-- Published: Friday, 31 January 2014 | Print | Disqus
Adrian Day likes to think long term, and historical trends persuade him that the bull market in gold should continue for years to come. In this interview with The Gold Report, the founder of Adrian Day Asset Management explains why he expects a significant gold price recovery in the near future. In the short term, he counsels investors to choose companies that minimize risk through royalty agreements, joint ventures and robust balance sheets. In other words, companies with the means to seize profit-making opportunities.
The Gold Report: John Makin of the American Enterprise Institute noted on Dec. 20, "In 2013, the Federal Reserve's actual monthly purchase of bonds—the size of quantitative easing (QE)—has averaged $94 billion ($94B), or $9B above the advertised pace of $85B/month." So is all this talk of tapering a shell game?
Adrian Day: Even if the Fed had stuck to the $85B/month as advertised, tapering is a sham. The Fed reduced QE to $75B/month in January and now has announced a further $10B/month reduction. But $65B/month is still an enormous amount of stimulus. Very shortly, the Fed's balance sheet will exceed $4 trillion. We're focused on the wrong thing here.
TGR: Considering all this talk of recovery, the Jan. 10 jobs report was dismal, was it not?
AD: Absolutely. The employment situation in the U.S. is a long way from what one would expect from a decent recovery, let alone a robust recovery.
TGR: U.S. job creation since 2008 has been mostly part-time jobs, temporary jobs and low-paying jobs. How does this lead to increased consumer spending, which is, we are told, the basis of a robust recovery?
AD: Consumer spending is being fuelled by debt. Since 2007, it has increased 23% for the lower 40% of earners. The Fed reports that net household income and net household wealth have now exceeded the 2007 highs. If we break down the numbers, however, we see that net worth is actually down for 90% of U.S. households. For the bottom 50% of households, net worth is down an astonishing 44%.
TGR: We can't have a recovery based on the purchase of yachts and multimillion-dollar New York City condos, can we?
AD: Of course not. We can't have a strong economy based on just 10% of the population getting richer. Frankly, I don't mind whether there's a gap between the rich and the poor—so long as the rich are getting their wealth honestly and not from government handouts. And so long as the middle class is getting richer also.
TGR: President Kennedy said famously that a rising tide lifts all boats. Do we still believe that?
AD: Since 2008, the Fed's stimulus has gone mostly to Wall Street, not to Main Street. That is a fundamental problem for the economy but also for the polis, for the public social good.
It's not that I want the government to do things specifically for the middle class; I just want it to get out of the way. If small businesses are created and can expand and hire people, then we will have a rising tide lifting all boats.
TGR: The International Monetary Fund last month cautioned that debt levels have become so perilous that recovery, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of The Daily Telegraph wrote, "will require defaults, a savings tax and higher inflation." Do you agree?
AD: Debt has become unmanageable. Now, there is nothing wrong with debt per se. When I argue against high government debt, people often respond that in the 19th century the U.S. debt to GDP ratio was higher than today. But that debt was used for capital investment (canals, railroads, etc.), which led to higher economic growth. Today, debt is being used to fund wars and welfare, not investments in the future.
Defaults? Perhaps. Taxes will never deal with the debt problem. You could tax 100% of income above $100,000, and you would fix the U.S. deficit only for a few months. Higher inflation? Perhaps. The one thing Evans-Pritchard didn't mention was currency devaluation. Because the vast majority of U.S. debt is issued in U.S. dollars, the easiest way to liquidate it is to devalue the dollar.
TGR: In a speech last month in Shanghai, you said, "Gold moves in long cycles." Do all commodities move in cycles?
AD: Most do because producers get price signals from the market with a delay. Take the retailer that sells TVs. If sales go down three weeks in a row, the retailer will order fewer units the next month. He gets an immediate price signal. The wholesaler gets signals with a bit of a lag but still relatively early.
But the producer of a rare earth that goes into TVs gets the signal from the market with a much longer lag than the retailer, the wholesaler and the manufacturer. So, metals cycles tend to be very long. And it's far more difficult for miners to cut back or increase production than for retailers to adjust orders.
TGR: Where are we in the current gold cycle?
AD: Over the last 250 years, the shortest cycle on record was the 1970s, just over 10 years. Typically, gold upcycles have lasted close to 40 years. On that basis, we aren't even halfway through the current gold upcycle.
TGR: So last year's price collapse did not indicate the end of the gold upcycle?
AD: Significant corrections in long, secular bull markets are typical. Gold, from top to bottom, has declined 37% in this particular cycle. If you look back to the upcycle of the 1970s, 1975–1976 saw a midcycle correction of 47%. But that was right before gold went up eightfold to more than $800/ounce ($800/oz).
Where are we now? It would be optimistic to assume a V-shaped recovery, but gold has bottomed, and over the next 12 months we are likely to see a slow, if uneven, recovery. The typical recovery comes from a long midcycle correction. We should reach $1,550–1,650/oz in 2014 or early next year, and then gold will start to accelerate. Some gold stocks could recover a lot quicker in expectation of higher prices.
TGR: You noted in Shanghai that gold stocks have lagged behind the gold price in an extraordinary manner. Why?
AD: First, costs have gone up, in some cases more dramatically the price of gold. Second, companies grossly overpaid for acquisitions with no synergies.
For these reasons, we've seen a great deal of new equity dilution. If we look at all-in costs—and not just mining costs— it's been estimated that about half of all mines are losing money. So it's no surprise that gold stocks have done badly, particularly in light of the attractive and simple alternative: gold exchange-traded funds.
TGR: When can we expect gold stocks to recover?
AD: As you know, many gold companies have made big mea culpas. They've fired CEOs and committed to not making the same mistakes. The irony is that with companies and individual mines so cheap now, when it's so difficult for companies to raise capital, this is precisely when the big companies should be making acquisitions.
TGR: Assuming a general recovery in gold stocks, which sector do you think will do best—majors, mid-caps or micro-caps?
AD: Broadly, the seniors will probably move first because when generalist investors move into the gold sector, that's typically where they first put their money.
But I don't look at the gold sector that way. Today, the most important criterion is the balance sheet. Does the company have the cash to carry out its plans? If it must raise cash, can it do so in a nondilutive manner? Some seniors will be able to answer affirmatively, and so will some explorers. That's the test.
TGR: It's said that some companies are too big to fail. Are some gold companies too big to succeed?
AD: There's no systemic reason why some are too big to succeed. Successful exploration entails risks and the understanding most risks will fail. It's natural that lower-level managers in large companies become much more risk averse. The solution is for the majors to use the juniors as their exploration arm.
TGR: Why do you favor the royalty/streaming model?
AD: When a company acquires or creates a royalty on another company, that first dollar in is typically the last dollar in, meaning that the royalty company is not responsible for setbacks. If there are cost overruns, if the shaft floods, if taxes are raised, the company with the royalty is not responsible. The worst that can happen is that royalty payments are reduced or delayed.
TGR: What are the advantages for royalty companies besides risk mitigation?
AD: Staffs tend to be small, so profit margins tend to be high. And royalty companies have exposure to exploration upside. If a company has a royalty on a particular mine, it will typically have a royalty on at least some of the exploration ground around that mine. If there is a discovery on that ground, the royalty owner benefits just as much as if it were the company making the discovery. Royalty companies get most of the upside and very little of the downside.
TGR: Adrian, thank you for your time and your insights.
Adrian Day, London born and a graduate of the London School of Economics, heads the eponymous money management firm Adrian Day Asset Management (www.adriandayassetmanagement.com; 410-224-2037), where he manages discretionary accounts in both global and resource areas. Day is also sub-adviser to the new EuroPacific Gold Fund (EPGFX). His latest book is "Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks."
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-- Published: Friday, 31 January 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com