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Dow Theory market top looks confirmed as US stocks tumble on weak jobs data and precious metals rise

 -- Published: Sunday, 6 April 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

By Peter Cooper

The Nasdaq down by 2.6 per cent led Wall Street lower on Friday after the US non-farm payrolls jobs data came in below expectations and traders sold momentum stocks from the tech sector. The Dow Jones Index failed to top its previous high and so did not confirm a Dow Theory bull market breakout (click here), though it has to fall through 15,372 to predict a new bear market and closed at 16,412.

Gold and silver bounced through $1,300 and $20 an ounce respectively. It’s too early to say if we are about to see a repeat of January in April with a slump in stocks and upturn in precious metals. Monday should be interesting for precious metals if stocks continue to sell-off.

Weak jobs data

Yields on five-year US treasuries dropped the most in two months, widening the gap with 30-year bonds. The US economy added 192,000 jobs last month, well below a median forecast for 200,000, according a Bloomberg survey of economists.

At this level unemployment of 6.7 per cent is low enough for the Fed to continue to reduce its monthly money printing but not worrying enough for a policy reversal. You could see this as a positive indicator for the US economy or as a sign that if the US stock market is now completely dependent on artificial stimulus it is in trouble as this support is gone.

This year gold is up 8.4 per cent with global economic growth faltering and the Russian annexation of Crimea. Gold rose by 1.5 per cent yesterday to $1,303, the biggest gain since mid-March. Silver coasted two per cent higher but closed up just 0.5 per cent.

India buying gold again

There was some bullish news for gold. India’s bullion imports more than doubled in March from February. Last year it was the Indian government’s interference in the market with higher taxation that many blame for the 30 per cent crash in the gold price. If this collapse in demand has been reversed then it is clearly good news for gold demand and prices.

The end of the five-year bull run in US stocks has been widely forecast with numerous warning signs flagged up recently. April is also the end of the tax year for Americans and taking profits at this point in time is therefore even more tempting.

Did you get your ArabianMoney investment newsletter (sign-up here) predicting that April would be a rough month? The short positions we suggested showed big gains yesterday. This has only just started…

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 -- Published: Sunday, 6 April 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

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