Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Stock Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Radio : Silver : Stocks - Main 
  
 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Remarkable Value in Junior Miners & Oil Stocks - Frank Holmes Interview
By: GoldSeek.com TV

Currency devaluation: The most destructive policy of all
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor

A New Peaceful, Tranquil Mogambo
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambu Guru

Platinum is world's hottest commodity - Greg Johnson Interview
By: GoldSeek.com TV

Gold & Silver Market Morning
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch

Gold Could Go To Infinity - Ron Paul
By: GoldCore

Asian Metals Market Update
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Lower Again
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com

New Ask the Expert with Eric Sprott: "COMEX Data is Corrupted"
By: Sprott Money News

Rick Rule: This Gold Sell-off is a Normal Event in this Market
By: Henry Bonner

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Goldilocks Ends and ‘Currency Wars’ Begin



-- Posted Friday, 1 February 2013 | | Disqus

By Gary Tanashian

Amid continuing inflationary policy, the US Dollar is at a critical juncture by both daily and weekly charts. Euro targets 142+ and the Yen approaches our target. Currency war kicks off; gold just sits there biding time.

From last week’s eLetter:

“A Goldilocks atmosphere was expertly created in large part due to the fact that Operation Twist (yes, we are still dealing with its effects) by its very definition held long-term interest rates down (buying long-term T bonds) while sopping up any money supply implications and inflationary signals by sanitizing the process with the sales of equal amounts of short-term bonds.”

Policy makers have not found a new way to indefinitely manage the economy. Traditional laws of economics have not been repealed. The Federal Reserve used the equivalent of a macro parlor trick to dampen inflation signals and help produce today’s Goldilocks atmosphere, which features stocks rising now that the public and its mainstream money managers feel the worst is over with respect to the Fiscal Cliff non-event and the Debt Ceiling noise.

But in economics and macro finance, there is is always a price to be paid for unnatural (read: man-made) distortions. The Fed ran out of short-term bonds to sell and now something has to give, as its ongoing inflationary operation is now unsanitized.

A bearish Head & Shoulders pattern has formed on the currency for which the Fed is supposedly a steward. If the neckline breaks, the measured target is 76.50.

The weekly chart of USD targets 74 off of an even more significant H&S, with the baby H&S of the first chart merely representing the right shoulder of the big daddy H&S.

A breakdown in the US dollar would confirm that the recent tick higher in Adjusted Monetary Base is the beginning of a new trend up in inflationary policy.

Unsurprisingly, USD’s chief rival, the Euro is in an inverted and bullish H&S. We have been targeting 142 in NFTRH since the break above the neckline. The Euro appears to be attracting a ‘long Euro/short Yen and gold’ momentum (read: hedge funds) crowd playing the opposite game to that from mid 2011 when Yen and Gold rose strongly in reaction to the Euro crisis.

Yen has been played to the hilt by the hedgies. We have had 106 as the downside target since the neckline to the massive H&S broke down. Yen could be a heck of a contrarian play for a counter trend rally, as the short-covering should be massive.

Meanwhile, the currency that resides outside the system bides its time. Gold is unofficial money and with all the hype about currency war people who are not patient may have expected a rocket launch in the precious metals.

Here we bring it back to the Euro and realize that too many unhealthy would-be gold bugs came aboard during the acute phase of the Euro crisis in 2011. That is being worked off now in gold’s ongoing consolidation.

Bottom Line

US dollar looks bearish. Euro looks to complete its rally to 142+ where it will by the way, encounter a bigger picture DOWN trend line. Yen is bearish but due for a whale of a short-covering bounce soon.

In the near-term some currencies are bullish and some are bearish. But the US Fed, Europe’s ECB and the BOJ are not going to engineer their way out of their respective ‘inflate-or-die’ predicaments. Gold may have a few more months of correction/consolidation but that is a drop in the bucket when viewing its entire history as a monetary anchor to value.

Gary Tanashian

Biiwii.com, Twitter, free eLetter, NFTRH


-- Posted Friday, 1 February 2013 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2014


© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC


GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.
OilSeek.com