-- Posted Monday, 28 January 2013 | | Disqus

STATS

London Gold Fix $1,656.75, -$13.50 LME Copper Stocks 341,000 tons -1,900 tons

Gold Stocks 10.952 million ounces +3,665, Silver Stocks 152.268 million ounces +1,317,319

Chinese equity markets were higher overnight as comments from Chinese officials on the need to protect bank profits sparked a rally in mainland shares and that in turn served to lift the market in Hong Kong. European stock indices were off slightly in the face of talk that the markets might have become overdone relative to ongoing sluggish economic conditions. The FTSE was also off recent 4 1/2 years highs on profit taking and a lack of fresh bullishness toward the UK economy. US stocks were mixed in the early action, perhaps off ideas that forced US government spending cuts still can't be ruled out. The US economic report slate is somewhat active today, with a series of regional Fed manufacturing surveys, a Durable Goods report and an NRA Pending home sales release due out early on. While US scheduled data recently has been upbeat, data at the end of last week cast some doubt on the pace of the US recovery and that should make this morning's 2nd and 3rd tier economic data a little more important.

GOLD

Gold has started out on a weak footing with a fresh new low for the move and the lowest price on the charts since January 11th. One might have expected some pressure on gold prices from news overnight of increasing gold production from Russian Gold miner Polyus, as they predicted a double digit rise in 2012 gold output. Adding into the negative news from the Russian gold miner Polyus, were predictions from the company that 2013 gold production could rise by roughly 7%. Demand news from India overnight was also a little negative, as the rush to make purchases of gold ahead of a rise in gold import taxes has left some middlemen holding excess inventory and for some they are now holding gold that was originally priced above the current market. Comex Gold Stocks were 10.952 million ounces up 3,665 ounces at the end of last week and gold derivative holdings also managed a slight rise at the end of last week. However, gold stocks have increased in 13 of the last 20 days and Comex Gold stocks are now at their highest levels in the past 10 sessions. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of January 22nd for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 159,182 contracts, an increase of 7,964 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 204,485 contracts, an increase of 11,579 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 45,302 contracts, an increase of 3,614 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 204,484 contracts. This represents an increase of 11,578 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

SILVER

The March silver contract has forged a lower low overnight and seems to have started the new trading week out on a negative track. With weakness in gold, choppy action in global equity markets and adverse currency market action, the bull camp in silver is having trouble dredging up supportive story lines. Silver saw some bearish private price forecasts overnight and that combined with weakness in platinum prices seems to have emboldened the bear camp out of the gate this morning. As in gold, silver seems to need a revival of a flight to quality focus, but weekend hints of forced US spending cuts and perhaps even a US government shut down, have initially failed to support silver and gold prices. Comex Silver Stocks were 152.268 million ounces up 1,317,300 ounces and that the might get the attention of some silver bears. Comex Silver Stocks are now at the highest levels since 08/15/1997. Stocks have increased 13 of the last 20 days. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of January 22nd for Silver showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 33,950 contracts, an increase of 2,868 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 51,028 contracts, an increase of 5,620 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 17,079 contracts, an increase of 2,753 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 51,029 contracts. This represents an increase of 5,621 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

PLATINUM

The platinum market has started out on a corrective footing in the early Monday US trade. Outside market pressure from gold and silver could combine with generally negative overall macro economic views to give the bear camp a decisive edge. Apparently news of a decline in quarterly platinum production from Anglo American of almost 30%, was largely discounted this morning, as the trade instead seems to be tempering its global platinum demand expectations. A major platinum industry consultancy Johnson/Matthey over the weekend indicated that without the help of changes in the South African rand, South African platinum producers would have been overrun by soaring production costs to mine platinum over the last few years. In short, many think that without a further run up in platinum prices, the world might be faced with further reductions in platinum supply ahead. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of January 22nd for Platinum showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 46,513 contracts, an increase of 2,334 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 52,065 contracts, an increase of 3,118 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 5,553 contracts, an increase of 785 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 52,066 contracts. This represents an increase of 3,119 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. The "combined" spec and fund Net Long position in platinum has hit a new record level at 52,066 contracts and that could leave platinum vulnerable at the start of the new trading week. The fundamentals are bullish but the technicals are a little vulnerable. Initial support is seen down at $1,683 and then not until the $1,675 level.

COPPER

Like the rest of the metals complex, copper has started off on a weak track. Generally weaker equity market action in Europe and the UK, adverse currency market action and a lack of positive economic dialogue from China seems to leave the bear camp with the edge in copper. Chinese copper prices were higher overnight, but that positive sentiment was supposedly overcome late in the trading session by ideas that production of copper was due to rise in 2013 and that the world might be faced with a surplus copper stocks condition. It is also possible that renewed anxiety in the Middle East is undermining demand psychology in copper, especially given the weakness in the rest of the metals complex this morning. However, US copper might take some direction from a rather active US scheduled report slate today but for copper to rally off US data this morning might require a positive sweep of data in the wake of a surprise negative from the US economic report front at the end of last week. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of January 22nd for Copper showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 9,516 contracts, a decrease of 2,407 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 15,749 contracts, a decrease of 474 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 6,232 contracts, an increase of 1,932 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 15,748 contracts. This represents a decrease of 475 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Copper might expect some minor support from news overnight of a 1,900 ton decline in daily LME copper stocks figures.

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-- Posted Monday, 28 January 2013 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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