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Gold up 10% year-to-date while S&P 500 trails with 3% gain, where would a civil war in the Ukraine take us?

 -- Published: Thursday, 15 May 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

By Peter Cooper

Gold is still ahead of US stocks this year despite a slew of bearish comment from analysts fixated on a chart bottom of $1,050 an ounce. The yellow metal is up 10 per cent year-to-date while the S&P has trailed with less than a three per cent gain, and trades near to a record all-time high.

By comparison gold is some 32 per cent off its all-time high of $1,923 posted almost three years ago. That leaves plenty of room for gold prices to climb back up as stocks start to fall as the rotation out of the small caps and into the majors suggests is already happening.


Equally you could say that the rotation out of stocks and into precious metals since the start of January is a new trend. So much for the chartists, what about the fundamentals?

Data out of China is a bit confusing at the moment because a 30 per cent fall in jewellery sales in Hong Kong may be masking a switch to buying from alternative sources in Mainland China like the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

The election of a pro-business government in India, the world’s second largest consumer of gold, is also widely expected to lead to the removal of gold taxes that depressed volumes last year. However, the biggest market mover is likely to be the Ukraine.

Major buyers are expected to wait until civil war breaks out in Ukraine, or for Russia to attack, which would influence European gas prices and set off a flight to safe haven assets. Recent statements from the Russian foreign minister suggest a civil war is imminent.

Market shock

This is not very likely to be positively received by global stock markets whose recent all-time highs show a blissful state of ignorance about what is to come as a shock. Yesterday gold rallied and stocks fell as the news from Kiev turned ugly.

When markets crash there is usually a winner somewhere and precious metals could still emerge as the surprise winner in this debacle. They have been so far this year. That’s what our sister investment newsletter predicted (click here) and there is more of the same to come.

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 -- Published: Thursday, 15 May 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

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