 19 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Their "exploration potential" lies within the "arbitrary good value" range. This explorer/developer tends to focus on good grade, mineable deposits, and form partnerships with other companies to access great information, and expects to produce silver & gold within 2 years, by 2005. They also took the time to contact me, after having seen this silver report.
Since this company is about half gold and half silver, the 10:1 ratio really cuts down the "silver equiv" numbers, so keep in mind the "gold bonus" factor here. But it's like that with a lot of the companies on this list, so keep that in mind, and do your own math if you want to use the 70:1 ratio.
NPG.V / NVPGF.PK
33 mil shares fully diluted
+ 1 mil shares options for executives
= 34 mil shares as of October, 2003
@ share price .68 CAN x .76 = .52 US
$17.6 mil MC
Amador Canyon Silver Project: 50-250 mil tonnes
silver grades average 4 oz. sil/ ton in the deposit
= 200 to 1000 mil oz. silver????? --very speculative at this point. Drilling needs to be done, scheduled $13.2 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 44 mil oz. is all they need to find to justify the current Market cap.
$17.6 mil MC / 200 mil oz. = $.087/oz.
$17.6 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. = $.018/oz.
The inverse: you "might" get 56 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
The inverse: you "might" get 279 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Explorer in Nevada. They do not really know how much silver they might they have in the Amador Canyon project. Exploration is risky. They are doing drilling this fall, 2003, as they just did a $2.5 million private placement. The Chariman, David Hottman, says that 90% of the value of the company is in gold, NOT silver, and yet, I'm buying this company for the silver value only, and as if the gold componant was worth nothing. (The gold projects are a free bonus, in my book, and help to alleviate the risk of this explorer.) He has 10 gold projects, and one silver-but it may be big. On the website, for David Hottman's bio, it says he was a founding member of Eldorado gold. "During his tenure, Eldorado's market capitalization grew from Cdn $7 million in 1992 to a peak of Cdn $781 million in 1996." Please note, exploration is risky, and costly.
Two weeks ago, the company proposed stock options for "for directors, officers, consultants and employees". If they now believe the share price to be headed much higher, they would want to lock in options at this low price.
Investors have to be aware of this kind of share dilution. This one is 1 million shares. Thus, it increases the market cap, increasing the "cost", and reducing percentage ownership for existing shareholders. But this still looks like a good deal.
I own shares of NPG.V
15.7 mil shares
@share price $.48 US
$7.5 mil MC / .30 "good value factor" = 25 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC) is engaged in exploring for and developing gold, silver and base metal ore reserves in the Coeur d'Alene Mining District of northern Idaho also known as the Silver Valley - one of the world's richest silver districts.
MMG.V / MMEEF.PK
25.6 mil shares outstanding (3q 2003 report June, 2003)
@ share price $.47 CAN x .76 = $.36
$9 mil MC /.30 "good value factor" = 30 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price. Explorer
2002 annual report:
48 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.17 CAN x .76 = $.13 US
$6.2 mil MC
indicated = 63,400 t x 2738 g/t x .0353oz./g = 6.1 mil oz. silver
inferred = 2100 t x 1,433 g/t x .0353oz./g = .1 mil oz. silver
"gross in-situ value of mineralization is $31.4 million."
$6.2 mil MC / 6.2 mil oz. = $1.00/oz.
Additional comments: (Expensive, unless they find more.) "Excellon ...is exploring and developing".... "a Bonanza grade Silver deposit in Mexico."
GNG.V / GGTHF.PK
+ 4 mil warrants
= 32.4 mil shares fully diluted
@ share price .25 x .76 = $.19
$6.16 mil market cap /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 20.5 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
I own shares of GNG.V
Silver Explorer in Mexico in the the Sierra Madre mountains: Uruachic.
Doing active drilling on their silver property, Las Bolas, "in a month" (as of Oct. 7th). They hope to take collection of old silver mines and make them open pittable. They have some very high grades from chip samples from the tunnels, ranging from 100g to 500g all the way up to around and over 1000g/ton of silver.
The largest placee in the recent private placement was Sprott Asset Management, run by John Embry.
"A major US television channel is currently producing a documentary on gold exploration, which will feature the Company at work on its Las Bolas property in the Sierra Madre mountains of northwestern Mexico. A film crew from the production company will be on site in October. The Company is pleased with this development, which will provide continent wide exposure at essentially no cost."
(Quite frankly, articles like this one on the internet may give companies better exposure than a TV show, because this is targeted towards investors. Then again, I might be wrong. We'll see.)
7.4 mil shares issued
@ share price .91 CAN x .76 = $.69 US
$5.11 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 17 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Explorer: property next to IMR.V in Argentina, another explorer
12 mil shares
$3.12 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 10.4 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
In Cour d'Alene, near CDE, HL, & SRLM.PK
14.3 mil fully diluted (July 15, 2003)
@ share price .14 CAN x .76 = .11
$1.52 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 5 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Explorer. Wins the award for tiniest market cap on the list.
$14.5 mil MC
"Itronics Inc. is the world's only fully integrated photochemical recycling company. It provides photochemical waste collection services, recovers and refines silver from the photochemicals,"
Additional comments: Itronics is not an explorer, and not a miner, and has no reserves. As such, it is extremely difficult for me to value this compared to other silver stocks.
Final Category: Silver stocks FOR YOU and I TO RESEARCH further: I strongly recommend you try to "get ahead of me," and research these stocks to see if I left out any great values. I probably did. I simply did not have time, or could not yet find information (without using the telephone) on all the three key figures needed to get the "price per oz." in the ground. You need: number of shares fully diluted x share price to get the market cap. Then, you need an estimate of the oz. in the ground. Usually, I've been finding the oz. in the ground resource estimates right off the company webpages, and I get the number of shares by looking for it burried in the financial statements like the quarterlies or annual reports, which are also usually right on the company webpages. Have fun this week!
HDA.V HULDRA SILVER
.18/share x .74 =
only 7 million shares out
$.9 mil MC
Phone: 1(604) 261-6040
QUATERRA RES (CDNX:QTA.V)
Jay Oness, 604-681-9059 or Toll Free: 1-888-456-1112
36.4 mil shares Sept 2002
+ 3 mil undefined "units" Oct 2003
4 properties in North America
Vista Gold Corp (Yukon Territory) (VGZ)
"Vista owns 250 mln Ag drilled deposit underneath their exiting Hycroft mine in Nevada, Vista does not want to use their gold (15 mln ozs AU) and silver at low prices."
Eurozinc Mining Corp (EZM.V)
70 mil shares
@ share price .22 CAN x .76 = $.165
$11.55 mil MC
MorNorth Mortgage Holdings Inc (UNCN.OB)
--lease of property will expire June 1 2004
49 mil oz.
Metalline Mining Co (MMGG.OB)
silver and zinc
insiders buying on 9-10-2003
Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd (MTB.V)
TEL: (250) 636-9283
@ share price .30
high grade samples: 3640 g/T Ag to 45.5 g/T Ag
KIMBER RSCS INC (CDNX:KBR.V)
Mascot Silver Lead Mines (MSLM.PK)
Malachite Resources NL (MAR.AX)
ROSS RIVER MINL (CDNX:RRM.V)
Silver Buckle Mines Inc (SBUM.PK)
Fischer-Watt Gold Co Inc (FWGO.OB)
Metropolitain Mines Ltd (MEMLA.PK)
New this week that I also still have yet to research:
Manhattan Minerals Corp (MAN.TO)
Expatriate Resources Ltd (EXR-V)
Andean American Mining, Symbol: AAG.
Holmer Gold Mines Ltd (Toronto Venture Exchange) V HGM.
Reports such as this usually cost an annual subscription such as $100 - $300 or so.
Articles like this one, that present opportunities as good as these, can tend to move the markets in these stocks. So, be careful when buying. If you place any market orders at the open for any of these small stocks, you might end up buying at prices that are significantly higher than you intended. Limit orders might be better, but then, you run the risk of your order not being filled if the stock price exceeds your limit. And bid / ask spreads such as 15% on small cap silver stocks are not unusual. Markets can especially be moved given the wide readership of gold-eagle.com. I've seen markets moved even by small private newsletters such as lemetropolecafe.com and silver-investor.com (I subscribe to both), which reach much smaller numbers of people than gold-eagle.com. Some of these stocks can move up 15%, 30%, 50% or even over 100% in a single day. Thus, valuations can change very, very quickly. So, be careful, and re-check the numbers if the prices move up. Do your own math.
Also note, the majority of these companies have an emphasis on silver only. Most silver is produced as a by product of other mining, like lead or zinc or copper mining. Those companies that primarily produce other minerals are not featured in this report. This also helps to explain and prove, that silver is undervalued. If silver miners cannot mine silver profitably, and this report shows that to be true, then something is wrong with the silver price. It must go higher.
More Information Sources on Silver:
"Silver Bulls" by Paul Sarnoff. Details the 1980 rise and fall of silver. Written in 1980.
"Silver Bonanza" by James Blanchard. 1993. Outlines the case for silver.
"The definitive guide to North American mining stocks" by Doug Casey & Jerry Pogue available thru alibris.com & amazon.com. Jerry Pogue is a director of Mines Management. Doug Casey has been #1 booster of mining shares since 1978 publication of "Crisis Investing " and 1982 "Strategic Investing" and 1992 "Crisis Investing for 90's"
The three best sources for commentaries on the silver market that I've found on the internet today are David Morgan, Ted Butler, and a report by "Kazvestor". I subscribe to, and read, David Morgan's newsletter, and I recommend it.
Some of the reserves and resources listed for the above companies, especially the juniors, may have been drilled out and calculated based on old regulations, before the new 43101 compliance rules were put into effect. (Not all are 43101 compliant reserves & resources.)
For information from the SEC on how to protect yourself from a "pump & dump" scam, see the following:
Pump and Dump Schemes
Pump&Dump.con: Tips for Avoiding Stock Scams on the Internet
Microcap Stock: A Guide for Investors
Internet Fraud: How to Avoid Internet Investment Scams
Tips for Checking Out Newsletters
www.goldismoney.com --Still not up yet.
Final Disclaimer: I have not received any compensation from any company for writing up my weekly report on "Silver Stocks--Comparative Valuations," neither cash, nor shares, nor options, nor any other sort of compensation. Within the report, I declared my ownership of each company that I own. To repeat, I own shares of the following 9 silver stocks: CZN.TO, MNMM.OB, SRLM.PK, FAN.TO, CDU.V, NPG.V, ASM.V, CFTN.PK, and GNG.V. I am not short any companies, and I hold no short positions, no puts, no calls. I reserve the right to buy or sell any stock at any time. GoldSeek.com did not receive compensation for this report and owns a position in Vista Gold at the time of this publication.
-- Posted Sunday, 19 October 2003 | Digg This Article