-- Posted Monday, 11 February 2013 | | Disqus

STATS

London Gold Fix $1,663.00, -$6.75 LME Copper Stocks 399,775 tons -50 tons

Gold Stocks 10.934 million ounces +3,374, Silver Stocks 158.366 million ounces +975,071

Most Asian markets were closed overnight due to the Lunar New Year holidays. European stocks were showing a minimally positive early track, but the markets weren't showing definitively positive action. US equities were seemingly poised for a positive initial track today but the US scheduled report slate today is nearly empty and the markets in total were in need of a fresh overriding focus. There will be a speech from a US Fed member shortly after mid session today and that might be the main economic event of the session.

GOLD

In retrospect, gold prices generally remained off balance late last week in the wake of a favorable shift in US Trade Balance figures, a pattern of new highs for the move in US stocks and also in the face of mostly adverse currency market action. In other words, gold seems to have remained under pressure from an erosion of flight to safety conditions and in turn gold clearly doesn't seem to currently be able to derive any support from ideas that the world economy is recovering. News at the end of last week of a slight outflow from a gold derivative instrument might also highlight sagging investment interest toward gold. The bear camp might also suggest that a pattern of declining open interest in gold highlights an ongoing bearish fundamental and technical story in gold. With Asian markets mostly closed due to holiday today and Indian gold players seemingly back on their heels due to adverse currency market action, the international influence on US gold prices this morning is mostly negative. In fact, press reports overnight suggest that gold is set to miss long side interest over the coming sessions, due to the Asian holiday closures. Some traders might see the slight rise in speculative long positioning in gold last week fro the COT report as a slight negative. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of February 5th for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 144,495 contracts, an increase of 13,426 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 182,548 contracts, an increase of 10,099 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 38,052 contracts, a decrease of 3,328 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 182,547 contracts. This represents an increase of 10,098 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Comex Gold Stocks were 10.934 million ounces up 3,374 ounces. Gold stocks have increased in 13 of the last 20 days.

SILVER

Like gold, silver performed sloppy last week in the face of persistent gains in US equities and that would seem to suggest that silver isn't currently tracking classic physical commodity market fundamentals. In other words, silver and gold both appear to remain in a partial safe haven liquidation bias and it could take renewed Euro zone turmoil, soft scheduled data or very sharp declines in equities to provide the silver market with fresh buying interest. As in gold, silver might be partially undermined by ongoing Asian holidays and adverse currency market action and if March silver fails to hold above last week's low of $31.295 that could give the bear camp a technical edge. Comex Silver Stocks were 158.366 million ounces up 975,071 ounces. Silver stocks have increased 14 of the last 20 days. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of February 5th for Silver showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 37,365 contracts, an increase of 444 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 54,244 contracts, an increase of 1,293 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 16,879 contracts, an increase of 849 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 54,244 contracts. This represents an increase of 1,293 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

PLATINUM

Platinum prices have managed to buck the generally weaker precious metals trend in the early Monday US action, perhaps because of news of a sharp decline in profits at Impala Platinum. In other words, news of nearly an 80% decline in profits, at a key platinum mining company has once again rekindled concerns of further production losses and that in turn keeps the threat of supply in the headlines. News overnight of Chinese interest in the platinum sector might be providing platinum with a fresh demand lift, even if the Asian markets were closed for holiday. The "combined" spec and fund Net Long position in platinum hit a new record level at 58,605 contracts as of last Tuesday and with prices gaining further ground into last week's highs and platinum finishing last week above the level where the COT report was measured, it is possible that platinum will continue to hold a record long positioning into this week's action. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of February 5th for Platinum showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 52,026 contracts, an increase of 2,064 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 58,605 contracts, an increase of 2,734 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 6,579 contracts, an increase of 671 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 58,605 contracts. This represents an increase of 2,735 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Critical support in April platinum is seen down at $1,712 and then again down at $1,707. With the COT report highlighting a significantly overbought condition, perhaps fresh longs need to wait for a slide back down to $1,700 consolidation support before re-entering the long side of platinum.

COPPER

After a peak in open interest last week, copper prices look to enter the new trading week with an ongoing bullish technical setup and a mostly favorable fundamental track. Despite the Asian holidays, the overall macro economic view has remained positive and with equity markets giving off a positive vibe early today, the bull camp seems to have more ammunition than the bear camp to start the new trading week. In fact, up beat Chinese growth remain in place from last week's news flow and some traders are even drafting support from the news of a rise in speculative positioning in the latest COT report. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of February 5th for Copper showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 16,187 contracts, an increase of 6,824 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 23,921 contracts, an increase of 7,480 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 7,735 contracts, an increase of 658 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 23,922 contracts. This represents an increase of 7,482 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. With US payrolls recently providing a mostly positive fundamental track, copper demand expectations from the US and China look to underpin copper prices, which have shown the capacity to remain within close proximity to last Friday's recovery highs.

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-- Posted Monday, 11 February 2013 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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