LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com to Launch New Website
By: GoldSeek.com

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse Part 2?
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold and Silver Are Just Getting Started
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Silver Makes High Wave Candle at Target – Here’s What to Expect…
By: Clive Maund

Gold Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On
By: Avi Gilburt

U.S. Mint To Reduce Gold & Silver Eagle Production Over The Next 12-18 Months
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Gold's sharp rise throws Financial Times into an erroneous sulk
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold's unusual strength
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: July-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold's rise is a 'mystery' because journalism always fails to pursue it
By: Chris Powell, GATA

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Why Gold Can Go the Distance



-- Posted Thursday, 22 March 2012 | | Disqus

By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors

 

Gold’s been knocked down lately, but several enduring factors have conditioned the yellow metal for an inevitable comeback.

 

Since the beginning of 2012, gold has trailed its precious metals peers, gaining only about 6 percent compared to double-digit returns for silver and platinum. At the end of February, gold was especially hard hit, following Ben Bernanke’s announcement that there would be no additional quantitative easing and the European Central Bank offering additional LTRO loans to banks.

 

With this news, we’ve witnessed the fairly rare event of bullion falling below its 200-day moving average. In fact, over the past 10 years, there have only been about 30 times (or around 3 times per year) where gold has fallen below its 200-day moving average. And each time, gold has been down for the count for only an average of 10 days. This time around, I believe gold has the resilience to endure, as the long-term drivers remain in place.

 

In his latest Gold Monitor, Dundee Wealth Economics Chief Economist Martin Murenbeeld lists eight factors in support of the bear argument. He points to a stronger dollar, fiscal retrenchment in the European Union, improving equity market confidence, and an exit strategy from the Federal Reserve forecasting a federal funds rate hike well before late 2014 as significant factors driving gold lower.

 

Dr. Murenbeeld adds a caveat: while this bearishness may be a “new, exciting story” for the markets, it doesn’t make the case for gold any less compelling. In fact, he “anticipates market sentiment to flip back to the bullish half of the story as the year progresses.”

 

On the bullish side of the ring, Dr. Murenbeeld says there are 10 positive factors for gold, one of which is monetary reflation. I’ve discussed how global money supply has been growing in recent months, which provides liquidity for the market, but also can devalue the currency. Dr. Murenbeeld reminds readers that “money doesn’t grow on trees; it will have to be borrowed by some government and/or it will have to be printed by some central bank.”

 

While in Hong Kong, Global Resources Fund Portfolio Manager Brian Hicks appeared on Bloomberg to talk about the drivers for oil and gold with John Dawson earlier this week. For gold, Brian says the positive factors are alive and well, namely, rising wealth in China, Europe’s financial instability and high fiscal deficits in the U.S.

 

The U.S. debt situation hasn’t been on investors’ radar for a while, but it’s still a significant factor in gold’s eventual recovery. Take a look at the chart below, which shows the condition of all Federal Reserves Banks’ total assets over the last 10 years. During 2008, total assets jumped vertically and since then, the Fed’s balance sheet has maintained a much higher level.

In addition, real interest rates are still negative for many areas around the world. Historically, negative real interest rates (the inflationary rate is greater than the current interest rate) combined with global stimulative money supply efforts have been an especially powerful combination for gold prices.

 

I believe the yellow metal will go the distance, and with bullion below its long-term average, it makes for a rare and attractive entry point for investors today.

 

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in a specific industry, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.


-- Posted Thursday, 22 March 2012 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.