-- Posted Monday, 11 March 2013 | | Disqus

STATS

London Gold AM Fix $1,577.50, +.50 LME Copper Stocks 509,425 tons +28,200 tons

Gold Stocks 9.959 million ounces -139,753, Silver Stocks 162.588 million ounces -353,754

Asian equity markets posted mixed results, with the Nikkei stock index up 0.53% and Chinese equity markets generally weaker. European stock markets have started the week under pressure, with Italian and Spanish equities down more than 0.75%. Chinese CPI during February was up 3.2% year-on-year, higher than market expectations. Chinese Retail Sales during February were up 12.3% year-on-year and Chinese Industrial Production during February was up 9.9% year-on-year, both of which were below market forecasts. Japanese Machinery Orders during January were 9.7% year-on-year, well below market estimates. The German Trade surplus during January was 15.7 billion Euros, in-line with market forecasts. US stock futures were posting modest losses during overnight trading, while the Dollar was slightly higher. There are no major US economic numbers to be released during today's session.

GOLD

The gold market has managed to start the new week on a slightly higher track and that gives hope to some bulls that the focus of gold and other metals markets might be shifting away from safe haven and toward classic physical commodity fundamentals. However, gold recently has continued to show a negative reaction to positive global economic news and that was clearly the case in the wake of the payrolls report on Friday, where April gold saw a high to low compacted slide of roughly $18 an ounce. However, April gold did manage to recover quickly and it currently sits above the level where the gold market was trading just ahead of the US payroll report. At least in the early action today, the gold market is being confronted with slightly negative currency market action, which in turn might be the result of a flow of money into the US. The fact that money appears to be flowing to the US because of a building macro economic differential, could mean that gold and silver might expect to see ongoing currency headwinds directly ahead. Hints of a US Budget deal might be a limiting element for gold directly ahead, but if there is a distinct breakdown in the talks again, that might not result in a big increase in flight to quality buying interest in gold, because the lack of a deal now means that sequestered spending cuts will simply remain in place. Comex Gold Stocks were 9.959 million ounces down 139,753 ounces. Comex Gold Stocks are now at the lowest levels since 03/01/2010. Gold stocks have declined in 12 of the last 20 days. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of March 5th for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 95,012 contracts, a decrease of 18,626 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 121,788 contracts, a decrease of 12,510 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 26,776 contracts, an increase of 6,116 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 121,788 contracts. This represents a decrease of 12,510 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

SILVER

May silver enters the new trading week sitting in the upper quarter of last Friday's wide sweeping trading range. Like gold, silver continued to show a negative reaction to US payroll data, as the May silver contract last Friday, saw a high to low slide of roughly 50 cents an ounce in the face of the payroll release. However, silver has managed to return to price levels above the levels where May silver contract was trading at into the key monthly US report, but until silver begins to track positively with US equities, copper and other physical commodities on a consistent basis, silver might continue to fall in the face of positive economic news. The bull camp might hope that a Non-reportable and Non-Commercial combined net long position of 20,000 contracts or less might begin to signal an end to the safe haven liquidation action in silver. However, the Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of March 5th for Silver showed Non-Commercial traders were still net long 17,026 contracts, a decrease of 4,170 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 28,203 contracts, a decrease of 2,703 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 11,177 contracts, an increase of 1,467 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 28,203 contracts. This represents a decrease of 2,703 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Comex Silver Stocks were 162.588 million ounces down 353,754 ounces. Silver stocks have increased 11 of the last 20 days.

PLATINUM

April platinum was initially unable to extend this month's rebound up to new highs, but it was still holding in the upper half of last Friday's trading range. A lack of fresh supply-side news out of South Africa may be keeping further gains in check for now, particularly with subdued global risk attitudes at the start of this week's trading. Declining open interest during platinum's rebound has also been seen as a negative technical factor as well. However, recent developments in Zimbawbe has provided enough supply anxiety to keep April platinum generally underpinned near the upper end of this current recovery rally. Initial support in April platinum will come in around the $1,592.00 area, with trend line support in April platinum today seen at $1,584.90. While platinum prices should maintain upside momentum this morning, any chance of making a sizable rally above and beyond last Friday's high for the move will require a much better tone from outside markets. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of March 5th for Platinum showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 40,140 contracts, a decrease of 3,079 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 45,517 contracts, a decrease of 3,699 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 5,376 contracts, a decrease of 621 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 45,516 contracts. This represents a decrease of 3,700 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

COPPER

Copper prices are finding moderate pressure again at the start of this week's trading, and are now within striking distance of dropping below the March 1st lows for the move. While some traders feel that there have been clear signs of improving demand after the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, Asian copper prices were under pressure early this week. Lukewarm Chinese economic data over the weekend and talk of downsizing Chinese government spending has clearly fed into copper's recent negative tone, which is finding little help from recent strength in global equity markets. The sharp rise in LME exchange copper stocks has also been a key negative factor with copper's inability to sustain a recovery, as they have been widely seen as a gauge of sluggish global demand. LME Copper Stocks were 513,550 tons, up another 4,125 tons. LME Copper Stocks are now at their highest level since late March of 2010, and have increased in 19 of the past 20 sessions. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of March 5th for Copper showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 5,595 contracts, an increase of 4,859 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 7,707 contracts, an increase of 9,672 contracts which represents a change from a net short to net long position. The Non-reportable traders were net short 2,113 contracts, an increase of 4,814 contracts which represents a change from a net long to net short position. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 7,708 contracts. These traders have gone from a net long to a net short position.

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-- Posted Monday, 11 March 2013 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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