-- Posted Sunday, 9 November 2003 | Digg This Article
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In this weekly report #8, there are 31 silver stocks that list reserves, resources (and exploration potential.) which I calculate by using my "ounce in the ground" formula.
There are 26 "explorers".
There are 19 additional silver stocks with incomplete information.
Total: 76 silver stocks listed.
Price of silver is $5.05 as of Friday, 2:30PM West Coast US, which was used to calculate the following figures. The CAN $ / US $ conversion factor is .7565. I will use .76 for ease.
Stock Symbol / Approx. number of silver oz. "in ground"** for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
HL .57 --current producer
CDE 1.6 --current producer
IPOAF.PK 2.0 --current producer
GRS / GAM.TO 2.5 --current producer
MAI.V / MNEAF.OB 3.2 --just raised $6.6 mil, exploring for more silver.
MFN / MFL.TO 4.1
SIL 4.5
* CZN.TO / CZICF.PK 6.4 --high grades can mine at profit, low start up costs
FSR.TO 6.1 --current producer
* CFTN.PK 7.2 -- (72 EXPT) (72 is "exploration potential" (EXPT)
MGR.V / MGRSF.PK 7.2
PAAS 8.5 --current producer
GQM.TO / GQMNF.PK 8.8
WTZ / WTC.TO 9 -- (20 EXPT)
MR.TO / MRB 10.5
TM.V / TUMIF.PK 10.52 -- (21 EXPT)
MMM.TO 10.7
KBR.V 11.35
SSRI 12.27 --multi-property company, understands silver story
FAN.TO / FRLLF.PK 13 --(21 EXPT) low grades, silver 1/3 the value; also gold & zinc.
* EXR.V / EXPTF.PK 13.8 --significant zinc bonus 60% zinc, 25% silver
ASM.V / ASGMF.PK 14.5 --owns 49% of the Avino mine. + 4 other silver props.
ADB.V 14.5 --actively expanding resources. (Huge gas bonus)
MAN.TO MMALF.PK 16 --Protests in Peru hurt the price.
DNI.V 17 --active on Clifton's property.
* SRLM.PK 21 --(32 EXPT) near the Sunshine)
* SVL.V / STVZF.PK 21 --(38 EXPT) --growing resources.
ECU.V 29 --50% gold bonus;
HDA.V 29 --very tiny, no debt.
* MNMM.OB 36 --60% copper bonus, 40% silver, start up cost ~ $250 mil
UNCN.OB 107 --lease expiring; seems very risky
* = I own shares
Explorers (by market cap):
III.TO / IPMLF.PK
IMR.V / IMXPF.OB
VGZ VGZ.TO 27 --significant gold bonus (almost half of "silver equiv" are gold)
EZM.V EZMCF.PK
MCAJF.PK 10.2
* CDU.V / CUEAF.PK 54-93 "exploration potential"
MAG.V
TVI.TO / TVIPF.PK --current producer of a dore silver bar 96% silver, 4% gold
* NPG.V / NVPGF.PK 45-229 "exploration potential"
BCM.V BCEKF.PK
EPZ.V / ESPZF.PK
MMGG.OB
IAU.V / ITDXF.PK 18
HGM.V / HOGOF.PK
BGS.V
NJMC.OB
MMG.V / MMEEF.PK
QTA.V QURAF.PK
EXN.V 5.22
* GNG.V
SHSH.PK
SPM.V
KRE.V KREKF.PK
LEG.V
ROK.V
ITRO.OB
* = I own shares
** = "in ground" includes all "silver oz. in the ground" the same, but they are NOT EQUAL. Some are more certain and others are more speculative. They range from most certain to least certain such as: "proven & probable reserves," "measured, indicated, inferred resources"
The single number next to each stock symbol above represents the approximate number of ounces of silver in the ground you are buying title to when you invest the equivalent of one ounce of silver by buying shares in the company at current prices. (It does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver.)
To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below. Then, you will go directly to the summary about that company. Since this is a long document, that is much easier than trying to scroll down.
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WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):
For all who tried to get on my email list for this "free weekly silver report": Last week, I was only able to successfully send out email to about 66% of the people on my list. My emails to all hotmail.com addresses and several other big domain name ISP's bounced. I guess they thought it was spam. To be added to my email list, email me at jasonhommel@yahoo.com
I realized this week how few people are value investors, even readers of my report, which stuns me. This report is all about teaching people the fundamentals, and value investing. It seems people just don't believe that a good deal is really, truly a good deal, unless the price is moving up... and only then they will buy it.
Example: EXR.V this week moved up on Monday and Tuesday, about 15% each day. I was buying more of EXR.V on those days, painfully so, because of the rising price, then I stopped. And on Wednesday, the price of EXR.V jumped up 66%! I was stunned! Did all those people who bought on Wednesday just not realize the value of the stock until the price started trending up? Did I get in just in the "nick of time," or did my buying help cause a feeding frenzy? I don't know, but I suspect I was not "lucky," I suspect that my buying, based on the fundamentals of good value, helped to create further interest in the trend followers. I did not tell anyone I was buying, nor did I email any alerts on EXR.V. In fact, EXR.V has been in silver reports numbers 6 and 7, so the opportunity was out in the open for everyone to see.
It is dangerous to be a trend follower. Readers! You need to learn to be leaders, and independent thinkers, who can trust the math and the logic of what you see. The next generation of wealthy people who will own the silver will need to be the entrepreneurs and business leaders. You cannot lead and follow at the same time.
The precious metals markets are manipulated through futures contracts. Excessive promises to deliver metal in the future that cannot be met, drive the price of futures contracts down. They can create endless paper promises. They cannot deliver endless supplies of physical metal. But they can keep the price low until they run out of metal. Thus, they keep away the trend investors, who all look to buy only after the price moves up significantly. And that is exactly how they succeed, because investors are mostly all sheep who move in herds.
I believe the default in the futures market can happen at any time, and is most likely to occur without a significant rise in the price. Why? Because that's the way it happened the last two times. In 1933 and in 1971, they defaulted on paper gold contracts (dollars) before the price went up. The price moved only after the default. Today's metals contracts are not exactly dollars anymore. Metals contracts exist in the futures markets. And whenever they attempt to fix the price low, a default inevitably occurs. Shortages are the result of fixing prices too low. When the shortage hits, it will be time to default. And then, the large buyers of physical silver will simply not be able to order any! Where will you go to buy silver after the futures market defaults?
Most coin shops have perhaps a few bags of 90% available, which is not a significant amount, only around $10,000 worth at today's prices. A large coin shop that does wide distribution may have up to 25-100 bags of silver, which is only about $350,000. I assure you they will not part with that silver at low prices after the delivery defaults in the futures markets.
Yes, gold prices have moved up, and I will say "insignificantly so" in comparison to where the price is headed. I believe gold prices are headed to well over $35,000/oz., to perhaps $100,000/oz., or most likely to infinity dollars per ounce.
Look at the examples of the stocks again. EXR.V moved up 66% in a day last week. CZN moved up 33% in a day a week or so earlier. The price of physical silver will move perhaps over 100% in a day after the defaults in the futures markets. Why wait? Why be a sheep? Be a leader, and get in physical metal BEFORE the defaults hit. You must be a leader to make the biggest money.
There simply is no way around that incontrovertible law of investing. You must buy low, before the mad rush hits, to get the cheapest price.
I strongly recommend that about 20-25% of a portfolio be put into physical silver at this time, and perhaps only 75% in silver stocks. The silver stocks have been rising a lot lately, and if you have not taken profits by buying physical silver, now is certainly a good time to take some profits and put a portion into physical.
So, when do you sell your silver stocks completely to buy physical silver? Here's one method I use. If a silver stock has a ratio of 10 oz. in the ground for 1 oz. worth of stock, then please realize that the company needs to realize well under a "cash cost" of less than 90% of the spot price in order to break even--because there are also other costs, and start up costs. It may still be worth it to invest in a silver stock at that level, because at very high silver prices, "cash costs" may drop to well under 50%. For example, Canadian Zinc (CZN) has a low projected "cash cost" that should create significant profits, especially for people who buy that stock today's prices, as I have written about, even though their "oz in the ground" cost for "one ounce of silver's worth of stock" is relatively low, signifying a high relative price on this list. The zinc bonus creates a picture of "high grades" and low "cash cost" for the silver.
This week, I sold my shares of Farallon and Avino. Their share prices had risen to about twice that of their proposed private placement prices. But with their private placements, the market caps had risen to about 3 times what they were when I first bought. I bought back when they each had about 45 ounces in the ground per ounce worth of silver. I sold when this number was about 15.
This does not mean the share price of Farallon and Avino will not move up significantly from here. In fact, Farallon has continued to move up after I sold, so what do I know? I simply bought EXR.V and some other cheaper silver stocks with the proceeds. And now, EXR.V is valued at about the same price as Farallon and Avino according to my valuation method.
Although I sold a small bit of CZN on Wednesday for diversification, I decided to hold on to most of my CZN because they should prove to be profitable at today's silver and zinc prices, especially for shareholders who buy at current prices. A silver miner that stands to produce profit at today's prices is a great way to diversify a portfolio filled with marginal mines, as my portfolio is. I don't think I sold below a $1.00 US, or $1.30 CAN. So I like CZN. I believe CZN is now my number two holding, and MNMM.OB is now my top holding.
I also sold a few other small positions in gold stocks that were littering my portfolio of silver stocks and other miscellaneous stocks that held a small portion in my portfolio, such as Golden Star, Afrikander Lease, Nova Gold, and AMD--the last stock I owned that was not a precious metals stock.
On Friday afternoon, as I was writing this, I realized that MNMM.OB was lower this week than it was last Friday at $4.91. Yet, I also knew that MNMM.OB was one of the cheapest stocks on my list according to my valuation method as of last Friday. Also, over half the value of MNMM.OB is in copper, and copper was up from 90 cents to 95 cents this week. It was curious that this stock should be down. I expected MNMM.OB to rally last week. It did not. I found that unexpected. So, I bought MNMM.OB yet again, even though I started buying at $1.20, months back, I bought hard again today. Today's environment is different. Today, I know more silver stocks exist. Today, I know MNMM.OB was among the very cheapest stocks on my list today. I suppose I have helped to create an overall uptrend among good value silver stocks in general, and I suppose I'm following the trend a bit myself. But the price of MNMM.OB was down, and my buying pushed it up. I expect MNMM.OB to be one of the best performing silver stocks next week, due to the favorable fundamentals. What else can you buy to get so much silver in the ground that is not "exploration potential," but "inferred resources"? Nothing that I know of. I felt like I was forced to buy it, and I suspect others will feel the same way.
Ted Butler this week has written his best ever explanation of how silver is manipulated and why it remains so cheap. Thank you, Ted, for helping to make a complex subject more easy to understand. It is a "must read!" Send the following url to anyone you know who has money available for investments:
http://www.investmentrarities.com/11-04-03.html
Ted correctly points out that a lower price creates excessive demand from consumers. However, what Ted Butler does not point out, and neglects to mention, is that a low price also creates lack of demand from investors who are "trend investors".
People who invest on the fundamentals cannot be fooled. Only trend investors can be deceived.
Silver is money. It potentially has monetary demand, which will dwarf all consumer demand by factors exceeding 1000 to one. But without a rising price, because so many investors are sheep, and trend investors, monetary demand remains virtually non-existent in comparison to how it will be.
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On November 23-24 I will be at the San Francisco Gold & Precious Metals conference, which is enjoying record-breaking pre-registration.
For details on the show, (free, but you need to register) www.iiconf.com/
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How bullish am I on silver? Think: "75 times infinity" dollars per ounce.
I believe the dollar will eventually be destroyed, likely within my lifetime, hence the "infinity" part. I believe the ratio of silver to gold may be equal during a spike, when the market realizes that above-ground refined silver is more rare than gold. Thus, silver may outperform gold by a factor of 75 times better. Currently, the ratio is 75 ounces of silver can buy one ounce of gold or 75:1.
I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1 ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper money collapse.
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For a list of bullion dealers:
http://www.goldismoney.com/buy-gold.html
If you are an Accredited or Sophisticated investor and want information I may find out about private placement opportunities, (This is not a solicitation for any stock, and I'm not brokering any securities.) email me: jasonhommel@yahoo.com
For a list of Brokers that handle Canadian issues and/or pink sheets:
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
To learn how to track the stocks on this list at yahoo:
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
To learn All about Canadian law, 43-101, about reporting reserves and resources:
http://www.bcsc.bc.ca/Publications/mineral_projects_sept03.pdf
For information on the silver petition:
http://www.PetitionOnline.com/comex/
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This is a list of primary silver stocks.
I count a company's ounces of gold as 10 oz of silver. Why? Because I have a very strong positive bias in favor of silver over gold.
Given my bias in favor of much, much higher silver prices, then, to me, the grades of silver are far less important than buying more oz. in the ground. More oz. in the ground at a lower cost is the most important consideration for me.
My method is simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get (silver reserve totals), and how much does it cost (market cap)? The cost is the market cap divided by the silver reserve totals. Cheaper is better. Buy low, sell high.
Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information below over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to the best of my ability. I may have made mistakes. I probably did. I'm human. I have collected the information from public sources such as company web sites and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This report in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the information may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares can change as a company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through private placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and converted into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated, or split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change, as these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down, depending on drilling results.
This report is not investment advice. This report contains information that may or may not be up to date, and may be inaccurate. I urge you to contact the company and do your own research to verify the information contained in this report.
This report is not an offer to buy or sell any securities. I am not a broker. Only your broker can buy or sell securities for you.
I urge you to consult with your investment advisor to determine whether these kinds of investments are right for you.
I also caution you to be aware of your investment advisor's advice, they are sometimes paid to push things like mutual funds, bonds and other securities that may not be in your best interest to buy. Some investment houses are short physical metal, and thus, they may attempt to strongly discourage you from buying precious metal or precious metals investments. I believe that the propaganda machine in support of frauds such as bonds and the dollar is so strong, that they may even believe what they say when they give bad advice to avoid the safety and protection of precious metals. It is most likely that they simply do not understand the precious metals market as well as you do.
All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of certainty which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the least accurate, there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to estimate. Additionally, every miner always has "more silver properties that need to be explored, which probably contain more silver". For the purposes of this report, I have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these "ounce in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce silver, or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above, that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.
I may be wrong. (I probably make mistakes in every article, and there have been updates and corrections made each week, especially as prices change.)
Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Silver stock companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, or issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the company you may own (dilution). Yet, they need to issue shares to raise capital for drilling, and then an even bigger dilution to build a working mine. They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, or worse, hedge the price of YOUR silver just as it begins to go up if they lock in a price which then proves to be too low if the dollar is destroyed. Mining is a risky business as estimates of assets in the ground can change. There is political risk and environmental risk. They can't franchise the business, are stuck in one location, are subject to government confiscation, or taxes, or union wage negotiations, and corporate looting.
Do your own research. Be responsible for your own investment decisions. Again, please, before investing in a mining company, call up the company, and speak either with the CEO or the Investor Relations contact person.
So, at the very least, check the company web site, read the annual reports, check my numbers, check my math, and email the company. That's what they are there for, to answer your questions, and to speak about the opportunity of the company. Don't trust everything you read over the internet. I am a biased source. I own silver mining stocks. And I'm not a broker, nor an investment advisor. I'm just a private investor trying to make sense of this crazy world, and sharing my information and thoughts on silver companies.
This report may be copied, and transmitted by other people, and may become outdated by the time it reaches you.
I can't tell you how you should invest your money, of course. The reason is that I don't know how convinced you are of the silver bull market, nor do I know how soon you will be needing the money back, so I don't know how long you can wait to see results, nor do I know how much liquidity you need. Nor do I know the size of the money you have to invest. It is very hard to invest large quantities of money in a small market cap stock.
That being said, my investment strategy seems to be working for me, so far. And so, here is how I have valued the following silver companies to make my own investment decisions.
(Market cap is always converted to US dollars and denominated in US dollars because I divide by ounces of silver, which are also denominated in dollars)
BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP)
http://www.bhpbilliton.com/
--'produces 40 mil oz. silver annually from one mine'
Additional comments: unfortunately, BHP has a 49 Billion market cap, so we can't buy BHP for the "silver exposure". IE, $49 Billion / oh, say, 1000 million?????= $49/oz.
Hello? BHP? By all means, keep mining the silver if you want the silver exposure, and want to be in the silver busines. But don't sell the silver. Keep it. Let the profits of your entire company accrue as an increasing physical supply of physical silver. In fact, do as Buffett did, and buy more silver if you can. It would be infinitely easier for you to buy silver from yourself than it would be to buy 40 million ounces of silver from the COMEX, which, today, might be impossible.
Grupo Mexico SA de CV (GMBXF.PK)
http://www.gmexico.com/indexi.html
"Grupo Mexico ranks as the world's third largest copper producer, fourth largest producer of silver and fifth largest producer of zinc."
HL
http://hecla-mining.com/
Phone: (208) 769-4100
109 mil shares @ $6.07 share
$666 million Market Cap (MC)
near zero debt, cash: $113 mil
(est. 2003 production 9 mil oz. silver)
(the La Camorra gold mine, 412,000 oz gold.) ... (x 350/5 = 28 mil silver equivalent oz.)
San Sebastian silver mine, (proven & probably reserves) 8.7 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Greens Creek silver mine (proven & probably reserves) 31 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Lucky Friday mine (proven & probably reserves) 14 mil. (produced 2 mil)
Total silver = 53.7 million oz.
Plus 412,000 oz. gold x 10 = 4.1 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv. reserves = 57.8 mil oz.
(Since my method values silver in the ground as a key asset, I should also value the cash as a "silver asset" which will be "marked to market" if silver goes up, and cash goes down. If HL is smart, they should be able to turn the cash into increased "silver exposure" either through buying silver properties, silver equities, or physical silver.)
($113 million/5.05/oz = 22.3 mil "silver equiv" oz.)
22.3 + 53.7 = 76
$666 mil MC / 76 mil "oz." = $8.76/oz.
You get "approx" .57 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: HL has more oz. than listed in the "proven & probable" category used in this calculation.
Even though I "cheated" this week, and added and counted their papar cash as if it could be silver, it still does not help boost their valuation much. They are still the most expensive company on the list. If HL bought 22 mil oz. of physical silver, they might break the back of the silver market, and significantly boost their own profitability. I think HL investors are paying way too much for HL, and the company insiders seem to have no idea their stock is so overvalued.
Another way to check the value of HL is too look at profit, since they are active miners. They mine 9 million ounces of silver a year. What's the profit on that today? Very little. I think they had a loss in the 3rd quarter. Total "cash costs" are $3.68/oz. (and that includes gold credits) Profit at $5.05/oz. is $1.37/oz x 9 mil oz. annual production = $12.3 million annual profit. Give a PE of 666/12.3 = 54. That's a very high P/E, which means HL is very expensive.
I wrote an article comparing HL to CZN:
Silver Price Expectations of Silver Stock Investors - 30 October 2003
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel103003.html
Why does HL hold $113 million dollars worth of cash at the beginning of a bull market in silver? It makes no sense to me. Cash is trash in inflation. They should be buying physical silver, or, use that cash to buy other silver resources in the ground.
CDE
www.coeur.com
210 mil shares (Issued 32 mil new shares late Oct. 2003)
@ share price $3.35
$703 mil MC
cash $38 mil
San Bartolome (Bolivia) reserves 146 mil silver
Silver Valley Silver reserves 32 mil silver
Rochester reserves 43 mil silver
Cerro Bayo reserves 3.7 mil silver
Total: 224.7 mil silver
(to Produce 14.6 mil oz. silver in 2003)
$703 mil MC / 224.7 mil oz = $3.12/oz.
You get "approx" 1.61 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: CDE issued new shares this week. CDE continued to lose money in third quarter 2003, a loss of 10 cents/share, and they realized low prices for silver sales, $4.77. I believe they have hedged their gold production at low prices.
Again, their listing of ounces is in the "reserves" category (more certain) not the "resources" category, which is less certain. They probably have "resources" but like HL and Industrias Penoles, they give no estimates.
IPOAF.PK
www.penoles.com.mx
397.5 mil shares outstanding (2002 annual unchanged since 2001)
@ $2.60/share
$1,033.5 mil MC
419 proven and probable reserves of silver (from 2002 annual report on website)
$1,033.5 mil MC / 419 oz. silver = $2.46/oz.
You get "approx" 2.04 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Industrias Penoles is the world's top producer of refined silver. They actually derrive more revenue from silver than any other source. But they lost money in 2002.
78.5 million oz. silver produced by the metals division in 2002, and 1 mil oz. gold.
I think Industrias Penoles should stop mining silver if they are doing it at a loss. Basic econ 101, right? Don't engage in uneconomical activity. Perhaps they have a small gain this year with improved prices? Regardless, they should realize that silver in the ground is an asset, and also that silver in the hand is an asset. If they do make a profit, I hope they decide to keep the form of their profits in silver, or at least, pay out a dividend in silver.
Their oz. numbers are "proven & probable reserves", which is much more certain than most of the others which are mostly "inferred and indicated resources." They undoubtedly have "inferred and indicated resources" in addition to the "proven & probable reserves," I just could not find any info on that at the website or in the annual report.
GRS / GAM.TO
http://www.gammonlake.com/
Phone: (902) 468-0614
fully diluted 52 mil shares
@ share price $4.85
$198 MIL MC
http://www.gammonlake.com/Sharholder_message.htm
"With the drilling of over 179 holes totalling over 33,700-metres, the resource calculation contains 761,000 gold ounces and 38.2-million silver ounces in the measured and indicated categories and a further 925,000 gold ounces and approximately 45-million silver ounces in the inferred category."
Total gold: 1.7 mil oz. x 10 = 17 mil silver equiv.
Total silver: 83 mil oz.
Total silver equiv = 100 mil oz.
$198 MIL MC / 100 mil oz. = $1.98/oz.
You get "approx" 2.55 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: At current prices of a 70:1 silver:gold ratio, about 58% of the company is in gold, 41% silver. Gold equiv oz. is about 3 mil oz. total. Cash cost is $85/oz. Life of mine is 7 years. At $385 gold, should produce $900 mil oz. profit over the life of the mine. Not bad for the current $182 MIL MC... even though the "silver in the ground" cost is currently high. Therefore, my valuation method undercounts the gold componant, and undercounts current producers. But that is intended, however, because I believe silver has over 7 times the potential as gold. My comparison method does not say that the companies that cost more can't bring a reasonable profit to the shareholder. My comparison method does tend to say that the profits will be higher for the silver companies that cost less.
There's just not a lot of silver exposure here for the price. But with the high grades, and "gold bonus" the risk is lower, and the profits should be here for those who want more safety in a stock pick.
And they are "rapidly expanding" resources & reserves with round-the-clock drilling of 4 rigs.
MAI.V / MNEAF.OB
http://minandes.com/
IR Tel: (604) 689-7017
Email: ircanada@minandes.com
37 mil shares outstanding on February 5, 2003
finncing to be closing shortly, raised $6.6 mil CAN.
@ 30 cents placed..
+22 mil shares + 1/2 warrant
59 mil shares outstanding
73 mil fully diluted
@ share $.43 CAN x .76 = $.32 US
$23.8 mil MC
owns 49% of the resource: "55 mil silver equiv. oz. resource" back in 2001. AT 60:1 silver:gold when gold was about $300/oz., about half/half silver and gold.
Estimated: 27.5 mil oz silver
Estimated: 27.5 mil oz. "silver equiv" of gold.
/ 6 = 4.58 mil oz. silver equiv at 10:1 ratio.
Total: 27.5 + 4.6 = 32 mil oz. silver equiv. (x .49 = 15 mil oz.)
They will be exploring for more.
2.2 km stretch, open another 2.7, plus 3 other vein systems. significant high grade silver exploration potential. 7000 meters of diamond drilling. Plus a copper project, billion ton ore deposit.
$23.8 mil MC / 15 mil = $1.58/oz.
You get "approx" 3.18 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: In the last report, I did not know how much of the 55 mil oz. was gold or silver. This time, I got better information from the company. About half was gold value, half was silver value at 60:1. So, I count gold less. Then, I learned the deposit was only 49% owned. Then, I leared about the nearly 50% dilution with the new financing. I have never seen a company valuation report change so quickly, from about 20 to 3.
Maybe I should re-classify min andes as an explorer?
MFN MFL.TO
http://www.minefinders.com/index.html
31 mil shares
@ $7.40
$231 mil MC
measured & indicated 2.3 mil oz gold, 116 mil oz. silver inferred 1.1 mil oz. gold, 40 mil oz. silver
Totals: 3.4 mil oz. gold, 156 mil oz. silver.
~ silver conversion = 3.4 x 10 = 34 mil silver equiv + 156 mil oz. silver = 190 mil oz. silver
(only 40% is silver, the rest gold)
$231 mil MC / 190 mil oz. = $1.21/oz.
You get "approx" 4.15 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Well over half the value here is the gold, again, which my method significantly undervalues due to my bias in favor of silver. At 385/oz gold and 5/oz silver, $1309 million (62%) is in gold, and $780 million (37%) is in silver.
SIL
http://www.apexsilver.com/
36.6 mil shares
@ $13.77/share
$504 mil MC
San Cristobal (Bolivia) (proven & probably reserves) 454 mil silver
(forecast capital costs for construction to total approximately $435 million)
(Produced zero silver in 2002)
7.8 billion pounds of zinc, and 2.9 billion pounds of lead
$504 mil MC / 454 mil oz = $1.11/oz.
You get "approx" 4.54 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Apex silver has come down significantly from a high of $18/share in early August, and primarily has institutional investors.
Apex is still way too expensive--especially since they are not producing. But they do have "high grades", but a part of the high grade story is that this one has a lot of zinc. That's an added bonus that is not factored in to my method of valuation. Several writers have been saying zinc prices will be heading up soon, so that's another bonus. Plenty of zinc is especially good if zinc is moving up in price. And, they are not mining now, but are waiting for higher silver prices. That's also a plus. The management also seems to understand that silver will move upwards a lot. Another plus. Finally, George Soros, Billionaire, owns a bit of this one, just under 10% I read recently. Another plus, in general, for the silver market if Billionaires are paying attention to it.
* CZN.TO / CZICF.PK --(I own shares)
http://www.canadianzinc.com/
45.1 mil shares (fully diluted) as of Sept., 2003
65 mil shares fully diluted when the Oct 16th Private placement is filled.
@ Share Price $1.12 CAN x .76 dollar/CAN = $.85 US
$55 mil MC
not mining ($20 mil needed to finish & start the mine) ($100 mil worth of mining infrastructure in place!)
~70 mil oz. (IN ZONE 3 only!! of 12 zones! This company seems to be greatly under-reporting their silver reserves. Their 18 year mine plan consists of zone 3 only, but there are 12 mineralized zones on the property.) Really, perhaps well over 100 mil oz. silver.
$55 mil MC / 70 mil oz. = $.79/oz.
You get "approx" 6.38 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: I wrote an article on Canadian Zinc on Oct. 23 that appeared here: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel102303.html I concluded with a share price target of between US $2.04/share and US $4.42/share.
I wrote another article comparing HL to CZN here:
Silver Price Expectations of Silver Stock Investors
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel103003.htm
I believe Canadian Zinc will have more profit than Hecla Mining, and will also have significantly more exposure to rising silver prices.
I would like the company to privide an estimate of the silver on the rest of their properties, but their mine plan consisted only of zone 3 at the moment. The rest must remain "exploration potential" for now.
To get the mine up and running, they might be able to pay back such debt within 2 years, but I would hope they would avoid debt, and raise the capital as the share price begins to approach $2/share or more, and do a final public offering between $2-4/share.
I note several very, very positive things about this company.
1. This was the mining operation set up by the Hunt brothers, the major silver investors in the silver spike to $50/oz. in 1980 who were destroyed by their own debts and margin calls as a result of the COMEX rule changes and silver short sale manipulation. The Hunts spent $50 million building infrastructure to get the mine running. They were 90% complete when bankruptcy hit. The value of those buildings is now $100 million, and the mine only needs about $20 million (CAN) ($15 mil US) to get the mine up and running. That's much cheaper than other cost estimates of other operations.
2. The 70 million oz. of silver estimate is for zone 3 only. But there are 12 zones on the property. The zone 3 estimate is for a 10 year mine plan that involves mining zone 3 at current metals prices. The company can mine, at a profit, at current silver and zinc prices.
3. High Grade ores:
12% zinc/ton; = 240 lbs. zinc/ton x 42 cents/lb. = $101/ton for the zinc.
10.1% lead/ton = 202 lbs. lead/ton x 27 cents/lb. = $55/ton for the lead.
6 oz. silver/ton x $5.11/oz. = $31/ton for the silver.
0.4% copper/ton = 8 lbs. copper/ton x 90 cents/lb. = $7/ton for the copper.
Total: $194/ton.
4. My method of valuation: If I counted the zinc as silver, then the price of this company would be something like four times cheaper than it is based on my "valuation method". If I counted the lead as silver, then this company would be about 4-5 times cheaper.
5. Zinc and base metals prices are moving up strong. Check http://www.metalprices.com/ for updates.
Update: The recent private placement was just expanded to the maximum size allowed by the shareholders, because it was heavily over-subscribed. Sophisticated and Accredited investors wanted in on this one at .50 cents--and judging by the recent share price, they were not mistaken!
I own shares of CZN.TO
FSR.TO
http://www.firstsilver.com/
37 mil shares
@ share price $1.23 (CAN) x .76 dollar/CAN = $.93 US
$34 mil MC
From the Company's main page at their url:
"As at December 31, 2001, First Silver's mineable reserves were 12 million ounces of silver and inferred resources totaled 30 million ounces of silver. The mine is developing a 1000 plus meter exploration drift to upgrade currently identified inferred resources to mineable ore reserves and to discover new reserves."
12 + 30 = 42 mil oz.
$34 mil MC / 42 mil oz. = $.82/oz.
You get "approx" 6.13 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This is a high grade, producing miner. The high grades are a plus. Some say that a producing miner is also a plus. They are also actively exploring, another plus.
* CFTN.PK (I own shares)
http://www.cliftonmining.com/
801-756-1414 Ken Friedman
45 mil shares fully diluted
@ .82/share US
$36.9 mil MC
http://www.cliftonmining.com/wsreview.htm --source of 100 mil oz. resources est.
http://www.cliftonmining.com/resource.htm
From: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=13531
"A previous geologist has talked about a possible resource of 1 billion oz. of silver, and 5 million oz. of gold."
100 mil oz. silver
+500,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
= 105 mil oz. silver.
up to 1000 mil oz. silver "exploration potential".
Clifton sold up to 50% of the project to Dumont Nickel for $5 million to be paid over time.
50% x 105 = 52.5 million oz.
50% x 1000 = 500 mil oz. "exploration potential"
$36.9 mil MC / 52.5 mil oz. = $.70/oz.
The inverse: you get 7.18 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Note the "exploration potential". This is about 10 times cheaper, like 7 cents/oz, or you "might" get 72 oz. in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
I think the value of this one went up hard last week due to people looking at the exploration value here. Perhaps I should have bought more than I did.
For more info on what's going on with Clifton, see www.dumontnickel.com, JV partner.
Clifton also has a patent on a "super" colloidal silver solution made with 10,000 volts that adds oxygen that gives it more powerful antibacterial properties, and is safer since it uses less silver, which would prevent "blue skin" argyria. Normal colloidal silver that you can make at home with 30 volts works to kill bacteria by disrupting the oxygen metabolism of the cell wall, killing bacteria with oxygen. The market for safe antibiotics is in the multi Billions of dollars.
I own a few shares of CFTN.PK.
MGR.V / MGRSF.PK
http://www.mexgold.com/
18.7 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $2.73 CAN x .76 = $2.07 US
$38 mil MC
inferred resource: 45 mil oz. silver + 1 mil oz gold.
1 mil oz. gold = + 10 mil oz. silver equiv
"The estimate does not address significant additional mineralized structures known to be present on the property, or the potential for large strike extensions of known high-grade zones."
$38 mil MC / 55 mil oz. = $.70/oz.
You get "approx" 7.15 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Gammon Lake is a large shareholder, 50%. The quote above comes from Gammon's website. http://www.gammonlake.com/corporate_profile.htm
PAAS
http://panamericansilver.com/
52 mil shares
@ $9.95
$518 mil MC
D/E .08 cash: $12 mil.
10 silver properties (3 in production)
produced 7 mil oz. silver in 2001:
February 2003 presentation reported total reserves including peru stockpiles of 874.3 million ounces
earnings -$.77/share?!
$518 mil MC / 874.3 mil oz. = $.59/oz.
You get "approx" 8.52 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: PAAS is one of the few silver producers on this list. Thus, they are a "silver miner" as their investor relations person will painstakingly point out. The other companies who do not mine silver, but merely own silver properties and drill them, are not "silver miners," nor are they "silver mining companies". They are "silver properties," or "silver opportunities," or "silver speculations," I guess. Ok, but that still does not justify selling silver at firesale prices, in my book.
PAAS recently went into debt in order to ramp up production. I am strongly biased against debt. But it's a convertible debenture, so the debt can be converted into stock. They know and believe higher silver prices are coming, which is great, and their strategy is to be in solid production mode when the higher price hits. In the meantime, though, the extra production will delay the inevitable silver boom, and they are destroying shareholder value.
GQM.TO / GQMNF.PK
http://www.goldenqueen.com/
info@goldenqueen.com
51.9 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.58 CAN x .76 = $.44 US
$23 mil MC
"This mineable reserve is estimated to contain 1,529,000 oz gold and 24,870,000 oz silver." --from the homepage
gold x 10 = 15.2 mil + 24.8 mil = 40 mil silver equiv.
"The estimated capital cost to the start of production is now U.S.$36 million"
$23 mil MC / 40 mil oz. = .57/oz.
You get "approx" 8.8 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: My method is severely mis-pricing this company due to the large gold componant. At a ratio of 70:1, the value of the gold and silver are as follows: 1.5 mil gold x $370/oz gold = $555 mil; 24.8 mil oz silver x $4.8/oz silver = $119 mil. Thus, this company, at today's prices is 555/674 (82%) in gold and 119/674 (18%) in silver. With values like that, it comes out relatively expensive as a pure silver play (discounting the gold as I do), but they could earn good profits, given that gold is not 10 times the silver price, but 70 times the silver price. The interesting thing here is that the company has a historic ratio of silver to gold, at 16:1.
Ignore my method of valuation for this one, and consider this company has a "huge gold bonus" that may be worth seriously considering if you are not a hard-core silver bug like I am. If they move to production today, then the price will be based on the profits from the gold, not by the "oz in the ground" method of valuation. I have not done a profit estimate for this one.
Looking at the gold alone: $23 mil / 1.5 mil oz. gold = $15.33/oz. for the gold here. But if you want a gold play, Vista gold may be better.
WTZ / WTC.TO
www.westernsilvercorp.com
(formerly western copper)
34.3 mil shares (Oct. 2003)
@ share price $3.87 US
$133 mil MC
(not actively mining)
From the "SNC Lavalin Resource Calculation" March, 2003.
Indicated 158.8 mil oz. silver
Inferred 54.6 mil oz. silver
Total 213.4 oz. silver.
Total 1.94 oz. gold x 10 (at 10:1) = 19.4 silver equiv.
Exploration potential: 500 mil oz. silver, 5 mil oz. gold, from
http://www.mips1.net/mgn03.nsf/UNID/SBAY-5SUBN6
The capital cost of the project to get the mine going is estimated to be US $148,628,400
$133 mil MC / 233 oz. = $.56/oz.
$133 mil MC / 550 oz. = $.24/oz. --exploration potential (may be "resources" by Jan, 2004)
You get "approx" 9 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration Potential = 20
Additional comments: Note the capital cost to get the mining started: $148 million dollars.
A friendly email came in and said that WTZ also has the following other metal resources:
3.73 billion pounds of zinc
673 million pounds of copper
1.3 billion pounds of lead
I note that Canadian Zinc has a similarly-sized 3 billion lbs of zinc, more lead, but with a much smaller market cap, and lower start up costs.
MRB / MR.TO (METLF.OB changed to MRB)
http://www.metal-res.com/
Ritch Hall, 303-796-0229 ext. 304
42.5 mil shares outstanding (2003 1 Qtr report)
$1.60 US (MRB)
$68 mil MC
"The capital cost to develop the mine is estimated at $28.2 million."
From: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031023/235150_1.html
"a total resource of approximately 5.1 million ounces of gold and 91 million ounces of silver. In addition, Metallica's copper resource is estimated at 1.9 billion pounds."
5.1 x 10 = 51 mil oz "silver equiv". + 91 mil silver = 142
$68 mil MC / 142 mil oz. silver = $.47/oz.
You get "approx" 10.54 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: I just got new and better information on this from last week. I did not have numbers for copper and gold, but now I do. There is a significant "gold and copper" bonus here. At 75:1, $375:$5, the percentage of gold to silver value is $1912 million gold, $455 million silver, or 72% gold, 28% silver, not including the copper. At $.90/lb. copper, the copper is also worth $1710 million. Again, my method counts silver only, and counts gold by only 10 times the value of silver, not 70, so factor in a large gold and copper bonus.
TM.V / TUMIF.PK
www.tumiresources.com
Nick Nicolaas IR (604) 657 4058
16.2 fully dilutted shares (Oct. 21, 2003)
@ share price .97 CAN (x .76) = $.74 US
$12 mil MC
20 mil oz resource up to 50 million oz. silver potential but needs to be explored and drilled.
500,000 gold resource x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
Debt free, 2 projects in Mexico.
$12 mil MC / 25 mil oz. = .48 ***I'm using this number***
$12 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = .24 (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 10.52 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Tumi is focused on becoming a "premiere junior silver explorer." It's good to see the focus is in the right metal. Doing active drilling to prove up their projects and increase "resources". Nick Nicolaas really understands the silver story, beliving silver has much greater appreciation potential than gold.
MMM.TO
http://www.mincomining.com/
Fully Diluted Issued & Outstanding 23,133,623
@ $2.14 x .76 = $1.62
$37.5 mil MC
Located in China
gold and silver. Don't yet know how much of either, but a man who emailed me said 80 mil oz. silver???? I was not able to confirm that at the website.
$37.5 mil MC / 80 mil = $.47/oz.
You get "approx" 10.7 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This stock moved up from $1.00 this week, up 144% to a high of $2.44! There is indisputably a raging bull market in silver stocks!
TM.V
KBR.V
http://www.kimberresources.com
(604) 669-2251
28 mil shares fully diluted
@ share price $.74 x .76 = US $.56
$15.7 mil MC
from http://www.smartstox.com/reports/kbr.pdf
30 mil oz. silver resources indicated and inferred
540,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5.4 mil "silver equiv."
$15.7 mil MC / 35.4 mil oz. = $.45/oz.
You get "approx" 11.35 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
SSRI
http://www.silver-standard.com/
40 mil shares (Oct. 2003)
@ share price $7.09
$283 mil MC
debt free, cash: $10 mil
not mining or producing
15 silver properties
measured and indicated resources totaling 300.4 million ounces of silver
plus inferred resources totaling 366 million ounces of silver = 666 mil oz.
2.2 mil oz. gold. Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. silver. (22+666=688 mil oz.)
$283 mil MC / 688 mil oz. = $.41/oz.
You get "approx" 12.27 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: SSRI really is the "silver standard". SSRI has the largest market cap this far down the list, which makes it a more attractive target for people with larger amounts of money to invest.
SSRI continues to add to reserves, either through exploring, or through acquisitions. This company seems to really understand the silver story, and helped to educate me as an investor.
FAN.TO / FRLLF.PK
http://www.farallonresources.com/fan/Home.asp
(604) 684-6365 Erick Bertsch
43.8 mil shares fully diluted (At Aug 31, 2003)
(plus a pp announced on Oct 31 of 15 mil units of 1 share @ .38 1 warrant @ .5 which is 30 mil new shares, to raise $5.7 million)
73.8 mil shares fully diluted as of Oct 31, 2003
@ share price $.75 CAN x .76 = $.57 US
$42 mil MC
Exploration and development in Mexico.
See also hdgold.com (Hunter-Dickinson)
On 4 sulphide deposits out of 16, 29 mil ton grading 89 grams silver/t and 1.57 g gold/t.
Conversion: 89 grams x .0353 oz/gram = 3.14 oz.
RE: those 29 mil tons, they "anticipate increasing resources to 50 mil tonne range..."
3.14 oz. x 29 mil tons = 91 mil oz. silver
1.6 mil oz. gold x 10 = 16 mil oz "silver equiv".
Total: 107 mil oz. silver equiv.
(Exploration potential = x 1.7 = 181)
$42 mil MC / 107 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.39/oz.
$42 mil MC / 181 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.23/oz. --exploration potential
You get "approx" 13 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration potential = 21
Additional comments: This stock was a $3/share stock in 1998. Look at the long term chart. (The price on the long term chart, however, does not include the new shares, so consider the price may have been about 40% less, or only $1.80, not $3.)
Private placement news link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031031/315485_1.html
Nothing done or drilled on the property since 1999. Why not? Because of low zinc prices: 46% of the price of the metals was in the zinc before prices crashed... (This one reminds me of Canadian Zinc. They think they are a zinc company.) The largest componant today is gold, which was surprising to Eric, the IR guy I spoke with. About 1/3 is in silver now.
At today's low metals prices:
2% x 2000 lb = 40 lbs zinc x $.42/lb = $16.8 for the zinc (.37 to .50 lb zinc.)
3.14 oz. x $5.15 = $16 for the silver.
.055421 oz. x $385/oz. = $21 for the gold
(Assuming 100% metals recovery--which is not likely to be the case. It may range from 60% to a higher percentage, depending on extraction methods used and the particular mineral targeted, which constantly change with technology advancements, and price changes in the metals. By the time a mine like this gets running, perhaps in 5 years or so, things may change to allow even greater metal recovery.)
Speaking with the company, they think reserves of ore could be 50 mil tonnes OR MORE, but that they really don't know, and want to issue conservative estimates.
I sold all my FAN.TO last week. I bought FAN.TO just prior to "silver stocks 3" which listed FAN.TO as having a market cap of $10 mil, and a silver oz. in ground of 49 per oz cost. Today, they have a market cap of $42, and a silver oz. in ground value of 13-21. And I still don't know of profits are on the horizon or not. But their private placement appears to be a good deal.
* EXR.V / EXPTF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.expatriateresources.com/
Dr. Harlan D. Meade, President and CEO
TOLL-FREE: 1-877-682-5474
81.6 mil shares fully dulted. (As of oct 17th)
@ share price .42 CAN x .76 = $.32
$26 mil MC
Mostly a base metals company. Zinc. Also has some silver.
From "Sheet 2" from the company:
96.6 mil oz. Silver
565,610 oz. gold x 10 = 5.7 mil oz. silver equiv.
= 102.3 silver equiv oz.
(Not all the properties are owned 100%. Some are only 60% owned with option to acquire more) I will "guestimate" that they own roughly 70% of the 102 silver equiv oz. = 71.4 (And I count nothing for the zinc., althouth this is primarily a zinc company.
+ 457 mil pounds copper
+ 4 Billion pounds zinc.
$1.2 mil CAN capital in the til
no debt.
$26 mil MC / 71 oz. silver = $.36
You get "approx" 13.8 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Significant zinc bonus, about 2.4 times the silver value. Smelter credits are estimated at about 60% zinc, 25% silver, 10% gold and copper, and the rest, other minerals. My method of valuation puts a value on the silver only, not the rest, so this is a better value than my number shows.
I own shares of EXR.V, and bought more last week.
ASM.V / ASGMF.PK
http://www.avino.com/
shares@avino.com
604 682-3701 -- David Wolfin
10.9 mil shares fully diluted, Nov. 2003 (with the 4 mil new shares from PP)
(proposed PP in late Oct 2 mil units at $1.27 (unit = 1 share + 1 warrant at 1.58)
@ share price $2.16 CAN x .76 = $1.64 US
$17.89 mil MC
from: http://www.avino.com/other/goldstock100197.html --in 1997
"How Much Silver Does Avino Have?"
"Operations at Avino's silver mine in Mexico are both open-pit and underground. I examined the reserves and interpolated the tonnage into silver ounces as follows: 28-million ounces proven; 50-million ounces probable and 27 million ounces possible." (Not all are 43101 compliant reserves & resources.--that is an old, third party report.)
--focus is on being silver company. A plus.
They actually have over five silver properties/projects. I'm only have numbers to count for one, the "Avino mine".
= 28 + 50 + 27 = 105
Avino owns 49% of that, or 51.5 mil oz.
-"not considered reserves under the new Canadian National Policy 43-101"
$17.89 mil MC / 51.5 mil oz. = $.35/oz.
You get "approx" 14.5 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional notes: There are 4 additional silver properties that I don't have numbers for. Consider this a "silver bonus"!!!
Mexican mining law once stated that a controlling interest had to be owned by Mexicans, which explains why they only have a 49% interest. That they don't have a controlling interest is a minus. This law has changed. The mine was operational until the mine went into temporary closure in November 2001. So there is in place an existing mine, with working infrastructure, which is a bonus. There is a need for drilling in order to test the potential that was stated in the feasibility study.
I sold all my shares of ASM.V last week.
ADB.V
http://www.admiralbay.com/
604 628 5642 -- Curt Huber-- Business Development info@admiralbay.com
26.2 mil shares fully diluted (as of Oct 7th., 2003)
+ up to 5.2 mil shares in private placement of Oct 17, 2003
31.4 mil shares to possibly be fully dilluted.
@ share price $1.30 CAN x .76 = $.98 US
$31 mil MC
--owns an option to earn 70% interest in "Miera San Jorge's Monte del Favor property in Mexico"
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/030805/d437a0c9d62c76c2377aeec3a7e9a659_1.html
"An historical resource estimate based on underground sampling at Monte Del Favor is reported at 17 million tonnes grading 0.85 g/t gold and 224 g/t silver for a contained 123 million ounces of silver and 460,000 ounces of gold." "While this resource estimate is not fully 43-101 compliant, the Company considers that it provides a conceptual indication of the potential of the property."
460,000 x 10 = 4.6 mil "silver equiv".
127.6 mil oz. x 70% interest = 89.3 mil oz.
$31 mil MC / 89.3 mil oz. = $.35/oz.
You get "approx" 14.53 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Prior grades hit 2-5 kilos silver/ ton. (2000-5000g/ton. 70-176 oz. ton) Very high grades. The project was never properly drilled with modern methods.
Admiral Bay acquired this option to own a 70% interest in this silver property in June, 2003, and the acquisition did not impact their stock price at that time at all. Previously, they were a gas company, and they still have this other gas project, which may be more than half the intrinsic value of the company according to Curt Huber, who understands the silver story as expressed by Ted Butler and David Morgan. My valuation method, obviously, does not give any value for their gas project, which therefore needs to be factored in as a significant "bonus".
They are actively digging now, building a road and uncovering mineralization areas, and tracing surface veins. They will be drilling before the end of October, spending $500,000 before the end of 2003. They have $2 million cash in the till.
MAN.TO MMALF.PK
http://www.manhattan-min.com/s/ReservesAndResources.asp
Larry Glazer CEO
1 800 810 7111
63 mil shares fully diluted
@ $.95/share x .76 = $.72 US
$45 mil MC
Location: northern Peru
t1 deposit inferred and indicated resources of:
1.9 mil oz gold, 64 mil oz silver, 1.94 bil lb copper, 1.35 bil lb. zinc.
t3 deposit inferred 64.1 mil oz. silver, 2.1 mil oz. gold
Total of just these two: 128 mil oz. silver, 4 mil oz. gold x 10 = 40 mil oz. "silver equiv" = 168 mil oz. silver.
In the sulfide deposit of t-1, containing 47.7 mil oz. silver, perhaps only 1/2 the silver is "recoverable". So, minus half that, or 24 mil oz. = 144 mil oz.
$45 mil MC / 144 mil oz. = .31/oz.
You get "approx" 16 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Local peru protests Nov 6th against the proposed mine hurt the stock price a lot. http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031107/minerals_manhattan_1.html
(Keep in mind the myriad risks of owning mining stocks. You need to be willing and able to sustain the total loss of one or more of your stock picks.) Physical silver cannot go to zero.
Significant copper and zinc and gold bonuses here. $180 million to develop project. Cash gold cost projected: $83/oz.gold. The deposit has "been economic for some time now". TG-1 has a positive full feasibility study and and EIA now undergoing government review.
DNI.V
www.dumontnickel.com
56.4 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.36 share x .76 = $.27
$15.43 mil MC
*** Dumont still needs to raise and pay several million to clifton for 50% of the project.
$15.43 mil MC/ 52.5 million oz. = $.29/oz.
You get "approx" 17 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Clifton's JV partner, doing active drilling work right now.
* SRLM.PK (I own shares)
http://www.sterlingmining.com/
7 mil shares
@ share price $6.40
$44.8 mil MC
~185 mil oz. reserves + resource, Sunshine alone
Quote from: http://www.sterlingmining.com/jun112003.html
"The prior operator last estimated the mine reserves at 26.75 million ounces of silver, 10.36 million pounds of copper and 7.05 million pounds of lead (or approximately 28.85 million ounces of silver-equivalent), as well as an additional resource of 159.66 million ounces of silver. "
~100 mil oz. other properties: the 10 sq. miles around the 1/2 sq mile of the Sunshine (rough guess--needs to be explored) *** I use this number*** even though--these extra 100 mil oz. are in the "explorer" category. They need to be drilled and found, although I've heard of estimates as high as 400 mil oz. total for SRLM.PK
$44.8 mil MC/ 185 mil oz. = $.24/oz.
$44.8 mil MC / 285 mil oz. = $.16/oz. (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 21 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential is 32+. )
Additional comments:
(I had been counting the exploration potential differently than others for this one. Now, it is clearly separated, so it is like the rest.)
Sterling Mining acquired the Sunshine mine. Sunshine was one of the big three: Hecla, Couer, & Sunshine. Sunshine went bankrupt. Sterling got the property a few months ago cheap, because they were quick & willing to pay cash. Other buyers wanted to do a full study before making an offer. This company's share price went ballistic as a result. But the company is still way undervalued. Just do the math, people. I own a substantial share of SRLM.PK There were a few great articles written lately for SRLM. See the company web site, above. The best factors, I feel, are as follows:
1. The Sunshine mine is an existing mine that was mining at a profit. The company went bankrupt, not the mine. So there will be no great capital costs for start up, only minimal costs.
2. The Sunshine sits on 1/2 sq. mile, and was never fully explored. Sterling Mining owns 10 square miles of property surrounding the Sunshine, right in the heart of silver country, the location of CDE and HL, the other two big companies at the top of this list.
3. The management of Sunshine understands the silver story. They are on a mission to acquire distressed silver properties at today's cheap prices.
4. The additional share offering, if it closes, could mean 8.5 mil shares, which would mean a market cap of $37 mil. That's a minus. $37 / 260 = .14/oz., which is a little higher price. Beware of additional share issues causing shareholder dilution.
Do not confuse SRLM with SSMR. SSMR is the Sunshine mining company, which went bankrupt. SRLM acquired the Sunshine mine. If you want to buy the Sunshine mine, you buy Sterling Mining Company, SRLM.
I own shares of SRLM.PK
* SVL.V / STVZF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.silvercrestmines.com/
17.8 mil shares
@ share price $1.25 CAN x (.76 US/CAN) = $.95 US
$16.9 mil MC
Indicated resources of silver 30 mil oz. (SOZ.)
Projects in Honduras.
BUT...
*** discovery adds silver*** (perhaps 40-100 mil oz.) see below
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/030902/e028426ecfc575e72750ed7fbd6ab220_1.html
new silver totals are projected to be: 70 - 130 mil oz.
$16.9 mil MC / 70 = $.24/oz.
You get "approx" 21 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential = 38 oz.)
Additional comments: These additional ounces, beyoned the 30 mil oz. are "exploration potential", and are not 43-101 compliant.
Plus, their reserves are potentially "open pitable" which reduces costs.
The share price of SVL.V has kept dropping. Now, they are among the cheapest on the list, so I bought some.
I bought shares of SVL.V last week.
ECU.V
http://www.ecu.qc.ca/indexen.html
77.1 M shares
@ Share price .14 CAN (x.76 US/CAN) = .106
$8.2 mil MC
Reserves and Resources: 41 mil oz. silver
Gold equivalents 712,000 x 10 (from the 70:1 silver/gold ratio) = 7.1 mil silver equiv...
(new gold to silver value remember, see the top of this article) 41 mil oz. + 7 mil oz. = 48 mil oz.
$8.2 mil MC / 48 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.17/oz.
You get "approx" 29 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Half the current value is in gold, not silver. If the gold was counted as 70:1, instead of 10:1, the "price" would be about 57% of the price now, or 43% off.
HDA.V HULDRA SILVER
no website
Phone:Magnus 1(604) 261-6040
6.924 million shares out (fully diluted)
@ .25/share x .76 = .19
$1.3 mil MC
no debt
HDA's proven and probable reserves stand at 161,000 tons of
ore grading an average 25.6 ounces per ton silver, and 10 percent combined
lead/zinc -- 4.12 mil oz silver, not including the zinc & lead.
According to Magnus, the indicated and inferred reserves total about 180,000
tons at about the same grading -- in other words, a further 4 million ounces of
silver.
~8 mil oz. silver
$1.3 mil MC / 8 mil oz. silver = .16/oz.
You get "approx" 29 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: There is a significant lead/zinc bonus. "The property could be put into production at a capital cost of CAN $3.5 million -- with payback of capital (when equity financed) within two years."
* MNMM.OB (I own shares)
http://www.minesmanagement.com/
7.5 mil shares
@ share price $4.80
$36 mil MC
261 mil oz. silver resources. Previous drilling spent over $100 million drilling the property.
$36 mil MC / 261 mil = $.14/oz.
You get "approx" 36 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Mines Management owned 10% of the rights to their property in Montana. The other 90% owner, Noranda, simply gave up on the property and walked away from their mining claim due to "perpetually" low silver prices and political concerns. That explains the rocketing share price. So, the MNMM group got 90% of the rest of the property FOR FREE!--the value of which, and the nature of this transaction has just barely begun to be understood by the market, given the low relative price.
Their property also has about 60% of the value (at current prices) in copper, 2 Billion pounds of copper, and 261 mil oz. of silver. Doing the math: 261 mil oz. silver x $5.25/oz. = $1.3 Billion. 2 Billion lbs copper x .95/lb. = $1.9 Billion. Amazing assets in the ground for such a small market cap. Three Billion in asset value / 30 million in market cap, means you are paying 1/100th the price. Surely, the profit will be greater than 1% of the asset value, over the life of the mine.
They do not have an active working mine--Which is a minus. They will need to raise capital to get a mine going. Noranda had several estimates for the cost to build a mine and mill, around $250 million. But it could be more or less depending on how ambitious or economic they decide to do things.
Regarding environmental concerns: Noranda had a fully approved Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that led to successful project permitting, so environmental concerns were not a factor in their departure in 2002.
I own shares of MNMM.OB. Currently, it is my largest holding. I also participated in the last private placement. But I spent more money on stock at $4.60-$4.80 on Friday this week than I bought in the private placement at $1.20 this summer.
Given that EXR.V rose so much last week, and given that money was thrown at Min Andes recently, there is no other company with a significantly large deposit near to the price range of Mines Management. I expect the value of this company to hit 25 by next week or the week following (25 is the--oz. in the ground per oz. silver of stock). That gives me a target price of $7.02/share.
(Copper prices also moved up, from about .85/lb. a few weeks ago to .95/lb.)
UNCN.OB
http://www.uncn.net/
Ray Brown, 530-873-4394
70 mil shares
@ .033 cents/share
$2.3 mil MC
--lease of property will expire June 1 2004, need to raise significant money.
49 mil oz.
$2.3 mil MC / 49 mil oz. = .05/oz.
You have an expiring lease on "approx" 107 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This one seems risky, whether or not they will be able to raise the money to maintain the lease, and will require significant shareholder dilution.
------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------
Explorers:
Explorers deserve their own category, since they cannot be valued by my method of looking at reserves and resources of ounces of silver in the ground. We do not know how many oz. they might have. They are exploring for that. But, given their market caps, and given what I feel is a good price for a silver company of about 30 cents per oz. in the ground, I can calculate how much silver they had better find, in order to justify their current stock price. This valuation method might also help those who have a better feel for how much silver they might find than I do, to value the company. This list, although at the bottom, in no way indicates that these companies are more highly valued than companies listed above. It is also difficult to categorize a company as an explorer, since all silver companies always hold more silver properties that need to be explored. Higher grade deposits, obviously, could be valued significantly more than my arbitrary number of 30 cents/oz.
(The order is by largest market cap first, not by "comparative value".)
III.TO IPMLF.PK
http://www.imperialmetals.com/s/Home.asp
Sabine Goetz, Investor Relations - 604.488.2657
Fully Diluted 27,735,000 with Nov. 6th Private Placement
@ share price $4.85 x .76 = $3.68
$102 mil MC
Additional comments: III.TO raised $10 million in the recent private placement.
III.TO has gone up 1000%, no typo, up one thousand percent, up by a factor of 10, in the six months from Spring to October, 2003, most in the last month or so since September! And I completely missed the run up.
IMR.V / IMXPF.OB
http://www.imaexploration.com
43.4 mil Fully Diluted shares
@ share price $1.92 CAN x .76 = $1.45 U.S
$63.3 mil MC / (.30/oz. "Arbitrary Jason Hommel good value" factor) = 211 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: This explorer has found bonanza high grades, which many people consider to be an outstanding benefit, and they are willing to pay much more for such high grades, which have a much higher chance of being able to be mined at a significant profit in today's environment of low silver prices. Some people say the high grades are far more important than how many ounces are found, and they more highly value this factor than my arbitrary "good value" number of 30 cents/oz. In other words, they might be willing to pay up to 50 cents or a dollar for such high grades, and they may be worth that, and they may be right.
VGZ VGZ.TO
http://www.vistagold.com/index.php
19-20 mil fully diluted
@ share price $4.23
$54 mil MC
VGZ is a gold exploration company with 8 projects.
(total measured, indicated, inferred)
8. Paredones Amarillos 2 mil oz. gold
7. Mountain View .47 mil oz. gold
6. Maverick Springs 1 mil oz. gold (further drilling in 2003)
5. Long Valley 1.7 mil oz. gold (plus signicant "exploration potential")
4. Hycroft. 1 mil oz. gold ( plus 6 mil oz. gold + 150 mil oz. silver potential)
3. Hasbrouck-Three Hills .74 mil oz. gold (excellent exploration potential)
2. Guadalupe De Los Reyes .5 mil oz gold (includes significant silver values)
1. Amayapampa .6 mil oz.
All total gold: 8.01 mil oz.
All total "exploration potential": 14 mil oz. gold + 150 mil oz. silver.
Counting gold 14 mil oz x 10 = 140 mil oz "silver equiv"
All total "silver equiv." "exploration potential" = 290 mil oz.
$54 mil MC / 290 mil oz. = $.18/oz.
You may get "approx" 27 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: I am severely undercounting the gold with my method of counting an oz of gold as only 10 oz. silver. Consider this one has a significant "gold bonus factor". In fact, only about 13% of the value of this company is in silver, at today's prices. Much of the numbers for this one are "exploration potential" or indicated or inferred resource.
It was also difficult to determine whether or not to count this one as an explorer or not. To include the silver, I had to count them as an explorer. They have 8 million oz. of gold in the "inferred and indicated resource" category, which is more certain that "exploration guesses". Considering the 8 mil gold oz. alone: $54 mil MC / 8 mil oz. = $6.75/oz for the gold. If you consider the "exploration potential" of 14 mil oz. gold it's $54 / 14 = $3.85/oz. for the gold.
The gold ounces here are "marginal ounces." They are typically low grade, high cost to mine. They may be significantly profitable with significantly higher gold prices. These are among the cheapest gold ounces in the ground I've seen. Some others in this range might be MYNG.OB and Bralorne and X-Cal. (I own MYNG, Bralorne, and X-Cal.) I might consider buying Vista Gold, but I don't think it's significantly better than the others I own. I'd really rather focus on silver companies right now.
EZM.V EZMCF.PK
http://www.eurozinc.com/
Fully Diluted: 224,194,196
@ share price .30 CAN x .76 = $.23
$51 mil MC
MCAJF.PK
http://www.macmin.com.au/
376 mil shares
@ share price $ .13
$48 mil MC
"Total Inferred Resource is 34.5 million ozs silver but the district is unexplored for epithermal silver and exploration to date suggests a district potential of 50 to 100m ozs Ag or perhaps much more." --"Macmin is a silver focussed company" The Texas Silver Project has in-ground resources of 44.5Moz of silver equivalent
$48 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = $.97oz.
$48 mil MC / 100 mil oz. = $.48oz. ***using this number*** since we are counting these as explorers in this categorgy.
You might get up to 10.25 oz of silver for one oz silver's worth of stock
Additional comments: Note the following url:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/benjaminite101303.html
MAG.V
http://www.magsilver.com
28 mil fully diluted shares
@ share price $2.22 CAN x .76 = $1.68 US
$47.2 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 157 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
--near Quaterra and Western Silver.
Mag moved up a lot in price last week, two weeks in a row.
* CDU.V / CUEAF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.cardero.com/
Henk Van Alphen -- President
28.3 million shares fully diluted (assuming all the options and warrants are exercised, which are NOT all "in the money")
@ share price $2.16 CAN (x .76 US/CAN) = 1.64
$46 mil MC
Proven & Probable: NONE! (explorer).
Speculated resources, or "exploration potential":
Providencia -- high grades, could have 100-250 mil oz.
Chingolo -- Will finish drilling by secnod week in November -- Henk says, "may have 400-600 mil oz. "exploration potential" in 200-300 mil tons of rock." They got 30-40 grams (1.23 oz.) on the first drill hole, but hope to find 2-3 ounces silver/ton. Please note, "exploration potential" is a non quantifiable, non-regulated, unauthorized type of estimate. It is not 43-101 compliant. Trading decisions should probably not be made on these kinds of shaky estimates, which may be only hype and hope. An investor who wants to be protected by US regulations should wait for geologists to pour over the drill results and produce numbers that comply with 43-101 regulations, that may one day appear in a company press release. (Also, the first time Cardero issued drilling results earlier this year, the stock price was cut almost in half due to lower than expected results. The stock price has since recovered.) Nevertheless, here's how those "exploration potential" numbers work out if you do the math:
$46 mil MC / (.30/oz. "Arbitrary Jason Hommel good value" factor) = 153 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
$46 mil MC / 500-850 mil oz exploration potential = $.092 - .054/oz.
Exploration potential: you might get about 54 - 93 oz. silver for one oz. silver worth of stock.
Additional comments: *** I wrote an article on Cardero in January, 2003.
See http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel020803.html
Cardero has three properties in Argentina; actively working on two: Chingolo and Providencia. Chingolo was just measured as twice as large as previously thought. They are trying to prove up these properties.
Providencia also has potentially high grades in several very large conglomerate deposits that can be mined at a profit today. Their property at Providencia was an active mine, but only a few tons/day. But they hope to make a large open pit project out of the main deposit, processing perhaps a few thousand tons/day.
High grades are very important in today's environment, especially if you can buy them cheaply.
They are also acquiring more silver properties, which is another bonus. This is an aggressive silver company. More properties help to alleviate the risk of an explorer.
I own shares of CDU.V
TVI.TO / TVIPF.PK
www.tvipacific.com
Dianne (IR) Phone: (403) 265-4356
257.1 Million shares fully diluted
+87 mil shares & warrants as of Oct. 7th, 2003
= 344 mil fully diluted
@ share price $.0115 CAN x .76 = $.0874 US
$30 mil MC
From p. 1 of 2nd qtr 2003 report: "The company has a policy of not hedging or entering into forward sales contracts."
Cash flow positive. !!!
14 projects in the Philippines.
Producing a dore bar of 96% silver and 4% gold from Canatuan project with the following:
827,000 tonnes 3.98 (au)g/t 141.1(Ag)g/t = .14oz/t gold + 4.98oz./t silver
1,497,000 tonnes 1.26 (au)g/t 58.4(Ag)g/t = .044oz/t gold + 2 oz./t silver
= 115,780 oz. gold + 4,120,000 oz. silver
= 66,000 oz. gold + 3,000,000 oz. silver
Total silver = 7.1 mil oz silver
Total gold = 182,000 oz. gold x 10 (@10:1) = 1.8 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv (Canatuan) = 8.9 mil oz.
+ 2.5 % royalty on "Rapu Rapu" that should be worth about $1 million per year starting within 9-12 months. (a cash source for an explorer is a big plus)
+ they own a drilling company with 20 rigs.
+ they have a "foot in the door" in China.
+ many other promising exploration properties in the Asian Pacific.
$30 mil MC (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 100 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: This company has many properties in the Philippines. This one looks interesting, but there is just too much unknown for me at this point for me to be able to quantify. So, they are an explorer, listed in terms of market cap size. The bonus is they are a producer, and likely are cash flow positive, which are both extremely rare for an explorer.
* NPG.V / NVPGF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.nevadapacificgold.com/
33 mil shares fully diluted
+ 1 mil shares options for executives
= 34 mil shares as of October, 2003
@ share price .86 CAN x .76 = .65 US
$22 mil MC
Amador Canyon Silver Project: 50-250 mil tonnes
silver grades average 4 oz. sil/ ton in the deposit
= 200 to 1000 mil oz. silver????? --very speculative at this point. Drilling needs to be done, scheduled $13.2 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 44 mil oz. is all they need to find to justify the current Market cap.
$22 mil MC / 200 mil oz. = $.11/oz.
$22 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. = $.022/oz.
At $.12/oz.,
The inverse: you "might" get 45 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
At $.022/oz.,
The inverse: you "might" get 229 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Explorer in Nevada. They do not really know how much silver they might they have in the Amador Canyon project. They are doing drilling this fall, 2003, as they just did a $2.5 million private placement. The Chariman, David Hottman, says that 90% of the value of the company is in gold, NOT silver, and yet, I'm buying this company for the silver value only, and as if the gold componant was worth nothing. (The gold projects are a free bonus, in my book, and help to alleviate the risk of this explorer.) He has 10 gold projects, and one silver-but it may be big. On the website, for David Hottman's bio, it says he was a founding member of Eldorado gold. "During his tenure, Eldorado's market capitalization grew from Cdn $7 million in 1992 to a peak of Cdn $781 million in 1996." Please note, exploration is risky, and costly.
Two weeks ago, the company proposed stock options for "for directors, officers, consultants and employees". If they now believe the share price to be headed much higher, they would want to lock in options at this low price.
Investors have to be aware of this kind of share dilution. This one is 1 million shares. Thus, it increases the market cap, increasing the "cost", and reducing percentage ownership for existing shareholders. But this still looks like a good deal.
I own shares of NPG.V
BCM.V BCEKF.PK
http://www.bearcreekmining.com/s/Home.asp
39,240,457 shares Fully, Diluted
@ $0.63/share x .76 = .48 US
$18.7 mil MC
--About 6 properties in Peru
EPZ.V / ESPZF.PK
Esperanza Silver Corp
http://www.esperanzasilver.com/s/Home.asp
fully diluted 20 million shares
@ share price = $1.40 CAN x .76 = US $1.06
$21 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 71 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap. "Esperanza Silver Corporation is solely dedicated to the identification, acquisition and exploration of new silver projects."
Additional notes: Management involved with SSRI
MMGG.OB
http://www.metalin.com/site_map.html
208-665-2002
14 mil shares fully diluted (Oct 23, 2003)
@ share price $1.70 x .76 = $1.29 US
$18 mil MC
zinc and silver
$18 mil MC / JH value .30/oz. = 60 mil oz. they need to find to justify current market cap.
IAU.V / ITDXF.PK
http://www.intrepidminerals.com/
(416) 368-4525
30 mil shares
@ share price $.74 CAN x .76 = .56 US
$16.8 mil MC
Company's exposure is about half to gold, half to silver in several projects.
Joint Venture with BHP Billiton focused on "Cannington" style silver deposits using proprietary BHP Billiton data.
(all figures are "exploration potential")
El Salvador - 38.5 mil oz.
Argentina - 6 mil oz.
Total: 44 mil oz. silver
Total gold: ~690k oz. x 10 (10:1 ratio) = ~ 6.9 mil oz. "silver equiv"
Total: 53 mil oz. "silver equiv". (exploration potential or indicated or inferred, not reserves)
$16.8 mil MC / 53 mil oz. = $.31/oz.
Hopefully, you get 15 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Their "exploration potential" lies right about at the "arbitrary good value" range. This explorer/developer tends to focus on good grade, mineable deposits, and form partnerships with other companies to access great information, and expects to produce silver & gold within 2 years, by 2005. They also took the time to contact me, after having seen this silver report.
Since this company is about half gold and half silver, the 10:1 ratio really cuts down the "silver equiv" numbers, so keep in mind the "gold bonus" factor here. But it's like that with a lot of the companies on this list, so keep that in mind, and do your own math if you want to use the 70:1 ratio.
HGM.V HOGOF.PK
http://www.holmergold.com/
Phone: Toll-free tel. 1-877-859-5200
39,486,239 shares
@ share price $.47 CAN x .76 = $ .36 US
$14 mil MC / .30 "good value factor" = 46 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Additional comments: silver in cuba. (final feasibility study completed by Rescan-Hatch) gold in Timmins, Ontario.
BGS.V
www.balladnet.com
16.3 mil shares outstanding
(fully diluted?)
@ .93 cents/share x .76 = .71
$11.52 mil MC
Bonanza grade "grab samples" in southern Argentina near IMA
NJMC.OB
http://www.newjerseymining.com/
15.7 mil shares
@ share price $.55 US
$8.6 mil MC / .30 "good value factor" = 28 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC) is engaged in exploring for and developing gold, silver and base metal ore reserves in the Coeur d'Alene Mining District of northern Idaho also known as the Silver Valley - one of the world's richest silver districts.
MMG.V / MMEEF.PK
http://www.macmillangold.com/
25.6 mil shares outstanding (3q 2003 report June, 2003)
@ share price $.48 CAN x .76 = $.37
$9.3 mil MC /.30 "good value factor" = 31 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
QTA.V QURAF.PK
http://www.quaterraresources.com/
Jay Oness Toll Free: 1-888-456-1112
36.4 mil shares Sept 2002
+ 3 mil undefined "units" Oct 2003
41? mil diluted???
three main properties in North America
@ share price .26 CAN x .76 = $.20 US
$8.4 mil MC ?
EXN.V
http://www.excellonresources.com
2002 annual report:
48 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.185 CAN x .76 = $.14 US
$6.7 mil MC
From http://www.smartstox.com/reports/excellon.html
indicated = 63,400 t x 2738 g/t x .0353oz./g = 6.1 mil oz. silver
inferred = 2100 t x 1,433 g/t x .0353oz./g = .1 mil oz. silver
"gross in-situ value of mineralization is $31.4 million."
$6.7 mil MC / 6.2 mil oz. = $1.12/oz.
Additional comments: (Expensive, unless they find more.) "Excellon ...is exploring and developing".... "a Bonanza grade Silver deposit in Mexico."
* GNG.V / GGTHF.PK (I own shares)
http://www.goldengoliath.com/
604-682-2950
28,361,689 shares
+ 4 mil warrants
= 32.4 mil shares fully diluted
@ share price $.38 x .76 = $.29
$9.4 mil market cap /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 31 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Additional comments: Silver Explorer in Mexico in the the Sierra Madre mountains: Uruachic.
Doing active drilling on their silver property, Las Bolas, "in a month" (as of Oct. 7th). They hope to take a collection of old silver mines and make them open pittable. They have some very high grades from chip samples from the tunnels, ranging from 100g to 500g all the way up to around and over 1000g/ton of silver.
I own shares of GNG.V
SHSH.PK
www.shoshone-mining.com
12 mil shares
@ .55/share
$6.6 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 22 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
In Cour d'Alene, near CDE, HL, & SRLM.PK
SPM.V
www.scorpiomining.com.
7.4 mil shares issued
@ share price .82 CAN x .76 = $.62 US
$4.6 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 15 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Kenrich-Eskay Mining Corp (KRE.V) KREKF.PK
http://www.kenrich-eskay.com/
Toll-free 1-888-805-3940
15 mil shares outstanding ??? -email said. call to confirm. Use "fully diluted" to be safe.
@.47 share x .75 = .35
$5.4 mil MC
Adjacent to Barrick's silver property, which is "the fifth largest silver producer in the world".
A claim made in an email to me: "The Property was once almost bought for $34.5-35 million in 1996."
LEG.V
http://www.lateegra.com
Michael Townsend, President
Toll Free: 1-866-669-9377
18.6 mil shares outstanding
@.26/share x .75 = .195
$3.6 mil MC
ROK.V
http://www.rocamines.com
14.3 mil fully diluted (July 15, 2003)
@ share price .18 CAN x .76 = .14
$1.95 mil MC
Others:
ITRO.OB
http://www.itronics.com/index.html
$14.5 mil MC
"Itronics Inc. is the world's only fully integrated photochemical recycling company. It provides photochemical waste collection services, recovers and refines silver from the photochemicals,"
Additional comments: Itronics is not an explorer, and not a miner, and has no reserves. As such, it is extremely difficult for me to value this compared to other silver stocks. I just don't know how to value this one.
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Final Category: Silver stocks FOR YOU and I TO RESEARCH further:
I strongly recommend you try to "get ahead of me," and research these stocks to see if I left out any great values. I probably did. I simply did not have time, or could not yet find information (without using the telephone) on all the three key figures needed to get the "price per oz." in the ground. You need: number of shares fully diluted x share price to get the market cap. Then, you need an estimate of the oz. in the ground. Usually, I've been finding the oz. in the ground resource estimates right off the company webpages, and I get the number of shares by looking for it burried in the financial statements like the quarterlies or annual reports, which are also usually right on the company webpages. Have fun this week!
Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd (MTB.V)
TEL: (250) 636-9283
@ share price .20
http://www.stockhouse.ca/news/news.asp?newsid=1933880
high grade samples: 3640 g/T Ag to 45.5 g/T Ag
Mascot Silver Lead Mines (MSLM.PK)
http://www.mascotsilver.com/
"Though we have reserves and could conceivably mine them, it frankly makes no sense to do so at current prices. ... The end of the silver bear will bring a number of the now-dormant small companies back to life..."
Malachite Resources NL (MAR.AX)
www.malachite.com.au/
Silver Buckle Mines Inc (SBUM.PK)
@ .20/share
Fischer-Watt Gold Co Inc (FWGO.OB)
George Beattie, 208-664-6757
@ .08/share
Silver Mountain Lead Mines Inc (SMLM.PK)
@.05/share
Silver Butte Mining SIBM.PK
http://www.umpqua-watersheds.org/local/mine.html
(mine abandoned in 1996, copper/zinc waste water?)
@.o4/share
Silver Verde May Mining Co (SIVE.PK)
@ .02/share
Metropolitain Mines Ltd (MEMLA.PK)
Silver Surprize Inc (SLSR.PK)
Standard Silver Corp (SDSI.PK)
Horn Silver Mines Co (HRNS.PK)
Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc (GPXM.OB)
Teuton Resources Corp (TUO.V) TEUTF.PK
GoldSpring Inc (GSPG.OB)
Andean American Mining Corp (AAG.V) ANMCF.PK
Langis Silver & Cobalt Mining Co Ltd (YLS.V)
Phone: (416) 628-5936
Articles like this one, that present opportunities like these, can tend to move the markets in these stocks. So, be careful when buying. If you place any market orders at the open for any of these small stocks, you might end up buying at prices that are significantly higher than you intended. Limit orders might be better, but then, you run the risk of your order not being filled if the stock price exceeds your limit. And bid / ask spreads such as 15% on small cap silver stocks are not unusual. Markets can especially be moved given the wide readership of the internet. I've seen markets moved even by small private newsletters such as lemetropolecafe.com and silver-investor.com (I subscribe to both). Some of these stocks can move up 15%, 30%, 50% or even over 100% in a single day. Thus, valuations can change very, very quickly. So, be careful, and re-check the numbers if the prices move up. Do your own math.
Also note, the majority of these companies have an emphasis on silver. Most silver is produced as a by product of other mining, like lead or zinc or copper mining. Those companies that primarily produce other minerals are not featured in this report. This also helps to explain and prove, that silver is undervalued. If silver miners cannot mine silver profitably, and this report shows that to be true, then something is wrong with the silver price. It must go higher.
To learn more about the silver market:
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
For information from the SEC on how to protect yourself from a "pump & dump" scam, see
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
Reports such as this usually cost an annual subscription such as $100 - $300 or so.
You can help to make sure you can keep getting this report for free if you email me.
(But only 66% of my emails are getting through to my list right now. Sometimes they are interpreted as spam by the filters or ISP's.)
Jason Hommel
Jasonhommel@yahoo.com
www.goldismoney.com
Final Disclaimer: I have not received any compensation from any company for writing up my weekly report on "Silver Stocks--Comparative Valuations". Within the report, I declared my ownership of each company that I own. To repeat, I own shares of the following 9 silver stocks: CZN.TO, MNMM.OB, SRLM.PK, CDU.V, NPG.V, CFTN.PK, GNG.V, EXR.V, SVL.V. I do not engage in short selling. I reserve the right to buy or sell any stock at any time. GoldSeek.com has ownership in Vista Gold and Silver Standard at the time of publication and did not receive compensation for publishing this report.
-- Posted Sunday, 9 November 2003 | Digg This Article
