LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com to Launch New Website
By: GoldSeek.com

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse Part 2?
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold and Silver Are Just Getting Started
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Silver Makes High Wave Candle at Target – Here’s What to Expect…
By: Clive Maund

Gold Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On
By: Avi Gilburt

U.S. Mint To Reduce Gold & Silver Eagle Production Over The Next 12-18 Months
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Gold's sharp rise throws Financial Times into an erroneous sulk
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold's unusual strength
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: July-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold's rise is a 'mystery' because journalism always fails to pursue it
By: Chris Powell, GATA

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
A Further Downside Run in Gold and Gold Stocks is Coming! Here’s Why



-- Posted Monday, 9 April 2012 | | Disqus

By Nu Yu, Ph.D.

The Fed’s recent inference that QE3 was not imminent has caused physical gold and silver and the HUI and the XAU to breach their downside support lines. These transitions set up the distinct possibility that we could well see $1,500 gold and the HUI and XAU at 400 and 144, respectively! Let me outline my analyses of the current situation and how it might unfold.

GOLD Now in a Downhill Run

Gold had been in a 20-month long ‘Bump-and-Run Reversal Top’ pattern but, with the recent events, has transitioned from the “Bump” phase to the “Run” phase. This should result in a downhill run in its price to the first support line at around $1,500/ozt.!

According to Thomas Bulkowski, the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern (read here for details) consists of three main phases:

  1. A lead-in phase in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees. Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in height between the lead-in trend line and the warning line which is parallel to the lead-in trend line.
  2. A bump phase where, after prices cross above the warning line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height. Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line.
  3. A run phase in which prices break support from the lead-in trend line in a downhill run.

Below is a chart showing how this trend should unfold:

XAU & HUI Have Now Broken to the Downside

As the two charts below clearly show, both XAU and HUI have broken to the downside from their 7-month ‘Descending Triangle’ patterns. The descending triangle is a bearish formation confined by an upper descending trend line and a lower horizontal line. Once a downside breakout occurs, a price target is projected by measuring the widest distance of the pattern, multiplying it by 54% price target meeting rate, and subtracting it from the breakout. Therefore, XAU could fall to 144 and HUI could fall to 400. Both should decline about 17% measured from the breakout.

Nu Yu, Ph.D.

www.munKNEE.com


-- Posted Monday, 9 April 2012 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.