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-- Posted Sunday, 2 November 2003 | Digg This Article
What's new? I've written new commentary on the importance of owning real physical silver, and I discuss various kinds of physical silver. There is no major new research on any companies this week, mostly just the price changes. Quite a few of the silver stock companies on my list (at least 5-7) that I have not had time to research have really moved up strongly this week or two. Looks like many people are researching hard ahead of me and buying. My sloth may have cost me some opportunities this week. There are 50 silver stocks profiled in this report, and there are symbols to research on 17 more, for a total of 67 companies.
Price of silver is $5.05 as of Friday, 2:30PM West Coast US, which was used to calculate the following figures. The CAN $ / US $ conversion factor is .7571. I will use .76 for ease.
Stock Symbol Approx. number of silver oz. "in ground"** for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
HL .45 --current producer
CDE 1.6 --current producer
IPOAF.PK 1.8 --current producer
GRS / GAM.TO 2.1 --current producer
MFN / MFL.TO 3.7
SIL 4.7
* CZN.TO / CZICF.PK 5.1 --high grades can mine at profit, low start up costs
FSR.TO 6.4 --current producer
* CFTN.PK 7.45 -- 75 (75 is "exploration potential")
MGR.V / MGRSF.PK 7.84
PAAS 8.0 --current producer
GQM.TO / GQMNF.PK 8.66
MR.TO / MRB 9.1
WTZ / WTC.TO 9.71
TM.V / TUMIF.PK 10.52 -- 21 (21 is "exploration potential")
KBR.V 11.35
SSRI 12.27 --multi-property company, understands silver story
MAN.TO MMALF.PK 12.87
* ASM.V / ASGMF.PK 13.3 --owns 49% of the Avino mine. + 4 other silver props.
ADB.V 13.8 --actively expanding resources. (Huge gas bonus)
DNI.V 15 --active on Clifton's property.
* FAN.TO / FRLLF.PK 15 --low grades, may have 1.7 to 4 times more silver.
* SRLM.PK 17.8 --28 (28 is explor. potential near the Sunshine)
SVL.V / STVZF.PK 19.4 -- 35 (35 is explor. potential) --growing resources.
MAI.V / MNEAF.OB 20.8 --silver "equiv." real silver quantity I don't know.
* EXR.V / EXPTF.PK 25 --significant zinc bonus 60% zinc, 25% silver
ECU.V 30.6 --gold bonus;
* MNMM.OB 35 --copper bonus, start up cost may need ~$250 million
HDA.V 54 --very tiny, no debt.
UNCN.OB 133 --lease expiring; seems very risky
* = I own shares
Explorers (by market cap):
IMR.V / IMXPF.OB
VGZ VGZ.TO 27 --significant gold bonus (almost half of "silver equiv" are gold)
MCAJF.PK 10.2
* CDU.V / CUEAF.PK 26
MAG.V
TVI.TO / TVIPF.PK --current producer of a dore silver bar 96% silver, 4% gold
* NPG.V / NVPGF.PK 42-207 "exploration potential"
MMGG.OB
EPZ.V / ESPZF.PK
IAU.V / ITDXF.PK 18
HGM.V
NJMC.OB
MMG.V / MMEEF.PK
QTA.V QURAF.PK
SPM.V
EXN.V 5.22
* GNG.V
SHSH.PK
ROK.V
ITRO.OB
* = I own shares
** = "in ground" includes all "oz. in the ground" as equal, but they are NOT EQUAL. Some are more certain and others are more speculative. They range from most certain to least certain such as: proven reserves, probable reserves, indicated resources, inferred resources. Some numbers are even "exploration potential" especially if there is a range. Numbers are not all 43-101 compliant.
The single number next to each stock symbol above represents the approximate number of ounces of silver in the ground you are buying title to when you invest the equivalent of one ounce of silver by buying shares in the company at current prices. (It does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver.)
To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below. Then, you will go directly to the summary about that company. Since this is a long document, that is much easier than trying to scroll down.
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WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):
I had to significantly change a lot of the valuations on the first section of the list this week, greatly moving around the order of many companies on the list. Company valuations changed a lot, with changing stock prices and changing values of market caps which especially change due to private placement announcements.
A few of the zinc companies move up strongly this week as well: CZN.TO, III.TO and Eurozinc moved up strong, but oddly, not Apex or EXR.V.
On November 23-24 I will be at the San Francisco Gold & Precious Metals conference, which is enjoying record-breaking pre-registration.
For details on the show, (free, but you need to register) www.iiconf.com/
I am building a list of "sophisticated" and/or "accredited" investors who qualify and desire to participate in private placements. A private placement is when a company issues stock and warrants (which are like options) to raise money for things like drilling or acquiring more properties. To qualify, the investor usually has to have at least $250,000 annual income, or a net worth of $1,000,000, (not including home residence). If I find any private placement opportunities, I might be able to introduce you to the company, and I might get a referral or finder's fee. Email me at jasonhommel@yahoo.com and tell me if you are a "sophisticated" investor if this kind of opportunity interests you. This is not a solicitation for any particular stock or company, and I'm not brokering any securities or selling any stock.
I will issue a strong cautionary note here regarding following my investment picks. Many of the silver stocks on my favored list depend on a strongly rising silver price, which I expect is inevitable due to many factors. The biggest, I see, is monetary demand, which does not exist very strongly now, but I feel must exist in the future. The second biggest factor for silver's rise is the shortage. The third biggest factor I feel is the short selling on the COMEX. If I'm wrong about silver moving up in value, these silver stocks will be dogs. If I'm right about silver moving significantly higher in value, I think these stocks will be the investment of a lifetime.
Next issue! Silver stock investors must protect their investments by selling silver stocks that go up, and buying physical silver with some of the gains. If silver stocks get overvalued, like Hecla mining, you would be better off owning real silver. I strongly recommend that you put and keep at least 20% of your portfolio in physical silver.
What is the point of owning physical silver if certain silver stocks will appreciate and go up in value much faster than silver? The point is that silver is liquid. Silver is payment in full. Silver is not a promise. There are many inherent risks in owning stocks. Stocks can go bankrupt by debt or lack of financing or bad management. And if they do get financing, your share of the company is reduced as they issue more shares. The value of silver can never go to zero.
With the liquidity of owning real silver, you can be more brave and balance out the remainder of your portfolio with the less liquid smaller market cap silver stocks with greater potential. I strongly recommend holding 20% of your portfolio in physical silver, and increasing that percentage as the silver stocks move up, so you are continually or periodically selling some silver stocks for physical silver. This is called "profit taking".
Never borrow money to buy silver stocks. The price swings can bankrupt you. Avoid debt, and you will avoid the problems that destroyed the Hunt Brothers.
I don't think the lack of liquidity of the silver stocks is too much of a concern at the moment. I don't think there will be any need to sell them any time soon. There is not a need to "exit" owning silver stocks. There is a need to "exit" owning bonds and dollars, and where will they go to exit that? They will invest here, in gold and silver, and in the gold and silver stocks.
Why is the liquidity of physical silver important? Various reasons. It is "out of the system". It appreciates tax-free. They can't know or track when you bought it, so they can't levy capital gains on it when you sell it. You can transfer silver across generations, tax free, again because it is out of the system.
With physical silver in hand, when paper cash goes up in smoke, you will have money for food and fuel and life's necessities. Don't store your silver in the bank. Get a home safe, and a gun, and maybe dogs, or other home security and privacy measures.
Silver stock owners may need physical silver for the final round of private placements to move a silver property holding company into production--after paper money exists no more. If the current silver stock investors have no silver (no money) then they are at the mercy of the owners of physical silver (and gold) that may be the only money left after a monetary collapse.
I strongly suspect that a silver investor will not part with his silver to invest in a high priced asset like an over valued silver explorer to help with the final round of financing. A silver investor today is a seeker of low value. Therefore, if you are invested strictly in silver stocks, the day might come when your silver stock is over valued, but nobody is able to finance the final stage of development because there is no money (after a dollar crash) and no silver investor ready to part with his silver. So, keep that in mind, and buy physical silver along with the low priced silver stocks today.
What are the benefits and drawbacks of various kinds of physical metal?
1000 oz. silver COMEX bar: The benefit is it is a "good delivery" bar for industrial use, and that this is among the cheapest way to buy silver if you stand for delivery of a futures contract--you'll get five of them. The other benefit is that the bar will not need to be "refined" when selling it, because it already is .999 fine. The drawback is the futures contract may default, and you might get nothing or a "cash settlement" while waiting. But you can also buy them direct and pay about a 3% commission. This is what Ted Butler moans about that silver investors face either premiums or delays, or defaults. Another drawback is you have to ship it from New York, and then back again. Shipping out costs 3%. It will be a much less percentage to ship it back after the price goes up! I have heard that the "assay" fee that they will attempt to scare you about if you remove the bars from the exchanges can be free at some depositories. The other drawback is they weigh just under 70 pounds each. You have to be strong or find someone who is strong to carry them. And few carriers will ship them. Another drawback is the assay for your self. How can you tell they didn't rip you off? The final drawback is the bars are ugly with big pits or dents in them.
100 oz. silver bars: The benefit is they look nice and are convenient to carry and count, weighing about 7 lbs each. And no "coin counting" which is convenient. Another benefit is that they should "ring test" quite easily. Bang with a wooded mallet, and you should hear a nice ring. Lead won't ring. The drawback is they usually cost 10% above the spot price. Another drawback is that if silver rises in value to very high prices, these bars will be worth a lot, and will be unable to be used to buy every day items. Imagine $250/oz silver x 100 oz. It would be like a $25,000 value. Not very useful for typical commerce. You might use one to buy a house if home values collapse, I suppose, or a nice car. So it's a liquid investment, but not useful for every day liquidity like buying food or gas. (But neither is stock.)
Silver US Eagles: These are not "bullion" because the price is so much more
expensive over the silver price, usually about $1.50 extra over the spot price at the cheapest. But they look nice and are .999 fine.
Silver "rounds". These are private mint one ounce coins .999 fine. Much cheaper than Eagles, but still might cost about 10% above the spot bullion price.
US coin 1964 or earlier, called "90% junk silver": The benefit is the coins are very recognizable and divisible into small units. Also, you can usually buy them very close to the spot price, so this is among the cheapest silver you can buy, if not the 1000 oz. bars. The drawback is you have to count them, or the dealer has to--but they don't charge for that.
Reports are that in January 1980, in the height of the silver spike, you could not get a good price when selling 90% silver because the refineries were backed up, and it might be months before they would pay out. But you also could not get a good price for a COMEX bar, because COMEX was closed to all new contracts, it was "liquidation only". So there was no place to quickly trade.
I'm not worried about those concerns, because I don't think you will ever have to quickly trade out of silver. I don't believe we will have "the spike up" like last time. I agree with Ted Butler that the silver shortage will not be quickly or easily filled, especially not when monetary demand comes back into the picture. I think we will have at least a generation of very high silver prices. An entire generation around the world who will swear they will never be deceived by the fraud of paper money again. This will be a generation of unprecedented prosperity and peace for all. Frauds and debts will be wiped out, and people will be free economically, and will be more able to make rational economic calculations in business and trading. Gold, silver, and honest exchange encourages trade, which increases specialization, boosts production, and thus increases the standards of living for everyone. The rise of the price of precious metals is not "bad for the economy" as they always tell us. That's a lie. Precious metals are good for the economy.
You will need physical metal for trading. Without it, you are "broke" and have nothing, and your portfolio is not properly and safely diversified.
You could lose your home without physical metal. In a severe economic pinch and monetary crash, physical metal could dry up and be completely unavailable, even if you sold stock. It might take some time for the markets to resume again. Before 1914, the Stock Exchange in New York was closed for 6 months. That could happen again. And how would you sell your silver stocks for food during that time? You couldn't! What if the stock markets closed, paper burned completely, the banks closed, and to survive, the government levied a tax on homes payable only in precious metal? That's the pattern of history. Homes and food would be available only to those who had precious metal. Large landowners with no metal could go bust and be on the streets with nothing.
You must have physical metal, and take profits in physical metal, and have the means to physically defend your wealth. Liquidity of precious metal is life.
I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1 ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper money collapse.
List of Bullion dealers:
(prices vary, the best deal is not always the same dealer)
http://www.coloradogold.com
http://www.the-moneychanger.com
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html
http://www.wexfordcoin.com/BullionBar.htm
http://www.goldsilverbullion.com/LiveBullionQuotes.htm (Same as above: wexford)
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/printer/ap.asp?category=1312&slug=Gold%20Coins
http://ajpm.com/htbin/silver.cgi
http://www.goldfingercoin.com/prices.html#SILVER
http://www.ccsilver.com/silver/silver_coins.html
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Brokerages for investors in the USA that handle Canadian issues and/or pink sheets:
www.ameritrade.com Internet, $10.99; Telephone System, $14.99; Broker-assisted: $24.99 Market orders, $29.99 Limit orders.
www.penntrade.com online trading, $29.95/trade. no extra charges for market orders, limit orders, large volume, small volume, stocks under $1.00, or Canadian, Pink Sheets, or OTCBB. (Get started with only $500!)
www.pennaluna.com --for broker assisted trades, starting at $45/trade.
www.gril.net Global Resource Investments LTD.. "They appear to be very knowledgeable in the field and all their brokers are out of the mining industry."
www.aftrader.com --only $10 in and $10 out. No extra fees. You buy the Canadians PK or OB.
www.etrade.com
www.scottrade.com "will buy Canadian stocks cheap."
(If you know of any other good brokers for CAN issues, & PK stocks, email me. Jasonhommel@yahoo.com Some investors are telling me their brokers cannot buy Canadian stocks or the pink sheets.)
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TO TRACK THE STOCKS ON THIS LIST: Click on yahoo finance. Take a minute to register. Sign in. At the top of the page, click "create" a portfolio. Choose "track your current holdings". In the large box, copy and paste the following symbols (Use your mouse to highlight the text, then use control-C to copy, control-V to paste).
XAGUSD=X BHP GMBXF.PK HL IPOAF.PK CDE GRS GAM.TO MFN MFL.TO SIL CZN.TO CZICF.PK FSR.TO CFTN.PK MGR.V MGRSF.PK PAAS GQM.TO GQMNF.PK MR.TO MRB WTZ WTC.TO TM.V TUMIF.PK KBR.V SSRI MAN.TO MMALF.PK ASM.V ASGMF.PK ADB.V DNI.V FAN.TO FRLLF.PK SRLM.PK SVL.V STVZF.PK MAI.V MNEAF.OB EXR.V EXPTF.PK ECU.V MNMM.OB HDA.V UNCN.OB IMR.V IMXPF.OB VGZ VGZ.TO MCAJF.PK CDU.V CUEAF.PK MAG.V TVI.TO NPG.V NVPGF.PK TVIPF.PK MMGG.OB EPZ.V ESPZF.PK IAU.V ITDXF.PK HGM.V NJMC.OB MMG.V MMEEF.PK QTA.V QURAF.PK EXN.V GNG.V SPM.V SHSH.PK ROK.V ITRO.OB III.TO IPMLF.PK EZM.V EZMCF.PK MTB.V MSLM.PK MAR.AX RRM.V SBUM.PK FWGO.OB MEMLA.PK SLSR.PK SDSI.PK HRNS.PK GPXM.OB TUO.V TEUTF.PK HGM.V HOGOF.PK GSPG.OB AAG.V ANMCF.PK MVRM.OB
The first symbol, "XAGUSD=X" lets you track the silver price. These symbols are in the exact order they appear in this weekly report, so this way, you can follow along what's taking place in the silver market on a daily basis. Also, you can easily access charts for any of these, such as 1 day, 5 day, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, 2 year, or 5 year charts. You will love being able to access this information so quickly from your own continually updating "silver stock page". You will also be able to see, in one place, right at the end of the list, the news releases for each stock on the list (if the company has their PR act together).
Here is how to track the price of your Pink Sheets stocks. The PK symbols do not update volume or price too often, if at all. This is often due to the laziness of the pink sheet dealers. To get the price and volume of your stock, look up the Canadian symbol. Then, multiply the Canadian price by the exchange rate, which today is about .76. That will give your US dollar price. Then, add about 1-3% for commissions for trading through the pink sheet dealers to get an idea of what you might pay. But due to the lack of liquidity in these, sometimes a single moderately-sized order can move the price up 15% if you buy in a hurry, so be prepared for that. If you put in a low price, sometimes your limit order will be filled if you are patient, and the price moves back down to your order, and that might take a few days, or perhaps never if the stock takes off well above your price.
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This is a list of primary silver stocks.
I count a company's ounces of gold as 10 oz of silver. Why? Because I have a very strong positive bias in favor of silver over gold.
Given my bias in favor of much, much higher silver prices, then, to me, the grades of silver are far less important than buying more oz. in the ground. More oz. in the ground at a lower cost is the most important consideration for me.
My method is simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get (silver reserve totals), and how much does it cost (market cap)? The cost is the market cap divided by the silver reserve totals. Cheaper is better. Buy low, sell high.
Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information below over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to the best of my ability. I may have made mistakes. I probably did. I'm human. I have collected the information from public sources such as company web sites and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This report in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the information may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares can change as a company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through private placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and converted into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated, or split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change, as these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down, depending on drilling results.
This information is not intended as a solicitation for any company.
All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of certainty which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the least accurate, there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to estimate. Additionally, every miner always has "more silver properties that need to be explored, which probably contain more silver". For the purposes of this report, I have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these "ounce in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce silver, or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above, that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.
I may be wrong. (I probably make mistakes in every article, and there have been updates and corrections made each week, especially as prices change.)
Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Silver stock companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, or issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the company you may own (dilution). Yet, they need to issue shares to raise capital for drilling, and then an even bigger dilution to build a working mine. They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, or worse, hedge the price of YOUR silver just as it begins to go up if they lock in a price which then proves to be too low if the dollar is destroyed. Mining is a risky business as estimates of assets in the ground can change. There is political risk and environmental risk. They can't franchise the business, are stuck in one location, are subject to government confiscation, or taxes, or union wage negotiations, and corporate looting.
Do your own research. Be responsible for your own investment decisions. Again, please, before investing in a mining company, call up the company, and speak either with the CEO or the Investor Relations contact person.
So, at the very least, check the company web site, read the annual reports, check my numbers, check my math, and email the company. That's what they are there for, to answer your questions, and to speak about the opportunity of the company. Don't trust everything you read over the internet. I am a biased source. I own silver mining stocks. And I'm not a broker, nor an investment advisor. I'm just a private investor trying to make sense of this crazy world, and sharing my information and thoughts on silver companies.
This report may be copied, and transmitted by other people, and may become outdated by the time it reaches you.
I can't tell you how you should invest your money, of course. The reason is that I don't know how convinced you are of the silver bull market, nor do I know how soon you will be needing the money back, so I don't know how long you can wait to see results, nor do I know how much liquidity you need. Nor do I know the size of the money you have to invest. It is very hard to invest large quantities of money in a small market cap stock.
That being said, my investment strategy seems to be working for me, so far. And so, here is how I have valued the following silver companies to make my own investment decisions.
(Market cap is always converted to US dollars and denominated in US dollars because I divide by ounces of silver, which are also denominated in dollars)
BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP)
http://www.bhpbilliton.com/
--'produces 40 mil oz. silver annually from one mine'
Additional comments: unfortunately, BHP has a 49 Billion market cap, so we can't buy BHP for the "silver exposure". IE, $49 Billion / oh, say, 1000 million?????= $49/oz.
Hello? BHP? By all means, keep mining the silver if you want the silver exposure, and want to be in the silver busines. But don't sell the silver. Keep it. Let the profits of your entire company accrue as an increasing physical supply of physical silver. In fact, do as Buffett did, and buy more silver if you can. It would be infinitely easier for you to buy silver from yourself than it would be to buy 40 million ounces of silver from the COMEX, which, today, might be impossible.
Grupo Mexico SA de CV (GMBXF.PK)
http://www.gmexico.com/indexi.html
"Grupo Mexico ranks as the world's third largest copper producer, fourth largest producer of silver and fifth largest producer of zinc."
HL
http://hecla-mining.com/
Phone: (208) 769-4100
109 mil shares @ $5.90 share
$647 million Market Cap (MC)
near zero debt, cash: $113 mil
(est. 2003 production 9 mil oz. silver)
(the La Camorra gold mine, 412,000 oz gold.) ... (x 350/5 = 28 mil silver equivalent oz.)
San Sebastian silver mine, (proven & probably reserves) 8.7 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Greens Creek silver mine (proven & probably reserves) 31 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Lucky Friday mine (proven & probably reserves) 14 mil. (produced 2 mil)
Total silver = 53.7 million oz.
Plus 412,000 oz. gold x 10 = 4.1 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv. reserves = 57.8 mil oz.
$647 mil MC / 57.8 mil = $11.19/oz.
You get "approx" .45 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: HL has more oz. than listed in the "proven & probable" category used in this calculation.
Another way to check the value of HL is too look at profit, since they are active miners. They mine 9 million ounces of silver a year. What's the profit on that today? Very little. Total "cash costs" are $3.68/oz. (and that includes gold credits) Profit at $5.05/oz. is $1.37/oz x 9 mil oz. annual production = $12.3 million annual profit. Give a PE of 647/12.3 = 52. That's a very high P/E, which means HL is very expensive.
I wrote an article comparing HL to CZN:
Silver Price Expectations of Silver Stock Investors - 30 October 2003
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel103003.html
I also posted a few comments, and answered a few remarks, at the Yahoo! message board for HL, attempting to alert them to the dangers of owning over valued HL. Few listened, but I think some understood.
Also, why does HL hold $113 million dollars worth of cash at the beginning of a bull market in silver? It makes no sense to me. Cash is trash in inflation. They should be buying physical silver, or, use that cash to buy other silver resources in the ground.
CDE
www.coeur.com
210 mil shares (Issued 32 mil new shares late Oct. 2003)
@ share price $3.49
$732 mil MC
cash $38 mil
San Bartolome (Bolivia) reserves 146 mil silver
Silver Valley Silver reserves 32 mil silver
Rochester reserves 43 mil silver
Cerro Bayo reserves 3.7 mil silver
Total: 224.7 mil silver
(to Produce 14.6 mil oz. silver in 2003)
$732 mil MC / 224.7 mil oz = $3.25/oz.
You get "approx" 1.55 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: CDE issued new shares this week. CDE continued to lose money in third quarter 2003, a loss of 10 cents/share, and they realized low prices for silver sales, $4.77. I believe they have hedged their gold production at low prices.
Again, their listing of ounces is in the "reserves" category (more certain) not the "resources" category, which is less certain. They probably have "resources" but like HL and Industrias Penoles, they give no estimates.
IPOAF.PK
www.penoles.com.mx
397.5 mil shares outstanding (2002 annual unchanged since 2001)
@ $2.95/share
$1,172 mil MC
419 proven and probable reserves of silver (from 2002 annual report on website)
$1,172 mil MC / 419 oz. silver = $2.79/oz.
You get "approx" 1.8 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Industrias Penoles is the world's top producer of refined silver. They actually derrive more revenue from silver than any other source. But they lost money in 2002.
78.5 million oz. silver produced by the metals division in 2002, and 1 mil oz. gold.
I think Industrias Penoles should stop mining silver if they are doing it at a loss. Basic econ 101, right? Don't engage in uneconomical activity. Perhaps they have a small gain this year with improved prices? Regardless, they should realize that silver in the ground is an asset, and also that silver in the hand is an asset. If they do make a profit, I hope they decide to keep the form of their profits in silver, or at least, pay out a dividend in silver.
Their oz. numbers are "proven & probable reserves", which is much more certain than most of the others which are mostly "inferred and indicated resources." They undoubtedly have "inferred and indicated resources" in addition to the "proven & probable reserves," I just could not find any info on that at the website or in the annual report.
GRS / GAM.TO
http://www.gammonlake.com/
Phone: (902) 468-0614
fully diluted 52 mil shares
@ share price $4.62
$240 MIL MC
http://www.gammonlake.com/Sharholder_message.htm
"With the drilling of over 179 holes totalling over 33,700-metres, the resource calculation contains 761,000 gold ounces and 38.2-million silver ounces in the measured and indicated categories and a further 925,000 gold ounces and approximately 45-million silver ounces in the inferred category."
Total gold: 1.7 mil oz. x 10 = 17 mil silver equiv.
Total silver: 83 mil oz.
Total silver equiv = 100 mil oz.
$240 MIL MC / 100 mil oz. = $2.40/oz.
You get "approx" 2.10 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: At current prices of a 70:1 silver:gold ratio, about 58% of the company is in gold, 41% silver. Gold equiv oz. is about 3 mil oz. total. Cash cost is $85/oz. Life of mine is 7 years. At $385 gold, should produce $900 mil oz. profit over the life of the mine. Not bad for the current $182 MIL MC... even though the "silver in the ground" cost is currently high. Therefore, my valuation method undercounts the gold componant, and undercounts current producers. But that is intended, however, because I believe silver has over 7 times the potential as gold. My comparison method does not say that the companies that cost more can't bring a reasonable profit to the shareholder. My comparison method does tend to say that the profits will be higher for the silver companies that cost less.
There's just not a lot of silver exposure here for the price. But with the high grades, and "gold bonus" the risk is lower, and the profits should be here for those who want more safety in a stock pick.
And they are "rapidly expanding" resources & reserves with round-the-clock drilling of 4 rigs.
MFN MFL.TO
http://www.minefinders.com/index.html
31 mil shares
@ $8.18
$256 mil MC
measured & indicated 2.3 mil oz gold, 116 mil oz. silver inferred 1.1 mil oz. gold, 40 mil oz. silver
Totals: 3.4 mil oz. gold, 156 mil oz. silver.
~ silver conversion = 3.4 x 10 = 34 mil silver equiv + 156 mil oz. silver = 190 mil oz. silver
(only 40% is silver, the rest gold)
$256 mil MC / 190 mil oz. = $1.34/oz.
You get "approx" 3.74 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Well over half the value here is the gold, again, which my method significantly undervalues due to my bias in favor of silver. At 385/oz gold and 5/oz silver, $1309 million (62%) is in gold, and $780 million (37%) is in silver.
SIL
http://www.apexsilver.com/
36.6 mil shares
@ $13.44/share
$492 mil MC
San Cristobal (Bolivia) (proven & probably reserves) 454 mil silver
(forecast capital costs for construction to total approximately $435 million)
(Produced zero silver in 2002)
7.8 billion pounds of zinc, and 2.9 billion pounds of lead
$492 mil MC / 454 mil oz = $1.08/oz.
You get "approx" 4.68 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Apex silver has come down significantly from a high of $18/share in early August, and primarily has institutional investors.
Apex is still way too expensive--especially since they are not producing. But they do have "high grades", but a part of the high grade story is that this one has a lot of zinc. That's an added bonus that is not factored in to my method of valuation. Several writers have been saying zinc prices will be heading up soon, so that's another bonus. Plenty of zinc is especially good if zinc is moving up in price. And, they are not mining now, but are waiting for higher silver prices. That's also a plus. The management also seems to understand that silver will move upwards a lot. Another plus. Finally, George Soros, Billionaire, owns a bit of this one, just under 10% I read recently. Another plus, in general, for the silver market if Billionaires are paying attention to it.
* CZN.TO / CZICF.PK --(I own shares)
http://www.canadianzinc.com/
45.1 mil shares (fully diluted) as of Sept., 2003
65 mil shares fully diluted when the Oct 16th Private placement is filled.
@ Share Price $1.38 CAN x .76 dollar/CAN = $1.05 US
$68 mil MC
not mining ($20 mil needed to finish & start the mine) ($100 mil worth of mining infrastructure in place!)
~70 mil oz. (IN ZONE 3 only!! of 12 zones! This company seems to be greatly under-reporting their silver reserves. Their 18 year mine plan consists of zone 3 only, but there are 12 mineralized zones on the property.) Really, perhaps well over 100 mil oz. silver.
$68 mil MC / 70 mil oz. = $.97/oz.
You get "approx" 5.18 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: I wrote an article on Canadian Zinc on Oct. 23 that appeared here: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel102303.html I concluded with a share price target of between US $2.04/share and US $4.42/share.
I wrote another article comparing HL to CZN here:
Silver Price Expectations of Silver Stock Investors
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel103003.htm
I believe Canadian Zinc will have more profit than Hecla Mining, and will also have significantly more exposure to rising silver prices.
I would like the company to privide an estimate of the silver on the rest of their properties, but their mine plan consisted only of zone 3 at the moment. The rest must remain "exploration potential" for now.
To get the mine up and running, they might be able to pay back such debt within 2 years, but I would hope they would avoid debt, and raise the capital as the share price begins to approach $2/share or more, and do a final public offering between $2-4/share.
I note several very, very positive things about this company.
1. This was the mining operation set up by the Hunt brothers, the major silver investors in the silver spike to $50/oz. in 1980 who were destroyed by their own debts and margin calls as a result of the COMEX rule changes and silver short sale manipulation. The Hunts spent $50 million building infrastructure to get the mine running. They were 90% complete when bankruptcy hit. The value of those buildings is now $100 million, and the mine only needs about $20 million (CAN) ($15 mil US) to get the mine up and running. That's much cheaper than other cost estimates of other operations.
2. The 70 million oz. of silver estimate is for zone 3 only. But there are 12 zones on the property. The zone 3 estimate is for a 10 year mine plan that involves mining zone 3 at current metals prices. The company can mine, at a profit, at current silver and zinc prices.
3. High Grade ores:
12% zinc/ton; = 240 lbs. zinc/ton x 42 cents/lb. = $101/ton for the zinc.
10.1% lead/ton = 202 lbs. lead/ton x 27 cents/lb. = $55/ton for the lead.
6 oz. silver/ton x $5.11/oz. = $31/ton for the silver.
0.4% copper/ton = 8 lbs. copper/ton x 90 cents/lb. = $7/ton for the copper.
Total: $194/ton.
4. My method of valuation: If I counted the zinc as silver, then the price of this company would be something like four times cheaper than it is based on my "valuation method". If I counted the lead as silver, then this company would be about 4-5 times cheaper.
5. Zinc and base metals prices are moving up strong. Check http://www.metalprices.com/ for updates.
Update: The recent private placement was just expanded to the maximum size allowed by the shareholders, because it was heavily over-subscribed. Sophisticated and Accredited investors wanted in on this one at .50 cents--and judging by the recent share price, they were not mistaken!
I own shares of CZN.TO
FSR.TO
http://www.firstsilver.com/
37 mil shares
@ share price $1.18 (CAN) x .76 dollar/CAN = $.90 US
$33 mil MC
From the Company's main page at their url:
"As at December 31, 2001, First Silver's mineable reserves were 12 million ounces of silver and inferred resources totaled 30 million ounces of silver. The mine is developing a 1000 plus meter exploration drift to upgrade currently identified inferred resources to mineable ore reserves and to discover new reserves."
12 + 30 = 42 mil oz.
$33 mil MC / 42 mil oz. = $.79/oz.
You get "approx" 6.39 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This is a high grade, producing miner. The high grades are a plus. Some say that a producing miner is also a plus. They are also actively exploring, another plus.
* CFTN.PK (I own shares)
http://www.cliftonmining.com/
801-756-1414
Ken Friedman
(50 mil shares authorized)
45 mil shares fully diluted
@ .79/share US
$35.55 mil MC
http://www.cliftonmining.com/wsreview.htm --source of 100 mil oz. resources est.
http://www.cliftonmining.com/resource.htm
From: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=13531
"A previous geologist has talked about a possible resource of 1 billion oz. of silver, and 5 million oz. of gold."
100 mil oz. silver
+500,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
= 105 mil oz. silver.
up to 1000 mil oz. silver "exploration potential".
Clifton sold up to 50% of the project to Dumont Nickel for $5 million to be paid over time.
50% x 105 = 52.5 million oz.
50% x 1000 = 500 mil oz. "exploration potential"
$35.55 mil MC / 52.5 mil oz. = $.68/oz.
The inverse: you get 7.45 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Note the "exploration potential". This is about 10 times cheaper, like 7 cents/oz, or you "might" get 75 oz. in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
I think the value of this one went up hard last week due to people looking at the exploration value here. Perhaps I should have bought more than I did.
In previous reports, I said, "For more info on what's going on with Clifton, see www.dumontnickel.com" The bad news is that Dumont will own up to 1/2 the silver project. The good news is that the exploration potential of the silver project may be up to 10 times bigger than the 100 mil oz. previously reported in the "100 mil oz. resources est."
Clifton also has a patent on a "super" colloidal silver solution made with 10,000 volts that adds oxygen that gives it more powerful antibacterial properties, and is safer since it uses less silver, which would prevent "blue skin" argyria. Normal colloidal silver that you can make at home with 30 volts works to kill bacteria by disrupting the oxygen metabolism of the cell wall, killing bacteria with oxygen. The market for safe antibiotics is in the multi Billions of dollars.
I own a few shares of CFTN.PK.
MGR.V / MGRSF.PK
http://www.mexgold.com/
18.7 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $2.49 CAN x .76 = $1.89 US
$35.4 mil MC
inferred resource: 45 mil oz. silver + 1 mil oz gold.
1 mil oz. gold = + 10 mil oz. silver equiv
"The estimate does not address significant additional mineralized structures known to be present on the property, or the potential for large strike extensions of known high-grade zones."
$35.4 mil MC / 55 mil oz. = $.64/oz.
You get "approx" 7.84 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Gammon Lake is a large shareholder, 50%. The quote above comes from Gammon's website. http://www.gammonlake.com/corporate_profile.htm
PAAS
http://panamericansilver.com/
52 mil shares
@ $10.53
$549 mil MC
D/E .08 cash: $12 mil.
10 silver properties (3 in production)
produced 7 mil oz. silver in 2001:
February 2003 presentation reported total reserves including peru stockpiles of 874.3 million ounces
earnings -$.77/share?!
$549 mil MC / 874.3 mil oz. = $.63/oz.
You get "approx" 8.04 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: PAAS is one of the few silver producers on this list. Thus, they are a "silver miner" as their investor relations person will painstakingly point out. The other companies who do not mine silver, but merely own silver properties and drill them, are not "silver miners," nor are they "silver mining companies". They are "silver properties," or "silver opportunities," or "silver speculations," I guess. Ok, but that still does not justify selling silver at firesale prices, in my book.
PAAS recently went into debt in order to ramp up production. I am strongly biased against debt. But it's a convertible debenture, so the debt can be converted into stock. They know and believe higher silver prices are coming, which is great, and their strategy is to be in solid production mode when the higher price hits. In the meantime, though, the extra production will delay the inevitable silver boom, and they are destroying shareholder value. I also advocated buying PAAS. And I recently sold. I sold because I think there are better opportunities out there.
GQM.TO / GQMNF.PK
http://www.goldenqueen.com/
info@goldenqueen.com
51.9 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.59 CAN x .76 = $.4484 US
$23 mil MC
"This mineable reserve is estimated to contain 1,529,000 oz gold and 24,870,000 oz silver." --from the homepage
gold x 10 = 15.2 mil + 24.8 mil = 40 mil silver equiv.
"The estimated capital cost to the start of production is now U.S.$36 million"
$23 mil MC / 40 mil oz. = .58/oz.
You get "approx" 8.66 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: My method is severely mis-pricing this company due to the large gold componant. At a ratio of 70:1, the value of the gold and silver are as follows: 1.5 mil gold x $370/oz gold = $555 mil; 24.8 mil oz silver x $4.8/oz silver = $119 mil. Thus, this company, at today's prices is 555/674 (82%) in gold and 119/674 (18%) in silver. With values like that, it comes out relatively expensive as a pure silver play (discounting the gold as I do), but they could earn good profits, given that gold is not 10 times the silver price, but 70 times the silver price. The interesting thing here is that the company has a historic ratio of silver to gold, at 16:1.
Ignore my method of valuation for this one, and consider this company has a "huge gold bonus" that may be worth seriously considering if you are not a hard-core silver bug like I am. If they move to production today, then the price will be based on the profits from the gold, not by the "oz in the ground" method of valuation. I have not done a profit estimate for this one.
Looking at the gold alone: $23 mil / 1.5 mil oz. gold = $15.33/oz. for the gold here. But if you want a gold play, Vista gold may be better.
MR.TO / MRB (METLF.OB changed to MRB)
http://www.metal-res.com/
Ritch Hall, 303-796-0229 ext. 304
42.5 mil shares outstanding (2003 1 Qtr report)
@ share price $2.43 CAN x .76 = $1.84 US
$78.5 mil MC
"The capital cost to develop the mine is estimated at $28.2 million."
From: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031023/235150_1.html
"a total resource of approximately 5.1 million ounces of gold and 91 million ounces of silver. In addition, Metallica's copper resource is estimated at 1.9 billion pounds."
5.1 x 10 = 51 mil oz "silver equiv". + 91 mil silver = 142
$78.5 mil MC / 142 mil oz. silver = $.55/oz.
You get "approx" 9.1 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: I just got new and better information on this from last week. I did not have numbers for copper and gold, but now I do. There is a significant "gold and copper" bonus here. At 75:1, $375:$5, the percentage of gold to silver value is $1912 million gold, $455 million silver, or 72% gold, 28% silver, not including the copper. At $.90/lb. copper, the copper is also worth $1710 million. Again, my method counts silver only, and counts gold by only 10 times the value of silver, not 70, so factor in a large gold and copper bonus.
WTZ / WTC.TO
www.westernsilvercorp.com
(formerly western copper)
34.3 mil shares (Oct. 2003)
@ share price $3.53 US
$121 mil MC
(not actively mining)
From the "SNC Lavalin Resource Calculation" March, 2003.
Indicated 158.8 mil oz. silver
Inferred 54.6 mil oz. silver
Total 213.4 oz. silver.
Total 1.94 oz. gold x 10 (at 10:1) = 19.4 silver equiv.
The capital cost of the project to get the mine going is estimated to be US $148,628,400
$121 mil MC / 232.8 oz. = $.52/oz.
You get "approx" 9.71 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: (Updated March, 2003.--my prior data must have been older?) Note the capital cost to get the mining started: $148 million dollars.
A friendly email came in and said that WTZ also has the following other metal resources:
3.73 billion pounds of zinc
673 million pounds of copper
1.3 billion pounds of lead
I note that Canadian Zinc has a similarly-sized 3 billion lbs of zinc, more lead, but with a much smaller market cap, and lower start up costs.
TM.V / TUMIF.PK
www.tumiresources.com
Nick Nicolaas IR (604) 657 4058
16.2 fully dilutted shares (Oct. 21, 2003)
@ share price .99 CAN (x .76) = $.75 US
$12.18 mil MC
20 mil oz resource up to 50 million oz. silver potential but needs to be explored and drilled.
500,000 gold resource x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
Debt free, 2 projects in Mexico.
$12.18 mil MC / 25 mil oz. = .48 ***I'm using this number***
$12.18 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = .24 (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 10.52 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Tumi is focused on becoming a "premiere junior silver explorer." It's good to see the focus is in the right metal. Doing active drilling to prove up their projects and increase "resources". Nick Nicolaas really understands the silver story, beliving silver has much greater appreciation potential than gold.
KBR.V
http://www.kimberresources.com
(604) 669-2251
28 mil shares fully diluted
@ share price $.74 x .76 = US $.56
$15.7 mil MC
from http://www.smartstox.com/reports/kbr.pdf
30 mil oz. silver resources indicated and inferred
540,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5.4 mil "silver equiv."
$15.7 mil MC / 35.4 mil oz. = $.45/oz.
You get "approx" 11.35 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
SSRI
http://www.silver-standard.com/
40 mil shares (Oct. 2003)
@ share price $7.08
$283 mil MC
debt free, cash: $10 mil
not mining or producing
15 silver properties
measured and indicated resources totaling 300.4 million ounces of silver
plus inferred resources totaling 366 million ounces of silver = 666 mil oz.
2.2 mil oz. gold. Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. silver. (22+666=688 mil oz.)
$283 mil MC / 688 mil oz. = $.41/oz.
You get "approx" 12.27 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: SSRI really is the "silver standard". SSRI has the largest market cap this far down the list, which makes it a more attractive target for people with larger amounts of money to invest.
SSRI continues to add to reserves, either through exploring, or through acquisitions. This company seems to really understand the silver story, and helped to educate me as an investor.
MAN.TO MMALF.PK
http://www.manhattan-min.com/s/ReservesAndResources.asp
Larry Glazer CEO
1 800 810 7111
63 mil shares fully diluted
$1.18 /share x .76 = $.89 US
$56 mil MC
Location: northern Peru
t1 deposit inferred and indicated resources of:
1.9 mil oz gold, 64 mil oz silver, 1.94 bil lb copper, 1.35 bil lb. zinc.
t3 deposit inferred 64.1 mil oz. silver, 2.1 mil oz. gold
Total of just these two: 128 mil oz. silver, 4 mil oz. gold x 10 = 40 mil oz. "silver equiv" = 168 mil oz. silver.
In the sulfide deposit of t-1, containing 47.7 mil oz. silver, perhaps only 1/2 the silver is "recoverable". So, minus half that, or 24 mil oz. = 144 mil oz.
$56 mil MC / 144 mil oz. = .39/oz.
You get "approx" 12.87 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: (Last week I goofed. I forgot to convert the CDN share price to dollars for the purpose of my calculation. This was not the first time I made this kind of mistake. I did this once before with another stock a few weeks ago. I'm very sorry if this confused anyone. I make mistakes. Please pay attention, and try to catch my mistakes. Nobody even alerted me to this mistake last week. Mistakes like this happen even in press reports sometimes. Please double check all numbers before you invest.)
Significant copper and zinc and gold bonuses here. $180 million to develop project. Cash gold cost projected: $83/oz.gold. The deposit has "been economic for some time now". TG-1 has a positive full feasibility study and and EIA now undergoing government review.
* ASM.V / ASGMF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.avino.com/
shares@avino.com
604 682-3701
David Wolfin
10.9 mil shares (fully diluted with the 4 mil new shares from PP)
(proposed PP in late Oct 2 mil units at $1.27 (unit = 1 share + 1 warrant at 1.58)
@ share price $2.35 CAN x .76 = $1.78 US
$19.5 mil MC
from: http://www.avino.com/other/goldstock100197.html --in 1997
"How Much Silver Does Avino Have?"
"Operations at Avino's silver mine in Mexico are both open-pit and underground. I examined the reserves and interpolated the tonnage into silver ounces as follows: 28-million ounces proven; 50-million ounces probable and 27 million ounces possible." (Not all are 43101 compliant reserves & resources.--that is an old, third party report.)
--focus is on being silver company. A plus.
They actually have over five silver properties/projects. I'm only have numbers to count for one, the "Avino mine".
= 28 + 50 + 27 = 105
Avino owns 49% of that, or 51.5 mil oz.
-"not considered reserves under the new Canadian National Policy 43-101"
$19.5 mil MC / 51.5 mil oz. = $.37/oz.
You get "approx" 13.35 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional notes: There are 4 additional silver properties that I don't have numbers for. Consider this a "silver bonus"!!!
Mexican mining law once stated that a controlling interest had to be owned by Mexicans, which explains why they only have a 49% interest. That they don't have a controlling interest is a minus. This law has changed. The mine was operational until the mine went into temporary closure in November 2001. So there is in place an existing mine, with working infrastructure, which is a bonus. There is a need for drilling in order to test the potential that was stated in the feasibility study.
I own shares of ASM.V.
ADB.V
http://www.admiralbay.com/
604 628 5642
Curt Huber-- Business Development
info@admiralbay.com
26.2 mil shares fully diluted (as of Oct 7th., 2003)
+ up to 5.2 mil shares in private placement of Oct 17, 2003
31.4 mil shares to possibly be fully dilluted.
@ share price $1.40 CAN x .76 = $1.06 US
$33.36 mil MC
--owns an option to earn 70% interest in "Miera San Jorge's Monte del Favor property in Mexico"
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/030805/d437a0c9d62c76c2377aeec3a7e9a659_1.html
"An historical resource estimate based on underground sampling at Monte Del Favor is reported at 17 million tonnes grading 0.85 g/t gold and 224 g/t silver for a contained 123 million ounces of silver and 460,000 ounces of gold." "While this resource estimate is not fully 43-101 compliant, the Company considers that it provides a conceptual indication of the potential of the property."
460,000 x 10 = 4.6 mil "silver equiv".
127.6 mil oz. x 70% interest = 89.3 mil oz.
$33.36 mil MC / 89.3 mil oz. = $.37/oz.
You get "approx" 13.75 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Prior grades hit 2-5 kilos silver/ ton. (2000-5000g/ton. 70-176 oz. ton) Very high grades. The project was never properly drilled with modern methods.
Admiral Bay acquired this option to own a 70% interest in this silver property in June, 2003, and the acquisition did not impact their stock price at that time at all. Previously, they were a gas company, and they still have this other gas project, which may be more than half the intrinsic value of the company according to Curt Huber, who understands the silver story as expressed by Ted Butler and David Morgan. My valuation method, obviously, does not give any value for their gas project, which therefore needs to be factored in as a significant "bonus".
They are actively digging now, building a road and uncovering mineralization areas, and tracing surface veins. They will be drilling before the end of October, spending $500,000 before the end of 2003. They have $2 million cash in the till.
DNI.V
www.dumontnickel.com
56.4 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.41 share x .76 = $.31
$17.6 mil MC
*** Dumont still needs to raise and pay several million to clifton for 50% of the project.
$17.6 mil MC/ 52.5 million oz. = $.33/oz.
You get "approx" 15 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Clifton's JV partner, doing active drilling work right now.
* FAN.TO / FRLLF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.farallonresources.com/fan/Home.asp
Erick Bertsch
(604) 684-6365
43.8 mil shares fully diluted (At Aug 31, 2003)
(plus a pp announced on Oct 31 of 15 mil units of 1 share @ .38 1 warrant @ .5 which is 30 mil new shares, to raise $5.7 million)
73.8 mil shares fully diluted as of Oct 31, 2003
@ share price $.64 CAN x .76 = $.49 US
$35.9 mil MC
Exploration and development in Mexico.
See also hdgold.com (Hunter-Dickinson)
On 4 sulphide deposits out of 16, 29 mil ton grading 89 grams silver/t and 1.57 g gold/t.
Conversion: 89 grams x .0353 oz/gram = 3.14 oz.
RE: those 29 mil tons, they "anticipate increasing resources to 50 mil tonne range..."
3.14 oz. x 29 mil tons = 91 mil oz. silver
1.6 mil oz. gold x 10 = 16 mil oz "silver equiv".
Total: 107 mil oz. silver equiv.
$35.9 mil MC / 107 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.34/oz.
You get "approx" 15 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This stock was a $3/share stock in 1998. Look at the long term chart. (The price on the long term chart, however, does not include the new shares, so consider the price may have been about 40% less, or only $1.80, not $3.)
Private placement news link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031031/315485_1.html
Nothing done or drilled on the property since 1999. Why not? Because of low zinc prices: 46% of the price of the metals was in the zinc before prices crashed... (This one reminds me of Canadian Zinc. They think they are a zinc company.) The largest componant today is gold, which was surprising to Eric, the IR guy I spoke with. About 1/3 is in silver now.
At today's low metals prices:
2% x 2000 lb = 40 lbs zinc x $.42/lb = $16.8 for the zinc (.37 to .50 lb zinc.)
3.14 oz. x $5.15 = $16 for the silver.
.055421 oz. x $385/oz. = $21 for the gold
(Assuming 100% metals recovery--which is not likely to be the case. It may range from 60% to a higher percentage, depending on extraction methods used and the particular mineral targeted, which constantly change with technology advancements, and price changes in the metals. By the time a mine like this gets running, perhaps in 5 years or so, things may change to allow even greater metal recovery.)
Speaking with the company, they think reserves of ore could be 50 mil tonnes OR MORE, but that they really don't know, and want to issue conservative estimates.
I own shares of FAN.TO.
* SRLM.PK (I own shares)
http://www.sterlingmining.com/
7 mil shares
@ share price $7.50
$52.5 mil MC
~185 mil oz. reserves + resource, Sunshine alone
Quote from: http://www.sterlingmining.com/jun112003.html
"The prior operator last estimated the mine reserves at 26.75 million ounces of silver, 10.36 million pounds of copper and 7.05 million pounds of lead (or approximately 28.85 million ounces of silver-equivalent), as well as an additional resource of 159.66 million ounces of silver. "
~100 mil oz. other properties: the 10 sq. miles around the 1/2 sq mile of the Sunshine (rough guess--needs to be explored) *** I use this number*** even though--these extra 100 mil oz. are in the "explorer" category. They need to be drilled and found, although I've heard of estimates as high as 400 mil oz. total for SRLM.PK
$52.5 mil MC / 185 mil oz. = $.28/oz.
$52.5 mil MC / 285 mil oz. = $.18/oz. (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 17.79 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential is 28. )
Additional comments:
(I had been counting the exploration potential differently than others for this one. Now, it is clearly separated, so it is like the rest.)
Sterling Mining acquired the Sunshine mine. Sunshine was one of the big three: Hecla, Couer, & Sunshine. Sunshine went bankrupt. Sterling got the property a few months ago cheap, because they were quick & willing to pay cash. Other buyers wanted to do a full study before making an offer. This company's share price went ballistic as a result. But the company is still way undervalued. Just do the math, people. I own a substantial share of SRLM.PK There were a few great articles written lately for SRLM. See the company web site, above. The best factors, I feel, are as follows:
1. The Sunshine mine is an existing mine that was mining at a profit. The company went bankrupt, not the mine. So there will be no great capital costs for start up, only minimal costs.
2. The Sunshine sits on 1/2 sq. mile, and was never fully explored. Sterling Mining owns 10 square miles of property surrounding the Sunshine, right in the heart of silver country, the location of CDE and HL, the other two big companies at the top of this list.
3. The management of Sunshine understands the silver story. They are on a mission to acquire distressed silver properties at today's cheap prices.
4. The additional share offering, if it closes, could mean 8.5 mil shares, which would mean a market cap of $37 mil. That's a minus. $37 / 260 = .14/oz., which is a little higher price. Beware of additional share issues causing shareholder dilution.
Do not confuse SRLM with SSMR. SSMR is the Sunshine mining company, which went bankrupt. SRLM acquired the Sunshine mine. If you want to buy the Sunshine mine, you buy Sterling Mining Company, SRLM.
I own shares of SRLM.PK
SVL.V / STVZF.PK
http://www.silvercrestmines.com/
17.8 mil shares
@ share price $1.35 CAN x (.76 US/CAN) = $1.03 US
$18.3 mil MC
Indicated resources of silver 30 mil oz. (SOZ.)
Projects in Honduras.
BUT...
*** discovery adds silver*** (perhaps 40-100 mil oz.) see below
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/030902/e028426ecfc575e72750ed7fbd6ab220_1.html
new silver totals are projected to be: 70 - 130 mil oz.
$18.3 mil MC / 70 = $.26/oz.
You get "approx" 19.4 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential = 35 oz.)
Additional comments: Now, whenever there is a range like that, it means those are ounces they need to drill to prove up. And drilling costs money, but does not generate revenue like mining. They are "exploring" those. They are not like "inferred resources" ounces, which, although the least certain category, are more certain than this range number.
There was a discovery that the company found and wrote and told me about, that they are now working on. Plus, their reserves are potentially "open pitable" which reduces costs.
Every silver company out there always has "more silver property" that potentially has "more silver in the ground" that they "need to explore". So every company has a "silver bonus" that's not included in their oz. reserve figures. But exploration is risky, and costly. It's why metals are precious.
MAI.V / MNEAF.OB
http://minandes.com/
IR Tel: (604) 689-7017
Email: ircanada@minandes.com
37 mil shares outstanding on February 5, 2003
@ share $.475 CAN x .76 = $.36 US
$13.35 mil MC
company says "55 mil silver equiv. oz." --Note, I do NOT know what that means! But I do know they are counting gold, or copper, or something, as silver. How much is gold or copper, I don't know. But I do know this: Gold is NOT silver. And I calculate gold as silver, differently than others. I use 10:1. They might use 70:1. So be careful, and do more research. Nevertheless, I'll use the number to see if it is in the ballpark. (Got to start somewhere)
$13.35 mil MC / 55 mil = $.24/oz.
You get "approx" 20.8 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: I don't know how much of the 55 mil oz. is gold, or copper or other minerals, which I value differently. So, I'm really not sure how this company would be priced otherwise.
* EXR.V / EXPTF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.expatriateresources.com/
Dr. Harlan D. Meade, President and CEO
TOLL-FREE: 1-877-682-5474
81.6 mil shares fully dulted. (As of oct 17th)
@ share price .23 CAN x .76 = $.175
$14.3 mil MC
Mostly a base metals company. Zinc. Also has some silver.
From "Sheet 2" from the company:
96.6 mil oz. Silver
565,610 oz. gold x 10 = 5.7 mil oz. silver equiv.
= 102.3 silver equiv oz.
(Not all the properties are owned 100%. Some are only 60% owned with option to acquire more) I will "guestimate" that they own roughly 70% of the 102 silver equiv oz. = 71.4 (And I count nothing for the zinc., althouth this is primarily a zinc company.
+ 457 mil pounds copper
+ 4 Billion pounds zinc.
$1.2 mil CAN capital in the til
no debt.
$14.3 mil MC / 71 oz. silver = $.20
You get "approx" 25 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Significant zinc bonus, about 2.4 times the silver value. Smelter credits are estimated at about 60% zinc, 25% silver, 10% gold and copper, and the rest, other minerals. My method of valuation puts a value on the silver only, not the rest, so this is a better value than my number shows.
I own shares of EXR.V
ECU.V
http://www.ecu.qc.ca/indexen.html
77.1 M shares
@ Share price .135 CAN (x.76 US/CAN) = .102
$8 mil MC
Reserves and Resources: 41 mil oz. silver
Gold equivalents 712,000 x 10 (from the 70:1 silver/gold ratio) = 7.1 mil silver equiv...
(new gold to silver value remember, see the top of this article) 41 mil oz. + 7 mil oz. = 48 mil oz.
$8 mil MC / 48 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.16/oz.
You get "approx" 30.6 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Half the current value is in gold, not silver. If the gold was counted as 70:1, instead of 10:1, the "price" would be about 57% of the price now, or 43% off.
* MNMM.OB (I own shares)
http://www.minesmanagement.com/
7.5 mil shares
@ share price $4.91
$36 mil MC
261 mil oz. silver resources. Previous drilling spent over $100 million drilling the property.
$36 mil MC / 261 mil = $.14/oz.
You get "approx" 35 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Mines Management owned 10% of the rights to their property in Montana. The other 90% owner, Noranda, simply gave up on the property and walked away from their mining claim due to "perpetually" low silver prices and political concerns. That explains the rocketing share price. So, the MNMM group got 90% of the rest of the property FOR FREE!--the value of which, and the nature of this transaction has just barely begun to be understood by the market, given the low relative price.
Their property also has about 1/2 the value (at current prices) in copper, 2 Billion pounds of copper, and 261 mil oz. of silver. Doing the math: 261 mil oz. silver x $5.25/oz. = $1.3 Billion. 2 Billion lbs copper x .85/lb. = $1.7 Billion. Amazing assets in the ground for such a small market cap. Three Billion in asset value / 30 million in market cap, means you are paying 1/100th the price. Surely, the profit will be greater than 1% of the asset value, over the life of the mine.
They do not have an active working mine--Which is a minus. They will need to raise capital to get a mine going. Noranda had several estimates for the cost to build a mine and mill, around $250 million. But it could be more or less depending on how ambitious or economic they decide to do things.
Regarding environmental concerns: Noranda had a fully approved Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that led to successful project permitting, so environmental concerns were not a factor in their departure in 2002.
I own shares of MNMM.OB
HDA.V HULDRA SILVER
no website
Phone:Magnus 1(604) 261-6040
6.924 million shares out (fully diluted)
@ .14/share x .76 = .10
$0.736 mil MC
no debt
HDA's proven and probable reserves stand at 161,000 tons of
ore grading an average 25.6 ounces per ton silver, and 10 percent combined
lead/zinc -- 4.12 mil oz silver, not including the zinc & lead.
According to Magnus, the indicated and inferred reserves total about 180,000
tons at about the same grading -- in other words, a further 4 million ounces of
silver.
~8 mil oz. silver
$0.736 mil MC / 8 mil oz. silver = .092/oz.
You get "approx" 54 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: There is a significant lead/zinc bonus. "The property could be put into production at a capital cost of CAN $3.5 million -- with payback of capital (when equity financed) within two years."
Very small company. I own no shares. I heard the price is really tricky, moves around a lot, and very hard to get into.
UNCN.OB
http://www.uncn.net/
Ray Brown, 530-873-4394
70 mil shares
@ .027 cents/share
$1.89 mil MC
--lease of property will expire June 1 2004, need to raise significant money.
49 mil oz.
$1.89 mil MC / 49 mil oz. = .043/oz.
You have an expiring lease on "approx" 133 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This one seems risky, whether or not they will be able to raise the money to maintain the lease, and will require significant shareholder dilution.
------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------
Explorers:
Explorers deserve their own category, since they cannot be valued by my method of looking at reserves and resources of ounces of silver in the ground. We do not know how many oz. they might have. They are exploring for that. But, given their market caps, and given what I feel is a good price for a silver company of about 30 cents per oz. in the ground, I can calculate how much silver they had better find, in order to justify their current stock price. This valuation method might also help those who have a better feel for how much silver they might find than I do, to value the company. This list, although at the bottom, in no way indicates that these companies are more highly valued than companies listed above. It is also difficult to categorize a company as an explorer, since all silver companies always hold more silver properties that need to be explored. Higher grade deposits, obviously, could be valued significantly more than my arbitrary number of 30 cents/oz.
(The order is by largest market cap first, not by "comparative value".)
IMR.V / IMXPF.OB
http://www.imaexploration.com
43.4 mil Fully Diluted shares
@ share price $1.68 CAN x .76 = $1.27 U.S
$55.4 mil MC / (.30/oz. "Arbitrary Jason Hommel good value" factor) = 184 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: This explorer has found bonanza high grades, which many people consider to be an outstanding benefit, and they are willing to pay much more for such high grades, which have a much higher chance of being able to be mined at a significant profit in today's environment of low silver prices. Some people say the high grades are far more important than how many ounces are found, and they more highly value this factor than my arbitrary "good value" number of 30 cents/oz. In other words, they might be willing to pay up to 50 cents or a dollar for such high grades, and they may be worth that, and they may be right.
(See also SPM.V below, they are next to IMR.V, and at 1/10th the price.)
VGZ VGZ.TO
http://www.vistagold.com/index.php
19-20 mil fully diluted
@ share price $4.23
$54 mil MC
VGZ is a gold exploration company with 8 projects.
(total measured, indicated, inferred)
8. Paredones Amarillos 2 mil oz. gold
7. Mountain View .47 mil oz. gold
6. Maverick Springs 1 mil oz. gold (further drilling in 2003)
5. Long Valley 1.7 mil oz. gold (plus signicant "exploration potential")
4. Hycroft. 1 mil oz. gold ( plus 6 mil oz. gold + 150 mil oz. silver potential)
3. Hasbrouck-Three Hills .74 mil oz. gold (excellent exploration potential)
2. Guadalupe De Los Reyes .5 mil oz gold (includes significant silver values)
1. Amayapampa .6 mil oz.
All total gold: 8.01 mil oz.
All total "exploration potential": 14 mil oz. gold + 150 mil oz. silver.
Counting gold 14 mil oz x 10 = 140 mil oz "silver equiv"
All total "silver equiv." "exploration potential" = 290 mil oz.
$54 mil MC / 290 mil oz. = $.18/oz.
You get "approx" 27 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: I am severely undercounting the gold with my method of counting an oz of gold as only 10 oz. silver. Consider this one has a significant "gold bonus factor". In fact, only about 13% of the value of this company is in silver, at today's prices. Much of the numbers for this one are "exploration potential" or indicated or inferred resource.
It was also difficult to determine whether or not to count this one as an explorer or not. To include the silver, I had to count them as an explorer. They have 8 million oz. of gold in the "inferred and indicated resource" category, which is more certain that "exploration guesses". Considering the 8 mil gold oz. alone: $54 mil MC / 8 mil oz. = $6.75/oz for the gold. If you consider the "exploration potential" of 14 mil oz. gold it's $54 / 14 = $3.85/oz. for the gold.
The gold ounces here are "marginal ounces." They are typically low grade, high cost to mine. They may be significantly profitable with significantly higher gold prices. These are among the cheapest gold ounces in the ground I've seen. Some others in this range might be MYNG.OB and Bralorne and X-Cal. (I own MYNG, Bralorne, and X-Cal and also some GSS.) I might consider buying Vista Gold, but I don't think it's significantly better than the others I own. I'd really rather focus on silver companies right now.
MCAJF.PK
http://www.macmin.com.au/
376 mil shares
@ share price $ .13
$48 mil MC
"Total Inferred Resource is 34.5 million ozs silver but the district is unexplored for epithermal silver and exploration to date suggests a district potential of 50 to 100m ozs Ag or perhaps much more." --"Macmin is a silver focussed company" The Texas Silver Project has in-ground resources of 44.5Moz of silver equivalent
$48 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = $.97oz.
$48 mil MC / 100 mil oz. = $.48oz. ***using this number*** since we are counting these as explorers in this categorgy.
You might get up to 10.25 oz of silver for one oz silver's worth of stock
Additional comments: Note the following url:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/benjaminite101303.html
* CDU.V / CUEAF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.cardero.com/
28.3 million shares fully diluted (assuming all the options and warrants are exercised, which are NOT all "in the money")
@ share price $2.25 CAN (x .76 US/CAN) = 1.71
$48 mil MC
Proven & Probable: NONE! (explorer).
Speculated reserves ~ 100 - 250 or more mil oz.?????
$48 mil MC / (.30/oz. "Arbitrary Jason Hommel good value" factor) = 161 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
$48 mil MC / 250 mil oz exploration potential = $.19/oz.
You might get about 26 oz. silver for one oz. silver worth of stock.
Additional comments: *** I wrote an article on Cardero in January, 2003.
See http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel020803.html
Cardero has three properties in Argentina; actively working on two: Chingolo and Providencia. Chingolo was just measured as twice as large as previously thought. They are trying to prove up these properties.
This one also has potentially high grades in several very large conglomerate deposits that can be mined at a profit today. Their property at Providencia was an active mine, but only a few tons/day. But they hope to make a large open pit project out of the main deposit, processing perhaps a few thousand tons/day.
High grades are very important in today's environment, especially if you can buy them cheaply.
They are also acquiring more silver properties, which is another bonus. This is an aggressive silver company. More properties help to alleviate the risk of an explorer.
I own shares of CDU.V
MAG.V
http://www.magsilver.com
28 mil fully diluted shares
@ share price $2.00 CAN x .76 = $1.52 US
$42.5 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 141 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
--near Quaterra and Western Silver.
Mag moved up a lot in price last week.
TVI.TO / TVIPF.PK
www.tvipacific.com
Dianne (IR) Phone: (403) 265-4356
257.1 Million shares fully diluted
+87 mil shares & warrants as of Oct. 7th, 2003
= 344 mil fully diluted
@ share price $.095 CAN x .77 = $.073 US
$25 mil MC
From p. 1 of 2nd qtr 2003 report: "The company has a policy of not hedging or entering into forward sales contracts."
Cash flow positive. !!!
14 projects in the Philippines.
Producing a dore bar of 96% silver and 4% gold from Canatuan project with the following:
827,000 tonnes 3.98 (au)g/t 141.1(Ag)g/t = .14oz/t gold + 4.98oz./t silver
1,497,000 tonnes 1.26 (au)g/t 58.4(Ag)g/t = .044oz/t gold + 2 oz./t silver
= 115,780 oz. gold + 4,120,000 oz. silver
= 66,000 oz. gold + 3,000,000 oz. silver
Total silver = 7.1 mil oz silver
Total gold = 182,000 oz. gold x 10 (@10:1) = 1.8 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv (Canatuan) = 8.9 mil oz.
+ 2.5 % royalty on "Rapu Rapu" that should be worth about $1 million per year starting within 9-12 months. (a cash source for an explorer is a big plus)
+ they own a drilling company with 20 rigs.
+ they have a "foot in the door" in China.
+ many other promising exploration properties in the Asian Pacific.
$25 mil MC (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 83 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: This company has many properties in the Philippines. This one looks interesting, but there is just too much unknown for me at this point for me to be able to quantify. So, they are an explorer, listed in terms of market cap size. The bonus is they are a producer, and likely are cash flow positive, which are both extremely rare for an explorer.
* NPG.V / NVPGF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.nevadapacificgold.com/
33 mil shares fully diluted
+ 1 mil shares options for executives
= 34 mil shares as of October, 2003
@ share price .94 CAN x .76 = .71 US
$24.28 mil MC
Amador Canyon Silver Project: 50-250 mil tonnes
silver grades average 4 oz. sil/ ton in the deposit
= 200 to 1000 mil oz. silver????? --very speculative at this point. Drilling needs to be done, scheduled $13.2 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 44 mil oz. is all they need to find to justify the current Market cap.
$24.28 mil MC / 200 mil oz. = $.121/oz.
$24.28 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. = $.024/oz.
At $.12/oz.,
The inverse: you "might" get 42 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
At $.024/oz.,
The inverse: you "might" get 207 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: I will add an additional caution note this week, since the share price has moved up so much. This is an explorer. Explorers are risky. Please be careful. Call the company. These are not yet confirmed ounces. This is why there are securities laws that regulate what companies can say about their reserves. These ounces are NOT reserves, they are NOT even resources!!! I did buy NPG, and I do hope it moves up, but this IS an explorer, where it's always risky. And they will need to raise more money to be able to continue exploring. I suspect they may be considering another private placement as soon as they can given the share price is rising.
Explorer in Nevada. They do not really know how much silver they might they have in the Amador Canyon project. They are doing drilling this fall, 2003, as they just did a $2.5 million private placement. The Chariman, David Hottman, says that 90% of the value of the company is in gold, NOT silver, and yet, I'm buying this company for the silver value only, and as if the gold componant was worth nothing. (The gold projects are a free bonus, in my book, and help to alleviate the risk of this explorer.) He has 10 gold projects, and one silver-but it may be big. On the website, for David Hottman's bio, it says he was a founding member of Eldorado gold. "During his tenure, Eldorado's market capitalization grew from Cdn $7 million in 1992 to a peak of Cdn $781 million in 1996." Please note, exploration is risky, and costly.
Two weeks ago, the company proposed stock options for "for directors, officers, consultants and employees". If they now believe the share price to be headed much higher, they would want to lock in options at this low price.
Investors have to be aware of this kind of share dilution. This one is 1 million shares. Thus, it increases the market cap, increasing the "cost", and reducing percentage ownership for existing shareholders. But this still looks like a good deal.
I own shares of NPG.V
MMGG.OB
http://www.metalin.com/site_map.html
TELEPHONE: 208-665-2002
insiders buying on 9-10-2003
14 mil shares fully diluted (Oct 23, 2003)
@ share price $1.65 x .76 = $1.25 US
$17.5 mil MC
zinc & silver
very high grades: 11.8% zinc.
Sierra Mojada is a Silver District
up to 4 Billion pounds zinc.
$17.5 mil MC / JH value .30/oz. = 58 mil oz. they need to find to justify current market cap.
EPZ.V / ESPZF.PK
Esperanza Silver Corp
http://www.esperanzasilver.com/s/Home.asp
fully diluted 20 million shares
@ share price = $1.35 CAN x .76 = US$1.02
$17.25 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 57 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap. "Esperanza Silver Corporation is solely dedicated to the identification, acquisition and exploration of new silver projects."
Additional notes: Management involved with SSRI
IAU.V / ITDXF.PK
http://www.intrepidminerals.com/
(416) 368-4525
30 mil shares
@ share price $.65 CAN x .77 = .50 US
$15 mil MC
Company's exposure is about half to gold, half to silver in several projects.
Joint Venture with BHP Billiton focused on "Cannington" style silver deposits using proprietary BHP Billiton data.
(all figures are "exploration potential")
El Salvador - 38.5 mil oz.
Argentina - 6 mil oz.
Total: 44 mil oz. silver
Total gold: ~690k oz. x 10 (10:1 ratio) = ~ 6.9 mil oz. "silver equiv"
Total: 53 mil oz. "silver equiv". (exploration potential or indicated or inferred, not reserves)
$15 mil MC / 53 mil oz. = $.28/oz.
Hopefully, you get 18 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Their "exploration potential" lies within the "arbitrary good value" range. This explorer/developer tends to focus on good grade, mineable deposits, and form partnerships with other companies to access great information, and expects to produce silver & gold within 2 years, by 2005. They also took the time to contact me, after having seen this silver report.
Since this company is about half gold and half silver, the 10:1 ratio really cuts down the "silver equiv" numbers, so keep in mind the "gold bonus" factor here. But it's like that with a lot of the companies on this list, so keep that in mind, and do your own math if you want to use the 70:1 ratio.
HGM.V HOGOF.PK
http://www.holmergold.com/
Phone: Toll-free tel. 1-877-859-5200
39,486,239 shares
@ share price $.55 CAN x .76 = $ .41 US
$16.4 mil MC / .30 "good value factor" = 54 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Additional comments: silver in cuba. (final feasibility study completed by Rescan-Hatch) gold in Timmins, Ontario.
NJMC.OB
http://www.newjerseymining.com/
15.7 mil shares
@ share price $.54 US
$8.5 mil MC / .30 "good value factor" = 28 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC) is engaged in exploring for and developing gold, silver and base metal ore reserves in the Coeur d'Alene Mining District of northern Idaho also known as the Silver Valley - one of the world's richest silver districts.
MMG.V / MMEEF.PK
http://www.macmillangold.com/
25.6 mil shares outstanding (3q 2003 report June, 2003)
@ share price $.49 CAN x .76 = $.37
$9.5 mil MC /.30 "good value factor" = 31 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
QTA.V QURAF.PK
http://www.quaterraresources.com/
Jay Oness Toll Free: 1-888-456-1112
36.4 mil shares Sept 2002
+ 3 mil undefined "units" Oct 2003
41? mil diluted???
three main properties in North America
@ share price .27 CAN x .76 = $.20 US
$8.4 mil MC ?
EXN.V
http://www.excellonresources.com
2002 annual report:
48 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.18 CAN x .76 = $.13 US
$6.5 mil MC
From http://www.smartstox.com/reports/excellon.html
indicated = 63,400 t x 2738 g/t x .0353oz./g = 6.1 mil oz. silver
inferred = 2100 t x 1,433 g/t x .0353oz./g = .1 mil oz. silver
"gross in-situ value of mineralization is $31.4 million."
$6.5 mil MC / 6.2 mil oz. = $1.05/oz.
Additional comments: (Expensive, unless they find more.) "Excellon ...is exploring and developing".... "a Bonanza grade Silver deposit in Mexico."
* GNG.V / GGTHF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.goldengoliath.com/
604-682-2950
28,361,689 shares
+ 4 mil warrants
= 32.4 mil shares fully diluted
@ share price $.46 x .76 = $.34
$11.32 mil market cap /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 37 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Additional comments:
Silver Explorer in Mexico in the the Sierra Madre mountains: Uruachic.
Doing active drilling on their silver property, Las Bolas, "in a month" (as of Oct. 7th). They hope to take a collection of old silver mines and make them open pittable. They have some very high grades from chip samples from the tunnels, ranging from 100g to 500g all the way up to around and over 1000g/ton of silver.
The largest placee in the recent private placement was Sprott Asset Management, run by John Embry.
From http://www.goldengoliath.com/news03-09-19.html
"A major US television channel is currently producing a documentary on gold exploration, which will feature the Company at work on its Las Bolas property in the Sierra Madre mountains of northwestern Mexico. A film crew from the production company will be on site in October. The Company is pleased with this development, which will provide continent wide exposure at essentially no cost."
(Quite frankly, articles like this one on the internet may give companies better exposure than a TV show, because this is targeted towards investors. Then again, I might be wrong. We'll see.)
I own shares of GNG.V
SPM.V
www.scorpiomining.com.
7.4 mil shares issued
@ share price .88 CAN x .77 = $.67 US
$4.9 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 16.5 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Explorer: property next to IMR.V in Argentina, another explorer
SHSH.PK
www.shoshone-mining.com
12 mil shares
@ .38/share
$4.5 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 15.2 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
In Cour d'Alene, near CDE, HL, & SRLM.PK
ROK.V
http://www.rocamines.com
14.3 mil fully diluted (July 15, 2003)
@ share price .17 CAN x .77 = .13
$1.87 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 6.2 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Explorer.
Others:
ITRO.OB
http://www.itronics.com/index.html
$14.5 mil MC
"Itronics Inc. is the world's only fully integrated photochemical recycling company. It provides photochemical waste collection services, recovers and refines silver from the photochemicals,"
Additional comments: Itronics is not an explorer, and not a miner, and has no reserves. As such, it is extremely difficult for me to value this compared to other silver stocks. I just don't know how to value this one.
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Final Category: Silver stocks FOR YOU and I TO RESEARCH further:
I strongly recommend you try to "get ahead of me," and research these stocks to see if I left out any great values. I probably did. I simply did not have time, or could not yet find information (without using the telephone) on all the three key figures needed to get the "price per oz." in the ground. You need: number of shares fully diluted x share price to get the market cap. Then, you need an estimate of the oz. in the ground. Usually, I've been finding the oz. in the ground resource estimates right off the company webpages, and I get the number of shares by looking for it burried in the financial statements like the quarterlies or annual reports, which are also usually right on the company webpages. Have fun this week!
III.TO IPMLF.PK
http://www.imperialmetals.com/s/Home.asp
Sabine Goetz, Investor Relations - 604.488.2657
Fully Diluted 24,206,764
@ share price $4.80 x .76 = $3.64
$87.5 mil MC
Additional comments: III.TO has gone up 1000%, no typo, up one thousand percent, up by a factor of 10, in the six months from Spring to October, 2003, most in the last month or so since September! And I completely missed the run up. Shows how little I know. I still don't know how much silver or other metals they might have...!!!
EZM.V EZMCF.PK
http://www.eurozinc.com/
Fully Diluted: 224,194,196
@ share price .34 CAN x .76 = $.25
$58 mil MC
Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd (MTB.V)
TEL: (250) 636-9283
@ share price .20
http://www.stockhouse.ca/news/news.asp?newsid=1933880
high grade samples: 3640 g/T Ag to 45.5 g/T Ag
Mascot Silver Lead Mines (MSLM.PK)
http://www.mascotsilver.com/
"Though we have reserves and could conceivably mine them, it frankly makes no sense to do so at current prices. ... The end of the silver bear will bring a number of the now-dormant small companies back to life..."
Malachite Resources NL (MAR.AX)
ROSS RIVER MINL (CDNX:RRM.V)
Silver Buckle Mines Inc (SBUM.PK)
Fischer-Watt Gold Co Inc (FWGO.OB)
Metropolitain Mines Ltd (MEMLA.PK)
Silver Surprize Inc (SLSR.PK)
Standard Silver Corp (SDSI.PK)
Horn Silver Mines Co (HRNS.PK)
Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc (GPXM.OB)
Teuton Resources Corp (TUO.V) TEUTF.PK
GoldSpring Inc (GSPG.OB)
Andean American Mining Corp (AAG.V) ANMCF.PK
Maverick Minerals Corp (MVRM.OB)
Reports such as this usually cost an annual subscription such as $100 - $300 or so.
Articles like this one, that present opportunities as good as these, can tend to move the markets in these stocks. So, be careful when buying. If you place any market orders at the open for any of these small stocks, you might end up buying at prices that are significantly higher than you intended. Limit orders might be better, but then, you run the risk of your order not being filled if the stock price exceeds your limit. And bid / ask spreads such as 15% on small cap silver stocks are not unusual. Markets can especially be moved given the wide readership of gold-eagle.com. I've seen markets moved even by small private newsletters such as lemetropolecafe.com and silver-investor.com (I subscribe to both), which reach much smaller numbers of people than gold-eagle.com. Some of these stocks can move up 15%, 30%, 50% or even over 100% in a single day. Thus, valuations can change very, very quickly. So, be careful, and re-check the numbers if the prices move up. Do your own math.
Also note, the majority of these companies have an emphasis on silver. Most silver is produced as a by product of other mining, like lead or zinc or copper mining. Those companies that primarily produce other minerals are not featured in this report. This also helps to explain and prove, that silver is undervalued. If silver miners cannot mine silver profitably, and this report shows that to be true, then something is wrong with the silver price. It must go higher.
More Information Sources on Silver:
Book recommendations:
"Silver Bulls" by Paul Sarnoff. Details the 1980 rise and fall of silver. Written in 1980.
"Silver Bonanza" by James Blanchard. 1993. Outlines the case for silver.
"The definitive guide to North American mining stocks" by Doug Casey & Jerry Pogue available thru alibris.com & amazon.com. Jerry Pogue is a director of Mines Management. Doug Casey has been #1 booster of mining shares since 1978 publication of "Crisis Investing " and 1982 "Strategic Investing" and 1992 "Crisis Investing for 90's"
The three best sources for commentaries on the silver market that I've found on the internet today are David Morgan, Ted Butler, and a report by "Kazvestor". I subscribe to, and read, David Morgan's newsletter, and I recommend it.
Some of the reserves and resources listed for the above companies, especially the juniors, may have been drilled out and calculated based on old regulations, before the new 43101 compliance rules were put into effect. (Not all are 43101 compliant reserves & resources.)
For information from the SEC on how to protect yourself from a "pump & dump" scam, see the following:
Pump and Dump Schemes
http://www.sec.gov/answers/pumpdump.htm
Pump&Dump.con: Tips for Avoiding Stock Scams on the Internet
http://www.sec.gov/investor/online/pump.htm
Microcap Stock: A Guide for Investors
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/microcapstock.htm
Internet Fraud: How to Avoid Internet Investment Scams
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/cyberfraud.htm
Tips for Checking Out Newsletters
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/cyberfraud/newsletter.htm
Jason Hommel
Jasonhommel@yahoo.com
www.goldismoney.com
Final Disclaimer: I have not received any compensation from any company for writing up my weekly report on "Silver Stocks--Comparative Valuations," neither cash, nor shares, nor options, nor any other sort of compensation. Within the report, I declared my ownership of each company that I own. To repeat, I own shares of the following 10 silver stocks: CZN.TO, MNMM.OB, SRLM.PK, FAN.TO, CDU.V, NPG.V, ASM.V, CFTN.PK, GNG.V, EXR.V. I am not short any companies, and I hold no short positions, no puts, no calls. I reserve the right to buy or sell any stock at any time. GoldSeek.com did not receive compensation for publishing this report and has ownership in Vista Gold & Silver Standard at the time of publication.
-- Posted Sunday, 2 November 2003 | Digg This Article
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