Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com Radio: Peter Grandich and John Scurci, and your host Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

Currencies and Some 'Out There' Thoughts on Inflation, Stocks, Gold and Miners
By: Gary Tanashian

Gold Data Science
By: Keith Weiner

Gold Market Charts May 2017
By: BullionStar

The Great Reset, Part Two
By: John Mauldin

Chart of the Day - Just as I Predicted...
By: Gary Savage

Technical Scoop - Weekend Update May 28
By: David Chapman

Opec, Like The London Gold Pool, Proving Cartels Always Fail
By: Andrew Hoffman

Government Silver Sales Have Totally Dried Up WHY?
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Bitcoin volatility and why its good for gold
By: GoldCore

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
The Beginning of the End



-- Posted Wednesday, 4 April 2012 | | Disqus

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

As convincing as this rally has been I am confident this is an ending phase and not the start a new secular bull market. Actually the bear market began last year in May but was temporarily aborted by massive Central Bank printing. Let me explain.

The last four year cycle that started in 2002 and bottomed in 2009 was the longest four year cycle in history. It was stretched to these extreme lengths by Bernanke's desperate strategy of debasing the currency to avoid the bear market that should have begun in 2006. Instead the stock market cycle stretched all the way into the spring of 2009.  

I have mentioned before that often a long cycle will be followed by a short cycle. This being the case the current four year cycle should have bottomed in the fall of 2012. That process had begun last summer. 

However, Central Banks around the world, in the futile attempt to avoid a global depression again cranked up the printing presses. The bear market that had begun in May was temporarily aborted. Amazingly I think we are going to see another stretched four year cycle. And this one is going to end just like the last one when the price of oil spiked far enough to collapse the global economy and create another market crash. The next economic downturn won't be a Great Recession; it will be a Great Depression. 

At the moment the stock market is in a runaway move very similar to what unfolded out of the summer 2006 yearly cycle low. These runaway moves are characterized by uniform mild corrections all of similar magnitude and duration. For this particular rally the corrective size has been roughly 25-35 points. This could continue for weeks or months, but all runaway moves end in the same fashion, with a crash or semi crash that wipes out months of gains in a matter of days or even minutes. 

Generally speaking, once a corrective move has run 20% beyond the normal correction size that is the signal that the move is over. Unfortunately, at that point you are usually already into the 'crash day'. This is why at some point one has to say enough is enough, and stand aside, or you risk getting caught in the crash.

When this runaway move comes to an end I'm pretty sure it will signal the beginning of the end for this cyclical bull market. That doesn't mean that we won't see a test or even a marginal break to new highs but I think we are clearly in the final phase of this liquidity driven rally that began in March of 2009.  

We are now at the mercy of oil and the commodity markets. Bernanke's plan to print our way to prosperity is destined to failure. Ultimately he is just going to spike inflation and collapse the global economy, resulting in a worse downturn than what we saw in 2008/09.  

Whether that breaking point is at $120 oil or $160 oil is anyone's guess.

GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers. If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions, email Toby.


-- Posted Wednesday, 4 April 2012 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.